Phablets are the Future of Smartphones (Premium)

A new smartphone sales growth forecast three years suggests that screen sizes on these devices will continue to grow until the phablet form factor is the norm. This is inevitable, I think, and it matches my expectations.

As you may know, I often discuss what I call the smartphone "sweet spot," which is a rough measure of the ideal display size. For a few years, it seemed like the 5-inch display size was the sweet spot for most. But with the emergence of mainstream phablets and years of experience with larger devices, I've been revising that measure over time.

Naturally, we all have different preferences, but it's possible to look at actual sales data and see how handsets with larger screens have become more and more popular over time. And IDC has extrapolated this data to show what they expect to see over the next few years.

And it goes like this: Large screen devices---those with 5-inch or larger displays---were already the majority of smartphones sold in 2016, and sales of such devices have risen sharply over the years. IDC expects that trend to continue.

Breaking down the large screen devices into two categories---let's call them phones (5-5.5-inches) and phablets (5.5-6-inches)---we see another interesting trend: Sales of these devices will be roughly identical by 2020, according to IDC. And sales of phablets will eventually surpass those of other large screen smartphones, and will become the best-selling category of this device type overall.

IDC also notes that screen size growth will basically come to standstill at the 6-inch size; sales of phones with larger screens never really grow all that much in their estimates. But there are two major factors to consider for the future.

First, with the Samsung Galaxy S8/S8+, the Essential PH-1, and other phones, we're seeing a move towards new "extra tall" screen aspect ratios (~19:10) that better cover the entire face of a device while allowing for a smaller overall device size. This move mirrors the "bezeless" display trend with PCs, where device makers are able to ship large displays but small devices. This trend will only accelerate, I think.

(Side-note: I think these new "extra tall" displays make tons of sense on phones/phablets because the resulting devices are thinner and easier to hold. But squatter, 3:2-type displays make more sense on PCs, especially 2-in-1s/convertibles, where productivity matters more than entertainment.)

Second, we need to consider Apple and the strange skewing effect it has on these numbers. As the best-selling smartphone, the iPhone has a weighty effect the market. But Apple, inexplicably, sells smaller devices than the rest of the industry. This means that the move to larger displays, and phablets especially, is probably even more pronounced than what we're seeing.

Today, Apple has three primary iPhone form factors: The iPhone SE, with its tiny, retro-style 4-inch display; the iPhone 7, with a small 4.7-inch display; and the iPhone ...

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