Some Thoughts About a Surface Pro Refresh and the Spring Hardware Event (Premium)

The other day, I revealed the first concrete information about the next version of Surface Pro. Today, I’d like to expand on that a bit by thinking through what this information means for Surface and the Spring hardware event.

In case you missed it—which makes sense, since I only tweeted it—here’s what I revealed.

Surface Pro 5 will not change the Surface Connect power connector, I was just told. Kaby Lake, nothing dramatic.

I received a number of questions from people about this claim, most of which were of the “what about [insert other feature here]?” variety. But I tweeted what I know, and nothing more. And at the time of the tweet, I didn’t know anything more than what I tweeted. Beyond one very important detail: The veracity of this claim.

Which makes it somewhat irritating that no one who wrote an article about this information even thought to send me an email, ping me on Twitter or Skype, or otherwise contact me to find out more. Despite the fact that doing so would have been easy. And more important, from a journalistic standpoint, might have provided them with more information, a scoop of sorts. It might have also made them feel better (or worse, I guess) about the quality of this information. But no one contacted me. Not one.

This article isn’t about the abject lack of journalistic integrity that now grips my industry, but I mention this because it makes me worried for all of us. But let’s move on.

Since tweeting that information and seeing dozens of articles pop-up around the blogosphere based on nothing more than that one tweet, I’ve received confirmation that my information is accurate from a separate source. I didn’t actually need that confirmation, as I already trusted the original source—who, yes, has in fact seen a new Surface Pro in person—enough to warrant the tweet in the first place. (I didn’t write a post about this topic because I intended to instead analyze what this meant, which is what I’m doing now.)

There have been a lot of questions and much speculation—and much speculation that mistaken for fact—about when and where Microsoft will update its Surface lineup, and of course what Surface devices will be included. But I think we can arrive at something pretty close to the truth by reexamining what we do know.

Let’s start with the when.

For example, we know that Microsoft has long planned a “Spring” hardware event; Microsoft CMO Chris Capossela told Mary Jo Foley and I this publicly, on Windows Weekly, in late December.

In January, was told by a trusted source that this event would occur concurrently with the early April launch of the Windows 10 Creators Update. But the date I was told at that time was April 7, not April 11. (The numbers 7 and 11 rhyme, so that could have been an honest mistake, but it’s more likely that the date has simply changed over time.)

So that’s the when. Spring was always the plan. April was more specifically the plan, secretly, and some date in April could still happen. But Spring runs until the end of June, so Microsoft could have this event at any time. (I personally believe that they should do this before Build, which is in May, but that’s just an opinion. Maybe early May?)

As for where, I expect Microsoft to launch new Surface hardware in New York, as they have for most of the past several launches. That said, the firm may choose instead to have separate reviewers workshops, one on the east coast, and one on the west, and then just announced the products online. I think the first option is more likely, however. What is this based on? Just my experience. I have no inside information about the where this will happen.

Of course, the most important part here is the what. That is, what Surface hardware will Microsoft launch this Spring?

I’ve opined in the past that Microsoft should drop the proprietary and USB-based Surface Connect technology it uses in Surface Book and Surface Pro and replace it with USB-C/Thunderbolt 3. Check out How Microsoft Can Improve Surface Book for 2017 for one example. But Mary Jo’s sources have told her that Microsoft will not update Surface Book this Spring, and while I can’t confirm that independently, my information about Surface Pro this week is complementary, I think.

That is, it only makes sense to switch architectures like that if you do it across all products that utilize this technology. A new Surface Pro with USB-C/Thunderbolt 3 doesn’t make sense if the Surface Books you’re selling alongside it still use the old Surface Connect technology. Microsoft would have to stock multiple, incompatible power supplies in it stores, for example. You either make this change or you don’t.

A less-than-major Surface Pro refresh also suggests further strategy on Microsoft’s part. I called this thing Surface Pro 5 in the tweet because that’s how my source referred to it. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Microsoft market this as a Surface Pro 4 refresh, much like Surface Book with Performance Base is not a new generation of product, but rather just a new set of models for the original generation. It’s a 1.1, or 1.5, not a 2.0.

Moving to Kaby Lake, which is the codename for the latest generation of Intel processors, would also bring with it some interesting opportunities, even if the rest of the revised Surface Pro was basically identical to today’s product. (Same screen, same pen, same Surface Connect, and so on.) Kaby Lake is more efficient and slightly more powerful. But I think this change opens up Microsoft for something a bit more interesting, too.

As you must know, the cancellation of Surface 3 last year has left the Surface line-up with an important and obvious hole: Microsoft doesn’t have a lower-end and more affordable device for education. But with Kaby Lake, Intel is offering an improved Y-series processor (formerly Core m) which would be ideal for a new low-end Surface Pro SKU that could replace Surface 3 in the lineup. And I have a pretty fun idea about how that product might work.

I think the base model Surface Pro 4 refresh/5—whatever they will call it—will come with Windows 10 Cloud, the coming version of Windows 10 that only runs Store apps. It’s just too perfect, and it positions this device as the logical replacement for the simpler, safer, and more easily manageable Windows RT-based Surface devices as the past. This device would need to be priced as was Surface 3.

To be clear, that is just speculation. But it’s also based on some evidence and some common sense.

If this happens, Surface Book could continue forward as-is for this cycle, though I recommend a price cut across the board. Perhaps those on-again-off-again sale prices could just become the norm. There have been rumors about an affordable, non-detachable Surface Book, but I’m wondering now if this isn’t something for the future. Or perhaps an ARM-based prototype that Microsoft can show off—and maybe give away—at Build in May. Again, to be clear, that is just speculation.

Also, Surface Studio could receive a midstream refresh too, and there’s no reason this one has to upset current owners: Keep the hardware intact as-is but offer a Performance Base-style upgrade with new higher-end models with a better dGPU.

There could also be new Surface peripherals, from the obvious—updated Type Covers—to something more obscure, like a Surface Dial-style surprise. About this, I have absolutely no information.

So let me recap what’s happening and look to the future.

Microsoft is still having a Spring hardware event. It will announce some new Surface hardware at this event, but it appears that, with Surface Pro, at least, we’re looking at a fairly minor revision, and not the USB-C/Thunderbolt 3 update that I believe this entire product lineup needs. This suggests that a second hardware event, in late 2017, is likely. And that more dramatic series of improvements to various Surface devices is still to come.

It will be interesting to see what Microsoft does, but I have already advised the company to strike quickly: With the recent Apple woes—it’s silly apology to pro customers and Microsoft’s J.D. Power tablet win—now is the time. If I ran Microsoft PR, I’d email the press with the following: “We’re not apologizing, we’re announcing. Save the date.” It would set the stage for an awesome Spring.