Apple “Two Years Behind” on AI

A new report from Mark Gurman confirms the widespread belief that Apple is well behind its rivals in AI. He also continues to hammer on how lackluster the first round of AI-based Apple Intelligence features will be when they finally launch later this month. But Apple has important advantages over his rivals, he adds, and these will eventually lead to the firm being “a top-tier AI company.”

Gurman previously reported that Apple would deliver its first Apple Intelligence features as part of iOS 18.1 (and iPadOS 18.1 and macOS Sequoia 15.1) on October 28, about one week from now. He’s been curiously critical of these features, and that continues in his most recent Power On newsletter, in which he describes them as “underwhelming” and “lacking the wow factor.” The signature feature in iOS 18.1, he says, will be notification summaries, but even that will only be helpful if it’s accurate.

“Some internal studies at Apple … found that OpenAI’s ChatGPT was 25 percent more accurate than Apple’s Siri, and able to answer 30 percent more questions,” he writes. “In fact, some at Apple believe that its generative AI technology — at least, so far — is more than two years behind the industry leaders.”

That won’t last, however. Gurman notes that Apple has a history of coming from behind and being successful–he cites Apple Maps as an example–and that the company will “develop, hire, or acquire” its way to the top.

More important, Apple has key advantages over its AI competitors. In addition to its nearly infinite cash reserves, Apple can easily roll out new features to its billions-strong installed base, and it can quickly revamp its hardware lineup and release new models that are capable of running the new software. When Apple announced Apple Intelligence in June, it was only compatible with Apple Silicon-based Macs, two iPhone models, and a few iPads. Today, just four months later, Apple Intelligence works with most iPads and the newest four iPhone models too.

More compatible devices are on the way. Apple will announce new M4-based Macs soon, and a new iPhone SE in early 2025. Apple Watch can get AI-based notification summaries from a paired iPhone, Apple Intelligence is coming to Vision Pro, and Apple is building a new wave of home devices based on AI capabilities. By 2026, “nearly every Apple device with a screen will run it.”

Google and Samsung, he says, have more fragmented ecosystems with less integrated hardware, software, and services. They will be “hard-pressed to roll out new features and upgrades at the same speed” as Apple.

But Gurman is also critical of AI in general, and he openly wonders whether customers even care about AI, noting that camera advancements are a “bigger draw” for iPhone buyers. “Apple’s AI glory is still years away,” he claims. “If the new iPhone is a hit this year, it will probably be because of everything but AI.”