Windows Device Stats: Windows 10 Mobile and HP Elite x3 Both Stumble in October

Posted on October 21, 2016 by Paul Thurrott in Windows 10, Windows Phones with 105 Comments

Windows Device Stats: Windows 10 Mobile and HP Elite x3 Both Stumble in October

More bad news for Windows phone fans: According to the latest usage stats, Windows 10 Mobile growth has ended. And that shiny new HP Elite x3? It is off to a terrible, terrible start.

As always, this month’s look at Windows Device usage comes from AdDuplex, which bills itself as the largest cross-promotion network for Windows phone and Windows apps. AdDuplex empowers developers and publishers to promote their apps for free by helping each other. And each month it provides a glimpse at which Windows phone devices people are actually using. And this month, the data includes PCs too.

Here’s what we learned this month. I’ll get the bad news out of the way first, since it’s basically the only news.

Windows 10 Mobile growth is over. Last month, AdDuplex predicted that growth in Windows 10 Mobile usage was about to hit a wall, and this month they were proven right: As a percentage of all Windows phone OSes in use, Windows 10 Mobile has landed at 13.7 percent, barely changed from last month. This means that the base of devices that can be upgraded has been and that no one is buying new Windows 10 Mobile devices. That’s all she wrote, folks.

The HP Elite x3 has already failed. I declined to review the well-made but pointless HP Elite x3 for a good reason: No one should be shackled by the Windows phone ecosystem at this point and I’m not going to waste your time—and worse, your money—pretending otherwise. But this thing is failing on its own: The HP Elite x3 lands at number 36 on the usage chart in its debut.

The Elite x3: It’s worse than you think. But Paul, you’re saying. It’s too early to nail the coffin lid shut on the HP Elite x3. No. It’s isn’t: I reached out to AdDuplex for some more data and was told this: In the first month in the overall phone chart in late 2015, the Lumia 950 arrived #38, and the Lumia 950 XL was at #41. (And the 950 was being used “twice as much” as the XL.) Afer a similar period of availability, the Elite x3 came in at #96 on the overall chart this month, AdDuplex told me. That’s not just terrible. It’s non-existent.

HP is the number one PC maker … in usage. Since people always mix up usage share and market share, this can be a teaching moment. Lenovo has been the number one seller of PCs for a few years now, and that’s market share. But according to AdDuplex, HP, with 22 percent of the market, is by far the number one PC maker … in usage share. Lenovo is number two, tied with Dell at 11.6 percent. What this measures, of course, is PCs out in the world being used by people, not the number of PCs sold in any given quarter. So that explains how Lenovo can be number one by one measure (sales) and number two by another (usage).

Anniversary Update deployment speeds up. After months of a slow rollout, the Windows 10 Anniversary Update (for PCs) has finally sped up. This month, fully 77 percent of Windows 10 PCs in use are on this latest release (version 1607), more than double the figure last month. Looks like that November prediction was correct.

And there you go. Our world in a nutshell.


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