Thinking About Google v. Microsoft (Premium)

With Microsoft and Google hosting their respective developer conferences back to back this month, it’s hard to not compare their competing visions for the future.

And this is a big topic. So big that I won’t be able to cover all of the issues, and the nuances, that this conversation deserves. In some ways, this is an almost infinite conversation, an ever-shifting battle in which both sides have great ideas, great products, and, also, some curious lapses. How we view these firms and their strategies will change over time. Will be different in some ways by next week, even. It’s weird.

But I would like to raise a few issues that have come to mind as I’ve watched, and rewatched, the companies’ keynote events from each conference.

I’ve written about my admiration for Microsoft’s new positioning of Windows 10, that the firm has accepted its new role in personal computing. And that’s all true, and is still true a week later.

And yet. I’m also struck by the fact that Microsoft’s position is defensive and, as I pointed out recently, could be met by abject ambivalence by users. In other words, they’re doing what they can. But it may not matter in the slightest.

Google, by comparison, already owns the most popular and dominant personal computing platform, Android, and it is moving forward very quickly with new OS versions, new apps, and new capabilities. Even if Google sat still, Microsoft would make little headway against this juggernaut on the client.

That said, the selective omissions were interesting. Where Microsoft never talked up Windows Store momentum (because there isn’t any) and only had a handful new UWP apps to talk about, Google likewise glossed over Android apps on Chromebook—delayed numerous times and no closer to reality today than it was in December—and commingled its usage numbers between devices and apps to hide the fact that its own in-house devices simply are not selling well.

Both companies talked up AI. A lot. But I feel like Google’s approach will be more successful, directly on end user devices, because Android is so popular. This is the benefit Microsoft once enjoyed with Windows, but the Android market is both bigger and more engaged. What a world to live in: You own the dominant platform and it just keeps growing, and extending its lead.

Both companies discussed products and services that had nothing to do with developers. Somewhat amusingly, the star of each show was a photo app, essentially. And sorry, Microsoft, but Google Photos is way better than anything you offer because it works so automatically. Even if Microsoft does deliver on the AR magic they showed off in Story Remix, it’s going to be too complex for most people. Which was the problem with traditional video editors like Movie Maker too.

Both companies gave too much stage time to VR/MR/AR, a set of related technologies that shows no sign of ever gaining mass acceptance. Microsoft’s Windows Mixed Reality platform is particularly disappointing because it’s just VR, and because phones can do this already. But Google is equally distracted here, but with one exception: Phone-based AR (through Project Tango) makes a lot more sense than a headset you must use in a room somewhere. I’m thinking of museums, in particular, where AR on a phone could show you what a dinosaur looked like for real when you’re standing in front of its skeleton.

And. Hm.

Despite being a Microsoft guy, I find Google’s vision of the future to be more compelling right now. This troubles me, to be honest.

I hear the complaints about Google—privacy, especially—but the only one that actually bothers me is that Google is really an advertising firm, in the sense that over 90 percent of its revenues have always come from selling ads. Which I hate.

Microsoft, by contrast, is moving to a subscription model that some have criticized. But this model ultimately is about paying Microsoft directly for a service received, and I respect that. (That’s one of the reasons we went with a subscription service here at Thurrott.com: We’re just asking you to pay for what we do, which seems fair. We’re not pretending that some online store full of mobile crap that is our real business is a source for good deals that will benefit you.)

To be fair to Google, its services are good enough to pay for. And what I’d really like from this company is that direct relationship, and to not see ads everywhere. In fact, I’d even be OK with them doing anonymous data collection to bolster those ad efforts, as long as I never saw the actual ads. I know this isn’t a popular viewpoint.

I also know that any embrace of Google will be seen in some quarters as a betrayal of sorts. But Google feels sort of inevitable, doesn’t it? And some of its products and services—Search, of course, but also Maps, Photos, and many others—aren’t just great, they’re indispensable. Like Microsoft, maybe it’s time we accepted reality and made the best of it.

I don’t know. I’m going to watch these keynotes again and keep mulling this one over. And of course, Apple’s developer event, WWDC, is on the horizon as well. I wonder if that will bring any soul searching.