What Microsoft’s Developer Initiatives Say About the Future of Windows (Premium)

Build is perhaps my favorite Microsoft event because it highlights two of my biggest tech passions: Windows and software development. But that may be changing, which makes this year's show was particularly poignant. Now, Microsoft is marking a shift in which it emphasizes cross-platform capabilities over those that work only on Windows 10.

Even writing those words I need to pause and reflect. Folks, this is huge, and it may be months or even years before we can fully appreciate this shift.

But that doesn't mean that analysis is impossible today. And perhaps the best way to put this past week in perspective is to look back over the previous few Build conferences and see what's changed compared to this year's show. We live in interesting times, and the way I see it, everything is changing.

Note: I'm focusing exclusively on client technologies here for the most part. That's my primary interest, after all, and I have a lot less to say about cloud solutions like Azure.
One billion Windows 10 devices
The biggest news at Build 2015 was that Microsoft promised developers that there would be over one billion Windows 10 devices in the world within two-to-three years. A year later, there were 270 million Windows 10 devices, and today there are 500 million.

Microsoft, of course, reneged on its promise in mid-2016, noting that the original schedule was unrealistic and that it still expected Windows 10 to surpass the one billion devices milestone at some point.

Today, one can argue that 500 million is a big number no matter how you slice it, and that Microsoft has nothing to be embarrassed about. But that number is a red herring: The real issue with Windows 10 isn't the number of active PCs, it's user engagement. And as we see on macOS, too, by the way, just because there are lots of users doesn't mean that they will embrace a mobile app store or its apps. And on both Windows 10 and macOS, engagement is very low.

This is a classic chicken/egg problem. The Windows Store is full of crap, with few professional apps, which turns off users. Meanwhile, because so few users actively browse the store, developers don't see the point in making new apps, let alone using Bridge technologies (see below) to port their existing apps to the Store.

Let's say you're a developer who's created a hugely successful Windows desktop application. You are already targeting 1.5 billion Windows 10 users, including all Windows 10 users. Why on earth would you port that app to the Windows Store in order to reach a tiny number of engaged users?

Now let's say you're a developer who's going to create the next big software application. Why on earth would you target the Windows Store, with its tiny, non-engaged user base, when you could create a web app or a mobile app, either of which has several billions of potential users? Answer: You wouldn't. And that's what's happening in real life.

Point being, that giant market of Windows 10 users never materialized. ...