Snapdragon X Copilot+ PC: Not So Fast (Premium)

The Windows community is understandably excited by Snapdragon X and Copilot+ PC. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This platform isn't mature or full-featured enough to completely replace Intel and its x86/x64 processor architecture. And while the microprocessor giant has been struggling lately, it's still dominant in PCs and has already weathered the potent threat it's faced with Apple Silicon-based Macs. Arm may be the future of the PC, but that's only one possible outcome. Indeed, it's far more likely that Intel will simply sweep Arm aside as it improves x86/x64 yet again, this time to be more efficient.

The benefits of Arm­­­ are undeniable in general. But the specifics make this architectural shift problematic with Windows. Today, as ever, Windows 11 on Arm is a subset of Windows 11 (x64). Most Windows apps run in emulation, and no x86/x64 Windows drivers work in this new system. This will not change.

I've written this before, but it's an important point: When Apple shifted from Intel to Apple Silicon (Arm), it left the old architecture (Intel) behind. It did this previously with its Power PC too Intel shift, and the Rosetta-based emulation layer that enabled the shift was eventually retired. But that's not what Microsoft is doing. It's maintaining two forks of the Windows 11 code base, one for x64 (as I'll now call it) and one for Arm64. Both are identical for the purposes of this discussion—there are obviously low-level differences—and both will be identically supported, wit­­­h the same features and functionality, going forward … forever. Well, for the foreseeable future. Nothing is permanent.

We can debate the complexity of this side-by-side development, but it doesn't matter: This is just a market reality. Today, all Windows PCs out in the world are running x64 from a statistical perspective. Tomorrow, this December, a year from now, that will almost certainly be true, too: Even if Snapdragon X Copilot+ PCs are somehow the sales sensation of the year, even the giddiest forecast puts their market share in the very low single digits. Windows 11 on Arm isn't becoming the mainstream Windows version anytime soon, if ever.

To understand the challenge, let's first look at Apple Silicon. Many likely believe that the M-series Macs are the inspiration for this shift to Arm, but if you've been around long enough, you know that's not the case: Microsoft shipped its first Arm-based version of Windows in 2012, with Windows RT. It restarted these efforts with Qualcomm and Windows 10 on Arm in 2017, and the two have spent the past several years improving the hardware and software behind the platform.

It's not even fair to describe Apple Silicon as a wake-up moment for Microsoft: It had been calling on its silicon partners—Intel, especially, but also AMD—to rethink their approach to microprocessors for years and embrace the instant-on, reliable, and efficient mobile paradigm that had subsumed personal computing starting with the...