IDC Predicts PC Market to Grow Over 4 Percent in 2025 to 274 Million Units

IDC has increased its prediction for PC unit sales growth by 4.1 percent in 2025 despite the uncertainty around U.S. tariffs.

“The 90-day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90-day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US,” IDC research vice president Jean Philippe Bouchard says. “However, expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the US, characterized by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily.”

The firm now expects PC sales to improve by 4.1 percent this year, to 274 million units. Beyond this year, it expects a slight contraction in 2026 following the Windows 11 migration of 2025.

PC sales hit 254 million units in 2024, using data consolidated between IDC and Gartner, a gain of just 1.3 percent year-over-year (YOY); IDC’s number was 262.7 million units, with 1 percent growth. At that time, IDC noted that the PC industry faced “several tailwinds and headwinds” in 2024, making for a challenging outlook and difficult demand planning.

“The overall macroeconomic concerns seem to be overshadowing some of the progress and excitement around AI PCs,” IDC group vice president Ryan Reith said at the time. “However, we maintain the view that the impact that on-device AI will have on the industry will be positive, even if the inflection point is delayed. When the industry is trying to push new AI PCs that come with higher cost at a time when use cases are still being vetted and budgets are tight, that is clearly going to be a challenge. But on-device AI for PCs is inevitable, therefore, right now it is about suppliers trying to be patient as their customers are dealing with headwinds unrelated to these technology advancements.”