Ask Paul: February 23 (Premium)

Happy Friday! Let’s kick off the weekend a little earlier with another set of great reader questions, all of them answered AI-free.

Lifecycle

spacecamel asks:

In your story about the expanded availability of 23H2, one thing that struck me was that each “update” had an end-of-life date of only about 18 months.

It’s actually 24 months. (See below.) And just to give credit where it’s due, Laurent wrote that article.

This made me wonder how much longer Windows 11 was going to be in the market since they could kill it and stop supporting this version of Windows pretty quickly. So my question is, how much longer do you think we will see Windows 11 around? I have a laptop that is seventh-gen, I7, so I have to “help” it get upgraded. It runs well, but I will upgrade when the next version of Windows enters the market. So how much time do you think I have since I think Microsoft will move on/away from Windows 11 pretty quickly?

I find it next to impossible to remember which versions of Windows are supported for whatever length of time. Part of the problem is that Microsoft has been screwing with the Windows version release schedule since Windows 10, when it switched away from the historical 10-year cycle with 5 years of mainstream support (during which new features could be added) and 5 years of extended support (during which we only got bug and security fixes). But the support lifecycle of each version—for consumers, anyway—never changed, for Windows 10. It’s always been 18 months. So this isn’t new.

And remember that Microsoft used to ship two Windows 10 Feature Updates (major version upgrades) every year. (And it was going to ship three at one point, but stepped back from that cliff.) With Windows 11, that calmed down to just one Feature Update per year, though of course Microsoft also ships new features monthly and bundles of new features quarterly (moments). But it also extended the support lifecycle for each version from 18 to 24 months.

If you look at the Windows 10 Home and Pro lifecycle on Microsoft Learn, you’ll see that each version up to 22H2, which is “the last version” and thus different, was supported for 18 months regardless of when it was released. 22H2 is supported until the Windows 10 end of life (EOL) on October 18, 2022, so that works out to about three years, double the normal lifecycle, but it’s the exception.

However, each Windows 11 Home and Pro version (21H2, 22H2, 23H2) is/was supported for 24 months. So Microsoft extended the support timeframe for consumers.

Of course, the support lifecycle is technically more complicated than that because businesses of different sizes, and on different volume licensing plans, get different lifecycles than consumers. But just looking at the people who matter here—us—it’s all good. You can use any given version of Windows 11 for two years, you will have to stay reasonably up-to-date during that time, and God only knows when support for Windows 11 will end broadly. With Windows 10, it was sort of a PC-by-PC thing (“Windows 10 is supported for the lifecycle of the device”) when that was the ongoing concern. It’s just as vague/unclear now with Windows 11. We don’t know what comes next, so there’s no way to know when this ends.

If you’re interested in this kind of thing and enjoy being confused, Microsoft calls this new support policy, which I see as a moving, liquid target, as the “modern” lifecycle, where the old 10/5/5-year plan is now called the “fixed” lifecycle. You can learn what there is to learn—don’t expect to come away satisfied—in Windows lifecycle FAQ and Overview of Windows as a service on Microsoft Learn.

To answer your questions, though, I suspect that we will be using something called Windows 11 for roughly 10 years. There was a moment in time there where it looked like we were going to move to a Windows 12, but I think the higher-ups realized the confusion that could cause and scaled back. (Having said that, Microsoft will announce Windows 12 today.)

But what you’re really asking about is this 7th Gen Intel Core-based PC. Today, you can install and use Windows 11 and bypass the hardware requirements. But will that change? We’ve seen news about Canary builds of Windows 11 no longer supporting the workarounds for non-supported PCs, and of course, this has led to understandable fears that the next Windows—Windows 11 24H2, we now know, not Windows 12—will block the upgrades that Windows 11 23H2 and older allowed. But here’s some good news: What we were seeing in Canary is not a change in policy, it’s just a bug. This same bug, which was introduced in Visual Studio 2022 version 17.9.1, has been causing issues with Microsoft Store apps as well.

Hi, the Visual C++ team has identified the problem as a regression in the vclibs framework package that the Photos app and other apps depend on. The problem affects computers with older hardware (that do not support SSE 4.2 instructions). Microsoft is currently working on validating a solution and it’s expected to roll out to affected customers soon.

There’s a bit more on Windows and hardware requirements below. But the key takeaways are that Microsoft could yank support for older hardware at any time, literally, but it hasn’t done so yet and the worries we had about 24H2 are unfounded. For now. Because anything could change at any time.

Privacy

lindhartsen asks:

As Microsoft ramps up the presence of Copilot in Windows, alongside their tendency to change settings in applications like OneDrive and Edge, what concerns do you think are fair for users to have about the privacy of the data on their computers?

It depends. If you’re signing in with a Microsoft account, storing your data in OneDrive, and using Microsoft Edge, you should pay attention to the company’s privacy policy to see when/if anything changes. For now, Microsoft should be held to the standards of its privacy policy, and any access to personal data should be on an opt-in basis. The issue, of course, is simple: Are you already opting in?

And I don’t know. I’m a bit nervous to even go down that rabbit hole, to be honest.

Based on our collective attitudes about privacy, I suspect that what’s going to happen is that most people will rush into the warm embrace of AI, damn the privacy implications, and will mindlessly click “OK” repeatedly to whatever EULA-style agreements these things will require, and hand away the keys to the kingdom. And that a small minority will resist and try to keep Copilot and AI out of their PCs and lives.

I will leave open the possibility that Microsoft will do this correctly. By correctly, I mean that “what happens within the confines of your Microsoft account stays in your Microsoft account” and will never be accessed to train Microsoft’s AI. The danger there is immense: If your personal data is sucked up into Copilot globally, it could hallucinate its way to other people. But if this is done right, you will have a machine-level SLM on each device whose data syncs like OneDrive does today between your devices, in a safe and private way. And is only for you. That kind of thing would be very useful.

Do you trust Microsoft to do the right thing? Google?

We’re going to find out. Personal data in the Microsoft space means many things: Your email, your schedule, your contacts/relationships, your documents, photos, and other files, your browsing history, your online activities, and so on. In the commercial space, Microsoft offers the Microsoft Graph to connect these and other data silos, and it gives organizations control over how that information is used. For consumers … there’s really nothing like that. But you know some version of it is coming. What that will look like—and whether Microsoft will give us the control we need over that data—is still an open question.

Let’s stick to OneDrive for now to keep it simple. We all have whatever files in there. Some are more sensitive or more personal than others. There’s a Private Vault for the truly secretive stuff. Whatever. It’s worth going back and looking at what Microsoft announced for its next-generation OneDrive last October and trying to extrapolate how a Copilot in OneDrive might work for consumers. Leaving aside the UX stuff and sticking to AI, there will be governance controls we may or may not get. Creation tools, which we will obviously get. New ways to search, organize, and extract information from your files, ditto. The ability to summarize a document is obvious. But how far will these tendrils extend into our data, and how much, if anything, will leak out to Microsoft?

It’s worth reading through the governance and future of OneDrive bits in that post. I’m not sure there are answers for consumers there. But maybe look for things you see as red flags. And there is a bit in there that is specific to consumers, too. Improved people and photo search with natural language. Not much else.

We live in interesting times. We need to be vigilant.

Hardware requirements

MichaelMDiv asks:

Do you think Microsoft will increase the hardware requirements for Windows 12? I am hoping to leapfrog Windows 11, but with push on AI, I could see them requiring more processing power for the next version of Windows.

I first speculated about that in January 2023 during an episode of Windows Weekly, and then I expanded on that discussion for This is Windows 12 (Premium). Long story short, I could then see a world in which you needed a PC with an NPU to install what we now know will be called Windows 11 version 24H2. But that’s a bit too radical given how few PCs have NPUs, or will have them by late 2024. And if the slow adoption of Windows 11 has proven anything, it’s that this kind of policy is contrary to Microsoft’s aims of spreading AI to as many PCs and people as quickly as possible. So no, there is no way that Windows 11 24H2 requires an NPU. And as noted above, the worries we had about this release blocking installation workarounds that have worked so far are likewise unfounded. So, no, I don’t see any version of this story where the hardware requirements for 24H2 are more restrictive than they already are.

Today, all the AI features in Windows 11 (except for Windows Studio Effects) run against the CPU and/or GPU in your PC, and I expect a similar experience in Windows 11 version 24H2, where features will start to use whatever combination of CPU, GPU, and NPU the PC has, and will offer better performance/efficiency on those PCs with better hardware. There could be some features that require an NPU, like Windows Studio Effects, and there will be many hybrid AI features that work better (or only work) with cloud connectivity.

There’s no doubt that the future of computing will involve some form of local and cloud AI that runs across a variety of hardware and delivers some spectrum of capabilities. But this isn’t really all that different from what we experience today with video games: Some require a high-end gaming PC to run effectively or at all, and what that really means is a high-end processor, a dedicated GPU, a lot of RAM, and high-speed storage. But many games run fine on lower-end PCs, and the Arc graphics in new Intel-based AI PCs expand that market nicely. AI will work the same way, I bet. And the tasks that require high-end workstations today will run pretty well on the Ultrabooks of tomorrow as hardware improves.

AI

ianceicys asks:

What AI tools and copilots are you playing with recently? Any super interesting ones that you want to look into? preplexity.ai is looking SUPER interesting.

While I am here in Mexico, I am focusing on only two AI tools, both productivity-focused: Copilot Pro and Gemini for Google Workspace. But when I get back to the more expansive and stable setups I have at home, I will start looking at local AI capabilities as well.

I use Copilot Pro daily, mostly for graphics, but I’ve also started comparing how Copilot Pro and Gemini can be used to create outlines for podcast notes, especially, recommendations for local places to visit, and the like. I have yet to use any AI for writing—nothing on Thurrott.com was ever started or “created” by AI, or augmented by AI, or whatever. Never say never, I guess, but I feel like my writing style is what it is, etc. I don’t see the need.

Baby steps

helix2301 asks:

Paul with xCloud we have a lot of handhelds being released now xcloud coming to Steam Deck and many others but NOT Nintendo lol. My question is one do you see these things being viable options for companies I just don’t see kids picking a Logitech Xcloud over a Nintendo Switch or PSP. The cloud-connected peace might not be an issue with hot spots and stuff but I just don’t see it personally.

As part of my Feeling Better About Xbox? (Premium) article, I noted that the definition of “Xbox” has changed under Phil Spencer from meaning a video game console to being an ecosystem. Just expanding Xbox to PCs is, in its own way, a big deal. But there are also subscription services, cross-play capabilities, cloud streaming, and, thanks to Microsoft’s studio acquisitions, games on other platforms, including other consoles. So Xbox isn’t what it used to be.

Xbox expanding to include cloud streaming on other consoles would require one of two things: The expansion of Game Pass subscriptions to those devices. Or a new Xbox Cloud Gaming standalone offering. Either is possible. Here’s what I wrote on that topic last week:

Game Pass will only be available on Xbox, which in Microsoft’s somewhat contorted terminology, could mean different things. Today, it’s the Xbox consoles and PCs. But the company noted that it will continue looking at how it can further its vision of bringing more games to more players, and it’s difficult to believe there aren’t plans for an Xbox Game Pass Mobile or whatever. That will then be considered “Xbox.” That said, no one was explicit about that.

This makes some Xbox fans queasy for some reason, but I very much expect Xbox to expand to include other consoles and mobile. However it happens.

Voice assistants vs. AI

helix2301 asks:

The question I get asked a lot is where AI fits in with things like the current Alex and Hey Google? Early voice assistants vs AI where is the line and when do we cross it with these things?

They merge.

When the brand is strong, like Alexa, you stick with it and just add AI to it. When it’s not, like Google Assistant, you rebrand. And that’s what just happened on my Android phones: Gemini asked me to replace Google Assistant. What’s really happening there, of course, is that it’s still Google Assistant. But it has a new name and, increasingly, more powerful new features.

When the brand is dead, like Cortana, you move on. And that’s why we see Copilot apps on mobile in addition to the features in Windows, Microsoft 365, and so on, and on the web. It’s a new offering. Even though we may in the end interact with it much as we did with Cortana.

An eInk tablet?

helix2301 asks:

My last thing really is more of a recommendation. My wife and I both have dated Kindles I really like eInk is there something like Kindle that’s better besides an iPad again were are looking to read.

This is a sore spot for me.

I really like E ink as well. And I am heavily invested in the Kindle ecosystem: My wife and I own over 1600 books between Kindle and Audible, and I used to subscribe to many periodicals through the Kindle ecosystem before that went south. But Kindle e-readers can’t display some of that content—things like graphic novels, especially, but also larger format titles that might have been coffee table-type books back in the day—while other content, like programming books, don’t display correctly because of line width/overrun issues.

What I would like for reading is a color Kindle e-reader, something in iPad Mini-sized, a bit bigger than mainstream Kindles, that can actually display all of the content I have in Kindle. If that thing could also display some apps—Pocket, for example, or maybe Medium or whatever—all the better. And the answer, I guess, is an Android tablet with Google Play support an E ink screen. I’m not aware of any that are any good. But if Amazon would just make a Kindle like this, I’d never look back.

Until then, I’ll stick with an iPad. At least everything works.

Company politics

madthinus asks:

We saw an accidental Windows 12 look at last year’s Build I believe. Do you think that Panos’s vision for Windows 12 have been rebooted internally after his exit and that is why we are getting a Windows 11 24H2, or is a case of we don’t want to hinder the deployment of Co-Pilot by adding a new Windows version into the mix which people are generally slow to adopt.

I have my theories about Panos, but until I learn what really happened, they’re just theories.

I don’t think he personally had a vision for anything, let alone Windows 12. I don’t think he even cared that much about Windows, to be honest, and the surface-level changes that Microsoft implemented there, and in such a half-assed fashion, speak nicely to the delta between talking about fit and finish, refinement, and quality and actually doing it. He was a charlatan. I don’t know why anyone was ever snowed under by this guy. He was a phony.

Two things about 24H2. The AI stuff is moving so fast, we’re already at the point where plans are changing anyway, and will keep changing, so whatever is happening now would have happened with or without Panos. And 24H2 is just a name. This thing very much was Windows 12 for a time. And then it was renamed for all the right reasons. It’s no more or less profound than that. It will be the same level of upgrade it was always going to be regardless of its name.

The issue here for Windows is whether Microsoft can come through on the orchestration vision I discussed in Windows 11 is About to Get Its AI Moment (Premium). Past attempts to change the Windows UX have failed greatly, all the way back to the document-centric UI in Windows 95 (which was otherwise quite successful). Getting users to move past apps, adopt Copilot as the new Start, and completely change the way they do things will require slow evolution and a couple of killer apps (I guess we can’t call them that)—killer workflows, I guess.

It will happen. I’m just not sure if we can handle it as users. We still play whack-a-mole with grids of apps on mobile, after all. Changing how people use Windows will be hard.

Eclipsed

Jogy asks:

Are you planning to observe the total solar eclipse from either USA or Mexico?

Our friends from Amsterdam will be in Mexico for that and asked if we could meet up at that time there. But it’s not going to work out schedule-wise, it looks like. So probably not.

Microsoft 365 woes

harmjr asks:

Microsoft 365 Family woes. So Paul any way I could have solved this better without wasting $6?

The full story is in the original forum post. Ugh.

I mean, you’re talking to someone who spent almost two months trying to fix a somewhat similar issue with Google Workspace, failed, and then had to scramble to move everything to a personal Gmail account after paying $100 for a Google One subscription. So from what I can see, you’re already ahead.

I can’t explain what happened to you, no one can. But as you noted at the end of your story, going forward with Microsoft 365 by stocking up on licenses is the way to go: I am currently paid up on Microsoft 365 Family through May 2026, but I also have codes for two more years, so that’s through 2028. You can find them on sale sometimes, but I’m lucky enough to have friends from Microsoft who let me into their “friends and family” circles, so I can get it at a nice discount.

Anyway, looking at your troubles, I think it will work out, but this speaks to the need to sync your data—or at least your most important data—to some PC(s) in the short term if possible just in case the coming switch back to Microsoft 365 runs into any more issues. Good luck. I have definitely felt this pain.