The Failure of Windows Phone and the Next Big Thing

Microsoft has artificially kept Windows phone on life support since its mid-2015 decision to wind down its smartphone ambitions. There are a lot of theories about why the software giant is doing this. But here's the real reason.

First, let me redirect you from the obvious answers, as any tech enthusiast topic like this one comes saddled with too many conspiracy theories to even count. And most people's opinions about why Windows phone failed in the first place, let alone why it's still here despite having failed, are either untrue or only a minor part of a wider story.

It's not because of HP or other partners. It's not because of the Universal Windows Platform (UWP) or its still-non-existent gotta-have-it apps. It's not for business customers, none of which were asking Microsoft to create a phone platform that could be managed like PCs. And it's certainly not for the few remaining fans of the platform. Sorry, guys.

No, Microsoft has kept Windows phone chugging along on life support for one simple reason.

It's so they don't miss out on The Next Big Thing.

When I spoke to Microsoft about its Windows phone failures in mid-2015, I was told many things, both on and off the record. But what it boiled down to was this: Yes, I was correct in my assertion that Windows phone had failed. And yet, Windows phone would be kept limping along regardless. Why would Microsoft do that, I asked?

In July 2015, the answer was this: Microsoft had institutionally failed to meet the iPhone threat and had, as a result, failed to gain any traction in what has proven to be the most popular personal computing era in history. This was problematic for this maker of platforms for a number of reasons. But the most obvious is that, by essentially missing a generation, Microsoft risked becoming obsolete on the client.

So, I was told, Microsoft would continue to at least maintain its mobile operations. It would wait out this generation and try to latch onto The Next Big Thing more quickly than it had with mobile. The expectation at the time was that this Next Big Thing would be hardware related. Perhaps wearables. Perhaps augmented/virtual reality. Perhaps the Internet of Things.

If that sounds awfully vague, you're right: It was. But over a year later, and thanks to inroads by Amazon, Apple, and Google, we now know what that Next Big Thing is. It's not the Internet of Things, and it's not wearables. (And it's certainly not HoloLens.) Though to be fair, these devices, like PCs, tablets, smartphones and various home and work appliances, will play a role.

The Next Big Thing is AI. Artificial Intelligence.

And you Microsoft fans in the audience are hopefully feeling a bit better right now. Because Microsoft is only one of a handful of firms that has any chance at all at being successful in this emerging field.

Of course, the others are Amazon, Apple, and Google, none of which are particularly interested in opening the door for the company th...

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