Ask Paul: November 11 (Premium)

Happy Friday! I’m back in Pennsylvania for just a few days, so here’s one last Ask Paul from the apartment in Macungie, as we’re moving when I get back from my next trip, to Seattle next week for Microsoft Ignite.

Social media

christianwilson asks:

I know you continue to use X (and have business reasons for needing to do so) and I think you’ve been using Mastodon, but have you tried Bluesky?

No. I had an invite, but I already have trouble keeping track of all the social media accounts I have to manage. I suspect the obvious move for me (from Twitter/X) will be to Threads. And I would have started this transition already if Meta would just implement an API so that the service I use to auto-post to social media (dlvr.it) could push our posts there too. When that happens—I guess it’s on the way—I will look at posting more there and see what happens.

For now, I’m on still on Twitter/X primarily, and of course, we have a Thurrott.com account as well. I’m on Mastodon personally. I’m on Facebook personally, and there’s a Thurrott.com account there too. I’m on Instagram personally. And we have two YouTube channels, one for Thurrott.com and one for Eternal Spring. It’s a lot to manage and some of these services (Facebook, cough) make it particularly hard to manage multiple accounts.

But the issue, as always, is scale. I have over 125,000 followers on Twitter, but only 3,500 on Mastodon and less than 2,000 on Threads (though I have never once posted there).

Nothing will replace what Twitter was. I don’t think we can expect that. The microblogging concept can still be beneficial though and I’m just curious if you’ve been trying other platforms.

You’re right about Twitter: Nothing will ever replace it. But … perhaps multiple services can fill the gap in time. We’re going to find out, as I don’t see anything ever improving at Twitter, and it’s only a matter of time before I’m forced to move on.

Crazy, or crazy like a fox?

spacecamel asks:

With the “enshittification” that Microsoft is doing with Onedrive and other things like ads in Windows, how much more can Microsoft do before it starts to hurt their usage share? 

I think about little else these days. This problem started in Windows 8 with the first ads and has exponentially multiple across Windows 10 and 11, with more and more ads, bundled crapware (in the wake of Microsoft killing its Signature PC program), forced telemetry and tracking, antagonistic, forced app and services usage (Microsoft Edge, OneDrive), and other bad behavior. It’s hard to look at this escalation over the years and not think that it’s purposeful, that Microsoft, for some crazy reason, is literally trying to drive users away.

That said, enshittification actually does explain this behavior, and that explanation makes more sense than Microsoft wanting to drive customers away. As I wrote back in March, it’s impossible to not see enshittification everywhere in personal technology once you’re made aware of it. But it’s particularly acute for me—and, I suspect, for many of you—in the Microsoft space, in part because the PC platform has evolved to focus mostly on productivity, and there is no place for annoyances and blockers when you’re trying to get work done. What Windows should be and what it is are two very different things, growing ever further apart.

To me, enshittification is when a company—Microsoft, in this case—changes a platform—Windows—in ways that are negative for its customers but are beneficial enough to itself that the issues this behavior causes are outweighed by those benefits. And you can look at any negative product change in Windows and see it through that lens. Why does Microsoft force users to use Microsoft Edge when they click on a story in Widgets or an item in Search highlights? Because Microsoft Edge is directly linked to Microsoft’s online services, most specifically the web-based ads business it’s trying to grow, and it can track user behavior and sell that information to advertisers. Microsoft ignores the user’s wishes because it benefits from doing so.

Same thing with OneDrive: This is part of a broader strategy to get the user base on Microsoft accounts (MSAs), which does benefit users—making it more of a win-win relationship, generally speaking—but also enables some bad behavior from Microsoft, like the ad-funded tracking. And by pushing users into using Folder Backup—a feature most believe is “for the best” for most people—what it’s really doing is fueling its Copilot backend with personal data, a key strategy for the company today given its AI push and the enormous associated costs. Microsoft will shove AI down our throats, and will force us to use OneDrive more and more (and the new Outlook), specifically to make more money from each person on Windows. Yes, there are benefits to all this to users. But it’s increasingly one-sided and, more to the point, mandatory.

From our perspective, this can also just be viewed as the ongoing elimination of choice. And while some of the decisions Microsoft makes are arguably “for the best,” or whatever, that’s sort of beside the point. As an intelligent, free-thinking person, I may have my own ideas about how I use this PC. I don’t understand a world in which Microsoft is allowed to ignore my explicit configuration changes. And it’s right to wonder where it ends. What features/options will be removed this coming year? Next year? It’s not like the plan to scale this back.

And on that I have no answers, just worries.

Do you think we will see a day when their business customers start looking in other directions?  With the amount of business apps that are Webapps, I think the line gets shorter all of the time.  However, Microsoft does not seem to realize this and seems to be trying to squeeze every cent from Windows.

The business case is interesting because it’s so different from consumers: Businesses can push back in ways that consumers cannot, and they are offered incredible levels of control over many things that consumers are not. But Microsoft still pushes this customer base in ways that I think are overly aggressive, and I think it can get away with this behavior because larger businesses, especially, are so entrenched in the ecosystem. That, and the fact that there are literally no single-source replacements for, or alternatives to, that ecosystem makes switching difficult or impossible. So we play this game. How far can Microsoft push it? We’re finding out as we speak.

The thing that bothers me here is that there’s an equitable solution that would benefit Microsoft and its individual users: Just let us pay to remove the crap. And I think the real reason it doesn’t offer such a thing, either as part of a Microsoft 365 or separate subscription, is that it’s not clear how much such a thing is worth to them on a per-user basis. Today, for example, all the terrible behavior in Windows 11 probably doesn’t amount to much in terms of per-user revenue per year. But the hope is that this can change, that this behavior will amplify its per-user revenues. And if that can happen, the price of a subscription alternative might become prohibitively expensive. Perhaps it’s better to just not offer that and see how it goes.  It’s just a theory. But I would pay to end this crap right now, semi-happily.

Related to this, AnOldAmigaUser asks:

Adding to the “enshitification” questions… Since the changes to OneDrive and Outlook are all being driven by a need for data on individuals for Copilot, is there any indication that this data is going to be aggregated, or will the “graph” apply to a single MSA?

I’m not sure, but I’ve wondered about this as well. If you think about a Microsoft Graph for consumers, for lack of a better term, it’s not hard to imagine which data would populate it—OneDrive and Outlook, but also OneNote, Loop, chats in the Teams no one uses, your web history, etc.—and that it could form the basis of a personal profile or whatever. But what you’re referring to, basically, is a “family”-based organization, and that could make sense. And that’s the extent of it: Microsoft won’t/can’t aggregate personal data across multiple unrelated accounts.

Any idea how they are intending to monetize this? Enterprise customers will be paying, but that is not going to fly with consumers. Will the data be used for even more ads?

There will be ads, yes. (There already are.) And I suspect a Microsoft 365 subscription component, whether that means higher prices for existing subs or a new, more expensive SKU or set of SKUs. We’ll see.

Will I stay or will I go?

AnOldAmigaUser also asks:

Is there some threshold you can see that would make you switch from Windows?

Yeah, but it’s not based only on Microsoft’s behavior, it’s also related to the competition—the Mac, Linux, and ChromeOS—and how or whether they also improve enough to be more compelling to me. This is like any other decision, a matrix of things, not just one thing, and it would require a lot of things to happen on both sides of the equation.

But here’s a simple and recent example of why this kind of shift is unlikely anytime soon: If OneDrive becomes so enshittified that I feel I can no longer use it, I don’t need to leave Windows, I just need to leave OneDrive. And I have already established that Google Drive works great on Windows. And in this scenario, I still very much prefer using Windows.

There’s something a bit less obvious that I also like about this kind of shift: It’s cross-platform. If I did want to move off Windows, specifically to the Mac or ChromeOS, this new solution works equally well there too. (OneDrive also works fine on the Mac.) I would need to use a third-party solution on Linux, of course, and that would require some research and, assuming it’s not identical functionally, a workflow change, which makes the bar higher for transitioning to that system.

But whatever. I prefer to use things that are a) best for my needs, and b) work everywhere. Notion is like that. Visual Studio Code is like that. Google Drive is mostly like that. Etc.

Any plans to increase coverage of alternatives?

How do I phrase this?

When I came to Thurrott.com, I made an explicit decision to expand my coverage from being Microsoft-specific to being personal computing generally, the idea there being that I had somewhat hedged myself in early on by being “the Windows guy” or whatever. Since then, however, I’ve taken a more nuanced stance on this, in part because I very much do prefer using and discussing Windows to anything else (PC, mobile, whatever), and in part, because I belatedly realized that being “the Windows guy” isn’t all that bad: You can only focus on so much.

But it’s not just Microsoft and so at some point I came up with the tagline that I still want on the top of the site: “Personal technology, with a focus on productivity, mostly Microsoft.” I think this is the right positioning, but more to the point, it’s where I’m really at. And I will always consider whatever it is that Microsoft offers while also leaving myself open to stray elsewhere if an alternative is superior. It just so happens that when it comes to productivity, it really is mostly Microsoft, still. Not 100 percent, but mostly.

Looking elsewhere isn’t about excluding Microsoft. It’s about doing what’s right for me and for others. It’s why I recommend Brave, for example. I wish Edge was what we were promised, but it’s not.

In any event, I will always look at alternatives, whether it’s at the OS level, apps, services, or whatever. But I don’t have some strategy to replace Windows or whatever. Just a curiosity to look and an openness to change if it’s warranted. So I’m not sure I can say that I will increase my coverage of alternatives per se. Just that I will keep looking. And we’ll see what happens.

Laptop reviews

thewarragulman asks:

My question is with your laptop reviews, I noticed there have been a lot of HP laptop reviews as of late, especially their business model EliteBooks which is all well and good as they’re great machines. However would you consider reviewing other business machines like Lenovo’s ThinkPad models and Dell’s Latitude models more often?

I’m somewhat constrained by what the PC makers offer me for review, but I feel like HP and Lenovo are pretty close in that regard. Lenovo contacted me last month about reviewing the latest ThinkPad T14s, for example, but I asked them to hold off until I was back from Mexico, and the PC just arrived today. So I should have a first impressions post up today or tomorrow, and I’m bringing this PC with me to Microsoft Ignite next week when I travel to Seattle.

I know you used to use and prefer ThinkPads many years ago but I’m wondering what changed?

Nothing has changed. I still very much prefer premium business-class PCs like those in the HP EliteBook and Lenovo ThinkPad families. I do prefer the HP typing experience overall to that of the ThinkPad, but that’s just one thing and it’s not like ThinkPads have “bad” keyboards or whatever.

I work for an organization that prefers to buy Lenovo hardware and would like to see more reviews of these as we’re due for a refresh of our fleet sometime next year, and as part of my role in the IT support team I’ll have the opportunity to provide some input on the purchasing decisions that will be made.

I mean, I can’t promise to focus more on ThinkPads, but I would never turn down a ThinkPad review opportunity. The next big push will likely be at CES in January, with press briefings in December.  (And I was actually invited to a Lenovo event already.)

Windows on Arm, today

SmudgerFace asks:

I am curious if you have ever looked at the Surface Pro computers with the Arm chips (SQ3 or other)? In my limited knowledge these are the only portable computers that support Windows 11 ARM?

No. Related to the question above, Surface stopped offering me meaningful review opportunities, most likely because Panos Panay is thin-skinned and doesn’t understand why constructive criticism is beneficial. But he’s gone now, so maybe that can change.

In the meantime, I did review the Lenovo ThinkPad X13s about a year ago, and that PC utilizes an Arm chipset that’s on par with that in the latest Arm-based Surface PC. Those two PCs are pretty much it in the mainstream/portable Arm space until the new chipset emerges next year.

Windows on Arm, tomorrow

ianceicys asks:

Apple’s M3 seems to deliver 15% better performance than their M2, given Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite announcement, do you think that this time next year (November 2024) hypothetically Apple releases M4 with another 15% performance improvement so will Qualcomm be able to deliver a next gen version of Snapdragon X Elite V2 by November 2024 AND be able to deliver a 25-35% performance improvement compared to the M3 (say 10% better than M4) to actually try to be competitive with the M4?

That’s awfully specific. 🙂 I think we need to see how well the X Elite performs in the real world, which won’t happen until mid-2024, before leaping forward to some second-generation chipset that may or may not happen that same year (though it’s reasonable to think it will at least be announced on the usual schedule). And I think we should kind of level-set on what’s really important here: Regardless of the relative performance of these chipsets, the Apple Silicon stuff is only on Macs and the Snapdragon chips will only be in PCs. So direct comparisons are both difficult and maybe pointless. Assuming they both work well in the real world.

The way I look at this is that what Qualcomm really needs is for its Arm chipsets to offer comparable performance to mainstream Intel/AMD CPUs while offering excellent battery life (roughly 50 to 100 percent more than comparable Intel/AMD chips). And that’s really it: This is about offering roughly what Apple Silicon offers, but on the PC.

And what about being price competitive, will Qualcomm be able to deliver their roadmap and beat Apple’s price points?

It almost doesn’t matter: No one can buy Apple Silicon chips and Apple will never reveal what it costs them. The price comparison here, which is really a value comparison—price/performance/battery—is with Intel and AMD. And in this regard, Qualcomm has never done well: It has consistently delivered underpowered chipsets at exorbitant prices. This has always been problematic, but it will be worse when and if other Arm competitors emerge. And that’s the real issue for late 2024/early 2025: Do AMD, NVIDIA, and maybe others announce their entry then?

A year from now in 2024 would you have rather purchased a M3 or waited till July 2024 to purchase a slower than M3 Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite? My money in 2024 is on Apple’s chips handily delivering the best Windows on Arm performance, what can Qualcomm/Nvidia possibly offer to be competitive with Apple’s annual performance gains on the M-series of chips (price?)?

I am very much looking forward to a competitive Arm chipset for PCs, but it’s not that simple. The first X Elite will target very specific form factors—Ultrabooks, basically, which typically run U-series Intel Core processors or the AMD equivalents—which makes sense, that’s the core of the premium portable market. But Apple Silicon targets the entire range of Mac products, from entry-level to ungodly expensive, and it does so with multiple chipset versions. So we’re not going to see Qualcomm being competitive across the board no matter what happens. It will only be competitive in very specific ways and vs. very specific use cases and device types. It has plans to expand. But we’ll see. Again, first things first.

So here’s what I’m looking for: The first X Elite-based PCs and whether they finally make for a viable alternative to Intel/AMD. And if so, whether this platform can expand—with Qualcomm and/or others—to address more parts of the market and, in doing so, finally offer what we really want, the Apple Silicon experience on the PC. It’s not going to happen overnight, but perhaps we are finally taking our first step in that direction.

The spectre of PC past

lightbody asks:

I just bought a used HP Spectre X360 13″ with an 8th gen i7 processor and 16gb ram.  Its hardly been used (battery charge cycle showing just 27 and 100%).  This laptop must be around 5 or 6 years old, yet seems incredibly fast to me and has a great screen.  It was £320.  Its my third Spectre, each of which I’ve loved. What am I missing out on compared to a new equivalent, which would have been at least £1000 more?

Well. On the one hand, I’m sure there’s nothing wrong with that PC. But on the other hand, there have been not just five generations of processor improvements since then, but also all the other improvements that accompanied them. Faster and more RAM and storage. More modern connectivity (Wi-Fi/Bluetooth) and expansion ports (Thunderbolt 4/USB4). Improved display technologies, with OLED panel options, higher resolution choices, and more productive aspect ratios (3:2 in the case of Spectre x360, 16:10 almost everywhere else). The hybrid work stuff—webcams and microphones, but also the software that HP provides—are much better now. There are new presence capabilities that wake up and sleep the PC when you come and go. And subjectively, the new Spectres are also prettier PCs with comfortable, curved edges and non-silver color choices.

It’s really all kinds of things. None of which negate the value of the PC you have. But may add up collectively to warrant an upgrade.

Slack vs. Teams

helix2301 asks:

Paul I read your article on Slack and as someone who deals with a lot different businesses I’m seeing less and less Slack.  Where do you think slack falls in the usage share of the space with other competitors?

Microsoft Teams crossed the 300 million monthly active user mark back in April, but we have to turn to third-party sources, which I’m not sure we can trust, for the usage of Slack and other competitors in this space. All that’s clear is that Slack usage is much lower than that of Teams, and I think my little pricing episode helps to explain why: There’s almost no such thing as a standalone Teams user, those users are really using some combination of Microsoft 365 subscription tiers, which deliver far more value than a standalone Slack subscription.

But Statistica projected 54.1 million monthly active users for Slack by the end of 2023. And it separately estimated that Discord had 154 million MAUs as of this past January. It’s harder to find anything on Google Meet/Chat specifically, but it’s safe to assume that some percentage of Workspace customers uses these services regularly because they’re paying for the service. The issue is that Google claims there are 3 billion Workspace users, a figure that includes non-paying Gmail account users and education customers, and over 500 million Google Chat users (same deal).

Do you think they would still be around if Salesforce didn’t buy them?

Yeah, actually. There’s always room for a single-purpose solution like this for small businesses that like to mix and match (Google Workspace, Slack, Notion, etc.). I suspect the Salesforce bid was to expand Slack more into larger businesses. But Microsoft 365 is like a wall.