Ask Paul: April 24 ⭐️

Happy Friday! It's an interesting week of existential crisises here in the Microsoft community. But we've been here before, so let's settle in and see what the future holds.
⛵️ That ship sailed and then it burned down as it went over the horizon
NickTech asks:

Theoretical question: do you think Microsoft could have a successful mobile devices strategy if they tried making Android-based phones, but with their own apps and features baked in to customize it, like a Windows 10 Mobile style launcher and advanced integration with M365 and OneDrive?

I don't see a version of that ever making sense anymore, and I'm not sure it would have ever made sense. The world has settled on the two mobile platforms as they are, and though one (Android) is sort of open, it's still controlled by one of Microsoft's biggest competitors. Microsoft's enterprise customers know and understand both mobile platforms from a device management perspective, and there's no real value-add for it to deliver to those customers that would make them consider dropping their existing devices/strategies.

And this isn't a big enough opportunity for Microsoft to even try; we used to talk about "billion dollar businesses" and how Microsoft would ignore anything smaller than that, but that was many years ago. Today, the bar is much higher, Microsoft as an organization is focused elsewhere (AI, cloud), and this just doesn't fit in.

There was a point several years ago when I thought we'd see a Surface Pro equivalent running Android, a Microsoft 365 device, so to speak. But Surface was always a failure and there was likely little stomach to take that risk. It was never going to work, really. But what if it did, and all Microsoft did was shift part of the customer base from Windows to Android, which is owned by a rival? We lived through a silly era where some claimed that an (Intel-based) MacBook was somehow the best PC for running Windows, now imagine that happening with a Surface PC being the best way to run Android.

It makes sense for Microsoft to put its software and services on other mobile platforms, even when it made its own, it needs to meet its customers where they are. It makes sense for Microsoft to continue improving Windows given its importance to its biggest customers. But it doesn't make sense for Microsoft to make its own hardware anywhere. That's true for PCs, Surface is a disaster. It's true for Xbox, ditto (with hardware). And it would be true on mobile. There's just no call for it, no real interest and, for Microsoft, no opportunity for growth.

The open question here is whether Microsoft might have ever established its own mobile platform as a third option or, even more out there, assumed the role that Android now has in this market. It's impossible to know, of course, but I feel like either or both were possible. But that was many years ago, and there are all kinds of variables, and the Microsoft of whatever era couldn't have and wouldn't have ever...