What to Watch for with Xbox in 2021 (Premium)

As we enter the final stretch of 2020, it’s an important time of the year to start looking ahead to figure out the path for some of our favorite product lines. And understanding what will make them ‘tick’, if you will, helps to keep expectations in-line for the year ahead.

This post was spawned, get it..spawned, anyway from a question asked about what I am looking forward to in 2021 for Xbox and it breaks down into five areas of focus. There are certainly additional areas of interest that should not be overlooked but as someone who writes extensively about the gaming brand, these are the questions that are currently outstanding in my brain as the doors of 2020 slam shut.

When the Honeymoon Ends

As of the writing of this post, the availability of next-gen consoles is constrained and we will not see this pressure subside until roughly late spring, according to Microsoft. But when the supply does finally meet demand, this timeline will be interesting to observe as it will be put in direct contention against the supply of the PlayStation 5.

Which console will reach ‘casual availability’ is a race to understand the demands of the hardware but without knowing the supply coming out of the factories, too much weight should not be placed on this metric. That being said, the longer the consoles are difficult to acquire, the stronger the demand, and the better this is for both Sony and Microsoft.

But at some point, the honeymoon for both manufacturers will end and they will need to go from supplying the dedicated fans who will buy the consoles because they exist to attracting customers who are on the fence or those who were not previously interested in the devices.

How Microsoft (and Sony) will do this will come down to marketing and games being released. Both companies have done this rodeo before but with a new console and a new generation of gamers, the challenges are constantly evolving for finding ways to stand out in the console crowd.

Bethesda Acquisition Closing

One of the ways that Microsoft hopes to stand out in that crowd is by acquiring studios. Last year, the company announced the intent to acquire Bethesda and its portfolio of titles. The 7.5 billion dollar acquisition sent ripples through the space-time fabric of the gaming industry.

But as of today, for legal reasons, the acquisition has not closed but is expected to sometime in the first half of 2021. Until the acquisition closes, Microsoft is not making any decisions for Bethesda but what I will be watching for is what happens when it does close.

Will Microsoft make any official statements about title exclusivity? Will they pull titles from other platforms? I’m not expecting them to immediately claw back IP into only the Xbox platform but I would expect them to provide clarification on future titles.

Game Delays

We all know the story of 2021 by now, delays are an inevitable part of the software industry and the pandemic only extrapolated the difficulty of shipping on a specific date. Halo Infinite was the most public-facing Xbox exclusive title to be delayed and then there are titles like CyberPunk that show what happens when an unfinished game is pushed out too early.

While these titles were the better-known tragedies of 2020, every developer is facing pressure from the instantly remote operations. But will this cause any other titles to be delayed?

That is a question that is unanswered right now but with a few games like The Medium (which has already been delayed once), EverWild likely is a 2022 title, and many others, they have been facing the same remote-development challenges but to what effect?

This question will be answered in 2021 but as of right now, we do not know the impact.

Cloud Gaming Expansion

Microsoft has done a good job of making xCloud a feature and not a product. It’s a bundled service with GamePass Ultimate that enhances the gaming experience but does not define it.

In early 2021, we will see the service finally land on iOS and the browser which will bring it to par with Stadia. But how will Microsoft try to expand the service after that point?

It’s obvious that they can bring cloud gaming to new regions but it has been quiet about bringing cloud gaming to its own consoles. With storage being limited (or expensive to expand) on Series S and X, for non-multiplayer titles, Cloud Gaming makes a lot of sense even on consoles.

It also makes sense as a quick way to jump into Game Pass titles without the need to fully download the game. The applications of cloud gaming are far from being fully realized and hopefully, in 2021, we will see a more aggressive roll-out of scenarios where the service makes sense aside from using it on a mobile device.

GamePass Growth

But at the end of the day, it all comes down to GamePass. Microsoft is pushing this service aggressively and there are high expectations for the ‘Netflix of gaming’.

How do we know this? Satya’s compensation is partially driven by the growth of Xbox Game Pass Subscribers, overall 5% of his compensation is tied directly to this metric. As a comparison, his compensation is also 5% driven by Surface review but Teams MAU is 20%.

That being said, the fact that Game Pass subscriber growth lands on the desk of the CEO shows the commitment to the product. And knowing that, look for an aggressive push to find new ways to attract gamers and content to the service.