What if mobile doesn’t go away?


This is related to another excellent post on the forums called “what if the new thing relies on the old thing?”

Heres the pitch- we constantly hear that Microsoft is out of mobile and waiting for the next wave and a lot of the tech media seems to agree that this is the correct thing to do, but what if mobile is here to stay for the next 20 years in one form or another? In this scenario AR or whatever doesn’t replace mobile and PC’s amongst consumer and to a lesser extent enterprise continue to decline. iOS and android continue to develop and eat into the roles that windows PCs currently occupy today?

By by this point generations of new workers will be accustom to android and iOS so Microsoft is out of the OS game..

Ok so they’ll just be a cloud services and productivity company, fine only there’s a couple of issues with that. First they are second in cloud to amazon a company which seems to the aggressiveness of the old (and successful Microsoft). Are microsoft really going to surplant them, really? The other problem is google who almost certainly won cloud, why? Because it’s clear as day that cloud will be heavily linked to ai, which for its development requires both massive data and user engagement. From my point of view googles application of ai/ machine learning is far more impressive and it’s applications more useful. Likewise how long does Microsoft really think that office 365 will go unchallenged by google apps for work and whatever amazon is cooking up? You know they’ll just undercut Microsoft, why because their revenues don’t rely on it anyway – but microsofts do and both of these companies won’t hesitate to go for the jugular.

Once you consider this is Microsofts retrenchment to enterprise and aim to be dominate in cloud such a safe bet?

My point is if Microsoft wants to stay relevant it needs to aim to be number one, google and amazon certainly are. It has billions in the bank and should act aggressively to ensure its future that means having a relevant mobile OS whatever that takes. If they need to give phones away they need to do it, if they need to pay or buy developers they should do it, they are on the tipping point it’s either this or watch it all fall away.

why be bothered by all this though? Well the existence of microsoft and specifically their old fashioned business model (I.e you pay for a service and you get it without ads etc and without your data being passed on) keeps google and amazon in check. It forces them to limit their ads, to respect privacy if the user wishes it. Without Microsoft there is no other option than googles model and once that happens say hello to more and more ads and less and less privacy..

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