Windows Device Stats: Windows 10 Mobile and HP Elite x3 Both Stumble in October

Posted on October 21, 2016 by Paul Thurrott in Windows 10, Windows Phones with 105 Comments

Windows Device Stats: Windows 10 Mobile and HP Elite x3 Both Stumble in October

More bad news for Windows phone fans: According to the latest usage stats, Windows 10 Mobile growth has ended. And that shiny new HP Elite x3? It is off to a terrible, terrible start.

As always, this month’s look at Windows Device usage comes from AdDuplex, which bills itself as the largest cross-promotion network for Windows phone and Windows apps. AdDuplex empowers developers and publishers to promote their apps for free by helping each other. And each month it provides a glimpse at which Windows phone devices people are actually using. And this month, the data includes PCs too.

Here’s what we learned this month. I’ll get the bad news out of the way first, since it’s basically the only news.

Windows 10 Mobile growth is over. Last month, AdDuplex predicted that growth in Windows 10 Mobile usage was about to hit a wall, and this month they were proven right: As a percentage of all Windows phone OSes in use, Windows 10 Mobile has landed at 13.7 percent, barely changed from last month. This means that the base of devices that can be upgraded has been and that no one is buying new Windows 10 Mobile devices. That’s all she wrote, folks.

The HP Elite x3 has already failed. I declined to review the well-made but pointless HP Elite x3 for a good reason: No one should be shackled by the Windows phone ecosystem at this point and I’m not going to waste your time—and worse, your money—pretending otherwise. But this thing is failing on its own: The HP Elite x3 lands at number 36 on the usage chart in its debut.

The Elite x3: It’s worse than you think. But Paul, you’re saying. It’s too early to nail the coffin lid shut on the HP Elite x3. No. It’s isn’t: I reached out to AdDuplex for some more data and was told this: In the first month in the overall phone chart in late 2015, the Lumia 950 arrived #38, and the Lumia 950 XL was at #41. (And the 950 was being used “twice as much” as the XL.) Afer a similar period of availability, the Elite x3 came in at #96 on the overall chart this month, AdDuplex told me. That’s not just terrible. It’s non-existent.

HP is the number one PC maker … in usage. Since people always mix up usage share and market share, this can be a teaching moment. Lenovo has been the number one seller of PCs for a few years now, and that’s market share. But according to AdDuplex, HP, with 22 percent of the market, is by far the number one PC maker … in usage share. Lenovo is number two, tied with Dell at 11.6 percent. What this measures, of course, is PCs out in the world being used by people, not the number of PCs sold in any given quarter. So that explains how Lenovo can be number one by one measure (sales) and number two by another (usage).

Anniversary Update deployment speeds up. After months of a slow rollout, the Windows 10 Anniversary Update (for PCs) has finally sped up. This month, fully 77 percent of Windows 10 PCs in use are on this latest release (version 1607), more than double the figure last month. Looks like that November prediction was correct.

And there you go. Our world in a nutshell.


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Comments (105)

105 responses to “Windows Device Stats: Windows 10 Mobile and HP Elite x3 Both Stumble in October”

  1. 591

    Paul, I assume you know the phrase "giveem' what they paid for"?  There is no problem with posting a review of the x3 filled with opinions about why no one should buy it.  But as the banner says this is a Tech Enthusiasts site and one that was born in Windows.  Your customers want to read about advances in Windows Phone even if the market is failing.  HP has made interesting investments in the platform that are worth exploring.  A hands-on review of Workspace especially.  And I agree with mmcpher.  x3 has had little shipments, availability or promotion compared to the release of the 950/xl.  It's not even in my local Microsoft store yet.  When they have made the same amount of inventory available, then tell us how it sold.  I'm not expecting much good news.  But we don't have to work this hard to make what is already bad look worse.  It just makes no sense to me to review 2 versions of the iPhone 7 and not give any time to an interesting Windows Phone release.  Especially as you sell subscriptions for permium content.

    • 1377

      In reply to dhallman:

      If HP loses its shirt, how useful would Elite x3 reviews be?

      Anyway, as every Windows fan should know, if you want nearly unvarying positive press about Windows Mobile, stick to Windows Central.

    • 2

      In reply to dhallman:

      The 950/XL was widely criticized for its lack of availability and advertising at launch. HP is spending big bucks promoting the x3. These things are absolutely comparable. This isn't wish-fulfilment, it's just reality. 

      • 4841

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        No, it isn't. As Daniel Rubino correctly pointed out in his Twitter account, the Elite x3 was never going to have a wide adoption - heck, any adoption - by companies weeks after launch, no company does this to ANY device, this is a process that can take from 6 to 9 months as ITs test the new devices, approve them for deployment and prepare them to work seamlessly with their infrastructures. The market share the Elite x3 has currently has is made of die hard fans, only after this trial period for companies is over - because, well, this IS an enterprise device - can we correctly measure its success, or lack thereof.

        • 4636

          In reply to Demileto:

          Completely agree. Work for large company and still waiting on lap dock to get device. This will take a year to decide before any significant purchases

          Paul does not understand the enterprise market based on his comments

      • 591

        Well, you may have a point on the marketing comparison.  Though I held a dummy 950/xl prior to availability at the Microsoft store (for a short time) and found one to purchase on release day at the same store (as stated xl sold less and was what I wanted so it was an easier task).  In comparison I have seen no x3 displays or even posters prior to launch and the phone is still not available in-store.  Maybe not all that scientific - but you can't expect sales to match where availbility is less.  As far as I am concerned, this phone has not made it to 'general release' yet.


  2. 2

    Maybe I can throw you guys a bone ... you know, in the interests of being reasonable.

    How about I do this: Review the HP Elite x3. But not as a phone. As a PC replacement for business. I've said before that it does make some sense in that market. 


  3. 125

    I am soooooo suprised to see these numbers. Let me refer to the Microsoft checklist

    Don't advertise Lumia Products - Check

    Don't develop any apps that take advantage of Windows Phone - Check

    Actively develop and promote apps  for other mobile platforms - Check

    Limit the Windows 10 Mobile upgrade to a small subset of phones - Check

    Announce that there are no new phones on the horizon - Check

    Don't use and of the cross development tools (particularly the one you just bought) - CHECK

    Announce that due to shrinking market share Microsoft will be suspending further Phone development efforts - check

    As G W Bush said - "Mission accomplished!"




  4. 120

    Man the premium comments are as bad as the regular comments, if not worse. :) 

    I'll add my two cents though... If HP is willing to provide a review unit, why not take it for a spin and review it? At least it could be a cautionary tale for your readership. By taking a review unit I don't think you're pledging allegiance to HP to review it favorably.

    I completely understand not wanting to pay out of pocket for one if that is what you'd have to do to review it. Might as well strap 8 $100 bills to a Galaxy Note and watch it burn to a crisp.

  5. 7039

    Paul's negativity on the entire ecosystem has been over the top for a while now. His site used to one of the 'go to' sites for news on the Windows ecosystem. I was actually wondering why they didn't have a review of the X3 listed, as it is the one and only major new phone running Windows this year, and now we know.

    Paul, if you feel that it isn't a good move to purchase the phone, put that in the review, but it's difficult to justify a Windows site ignoring such an important device for the ecosystem.

    If nothing else, it would have been interesting to see what progress you feel has been made by MS on their mobile operating system, whether or not your choose to use it. As an Ios fan, you could certainly have done some comparisons, etc., that may have had some value.

    I'm just about at the point where even listening to 'Windows Weekly' is a waste of time, as Paul has become just a negative person on the entire UWA direction.


    • 5553

      I switched to Daniel Rubino/Windowscentral
      He is a great reviewer.In rep
      He had a great podcast with the designer of the X3ly to prjman:


      • 5486

        In reply to Joe_Blo:

        God no. WindowsCentral is surely the biggest fanboy site after WinBeta. Paul likes Microsoft (well, he tries to like Microsoft), but some of their business decisions are just laughable, and they've shot themselves in the foot so many times, we've lost count.

        Seriously, while some may still like WM, and it still does what they need, there's no getting away from the fact that WM is dead. The life support monitor is barely blipping now, and people are limiting themselves in that ecosystem. The Enterprise won't save it, the consumer has given up. A 'Surface Phone' is utterly pointless now, and HP are finding out with their X3 that their is actually no 'premium' WM market. The 950 pretty much identified that a year ago.

        Rational debates about Microsoft's pro's and con's are worth reading. Fanboys just trying to justify their investments and not wanting to be seen to have screwed up with their purchase isn't worth anything.


        Paul's optimism for Windows Mobile has disappeared. Now he's just a realist.

    • 5530

      In reply to prjman:

      "it's difficult to justify a Windows site ignoring such an important device for the ecosystem"

      what ecosystem?


      You can call it negativity, but as a Windows Phone user that got burnt, I say it's just making sense; pragmatic and realistic.

      • 4841

        In reply to FalseAgent:

        The ecosystem doesn't come down to just Windows phones, it also involves desktop, tablet, Xbox, Hub and holographic, yet he lacks excitement over pretty much all of them, which makes me wonder why does he still bother with a "Windows Weekly".

      • 7039

        In reply to FalseAgent:

        I agree with the other comments. Marketshare wise, the X3, or any windows phone, aren't overly relevant. Long term, having a phone play for the ecosystem is important for MS, even if it's just an option for enterprise users or enthusiasts. For a Windows focused site to purposely not review the only new Windows phone of the year, from a major vendor, is ridiculous. And it looks like a pretty nice phone, based on other reviews I have seen.*

        Face it - all of the components of UWA are important for developers to get interested, whether its PC, Xbox, Phone, etc. A windows site should cover a major release.

        Note: Alcatel is apparently releasing a phone next week as well, which includes VR goggles and is Snapdragon 820 based. Also didn't learn about that here, and shouldn't, apparently, be looking for a review here.

    • 2175

      In reply to prjman:
      Windows phone is dying a slow and horrid death. I hate to admit this, because I love the windows phone OS. But the ecosystem just isn't there. I was one of those people who "didn't care about apps". But as more useful apps become available for my bank, sports apps which my sporting club use, and many others, their absence on windows phone is an annoyance
      Microsoft suck at marketing. That's the huge letdown of windows phone - it was never positioned properly or marketed right, in my opinion. It's too late now.


  6. 265

    "No one should be shackled by the Windows phone ecosystem at this point and I’m not going to waste your time—and worse, your money—pretending otherwise."

    Uh, I think by now we get your point.  So do us a favor and retire your self-appointed role as the Troll-in-Chief for your own audience.  You must know that the x3 hasn't been widely available for more than a few weeks.  I pre-ordered an x3 in August and after the distirubution isues (the x3 was sold out on the HP and Microsoft stores for much of the "release" period) and didn't get it until October.  Maybe there's some  efficacy in comparing the x3's launch to earlier devices', but if you're going to go there, we need a little more than 96 is lower than 41.  Are the comparative launches equivalent in terms of volume, availability, time of launch, competing alternatives?  How about the Surface at launch?  Microsoft got behind that effort, but it still took time to gain traction.  Given your statement that it's a waste of time and money, you don't have to do it, of course, but if you're going to go troll, at least put a little effort into it.  Or else delete the W10M from this site and speak no more of the departed.   Do us all a favor and don't falter in your resolve not to review the x3 as who really needs someone, to quote a Nobel Laureate, to say, "I'll stand over your grave, 'Till I'm sure that you're dead"  Again.  And again.  And again.  Good luck with your wider effort to ingratiate yoursef with Android and iOS users!   


    • 2

      In reply to mmcpher:

      No. I will not stop telling you the truth. Sorry.

      We have passed the point where someone can say something uneducated like, "well it works fine for me." No. It doesn't. You are artificially limiting your capabilities. Period. 

      It's not trolling, and that kind of language is just a cowardly way to try and discredit someone who is simply truth-telling. If you want to hurt yourself and make bad decisions, do so. But don't promote it, and don't pretend it makes sense to some broad audience. Windows phone is over. And that's true whether you admit it or not. 

      As to "we need a little more than 96 is lower than 41," you got it: I told you that the Lumia 950, at #38, was double the usage of #41. Extrapolate that to #96. 

      • 265

        In reply to paul-thurrott: 
        Okay keep telling the truth, but do you have to lean into it quite this much?  Here are some additional, ommitted truths: the x3 isn't available from carriers in the US and has to be bought through Microsoft or HP direct, as an unlocked device.  The lap dock which is a component of the x3 approach, is not yet available (it looks interesing).  The related suite of HP apps are not yet live, either.   So there are reasons to hold off on the obituary, and to take into account that it will be a slower roll out than with earlier devices that were more widely available through the big carriers and that were complete at this stage in their release.  The x3 is an interesting concept not yet proven.  It is also a very impressive device as it is now, notwithstanding the above.  The build quality is higher than with the 950's and it has a fingerprint scanner.  It recalls the 1520 in a positive way.  Other truths: the enterprise market (at which the x3 is almost exclusively aimed, which wasn't the case for the 950's) is much slower to adopt any new device than the general consumer market.  As the lap dock and the HP suite are not yet available, it might be more closer to the mark to think of this period as "pre-launch" or a soft launch.  Micorsoft continues to state that it is and will remain in the Mobile market and they continue to release new builds of W10 M.  
        I know it doesn't really matter how hard-headed or well I argue against the cold count.  But it is a little disappointing to track how the general gloomy sourness of the coverage of W10M has calcified into what reads as hostility and malace (however well intended), particulalry from a site that is itself in the early stages of transforming itself and openly solicitous of patient support while the site can be grown out.  I do not equate with W10M and am happy to see that this place has had a better initial re-launch than the x3.  Would it have helped if someone were morbidly tracking your early sign-up rates, and then repeatedly posting about the lack of Premium content while you were in the process of building it out?  If all summer people posted, "Premium?  There's nothing and no one there!  It's a dead zone! It's a pointless, nonexistent waste of time and money."  Instead, you pays your money and you takes your choice.  You sign up, keep your interest and your spirits up and hope for the best.  
        My choice includes the x3 and even as a stand alone, I would not trade it for any of the other phones available now.  YVMV   


      • 5349

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        "We have passed the point where someone can say something uneducated like, "well it works fine for me." No. It doesn't. You are artificially limiting your capabilities. Period. "

        I have to disagree here. I have been running the Nexus 6P since July largely based on your review. It is a fine phone, but for ME, largely a meh experience. The only thing I do with it above my 1520 is the Southwest airlines app because I fly to AZ a couple times a year. For me the app gap is a single entry.

        • 2

          In reply to richfrantz:

          That's my point, it isn't. You are limited to what the 1520 offers. You are not limited when you go Android because everything is there. So it's neat that Southwest is still on WP for some reason. But they'll be gone soon, too. And all those new apps that you may or may not fine useful will never be on WP. You're just limited your possibilities. 

          • 205

            In reply to paul-thurrott:

            I honestly and intellectually, from what i gather from following just about everything you've written and podded the past 3-4 years, think you're a bit emotionally blinded. I'm not a nerd or fanboy or troll. I'm a middle aged, successful CEO of a small company, decent debater and a "people person".

            I'm tech savvy and a tech enthusiast. As tech go-to-guy at work and in my family I spend a lot of time with Android and iOS, plus recommend either to most people.

            But I choose X3 myself - an intellectual choice based on my needs and preferences. And sure there are more apps on the other two eco-systems. But I can only imagine to or three I would want, and none I need. I have parking, banking and all other crucial.

            You write about what you want on your site. You of course have a MS-fanbase that you might be looking to broaden. If you want to cater to the maybe small WP-part of that base is absolutely your call. You can force them to Windows Central if you want to get rid of them.

            Cause I strongly believe that is what you are doing. With iPhone you give them some scorn but an honest review. With WP it's just the scorn, although I guess you see it as "no apps = worthless" is your honest auto-review for everything WP.

            I realize WPs position. But there is a company (MS) choosing to invest millions in this, OEMs doing likewise. Are they all braindead and should follow your sound advice? Is there maybe a play for the future to be made, however unlikely?

            Listen to the latest Windows Central podcast where they interview an HP product manager on the X3. Is that just marketing talk? Are they totally stupid throwing money down the drain? Or are they making a play for a possible part of a "new" market segment?

            If I have to look for it elsewhere I respect your choice, but I would love to keep getting your feedback and educated reviews on Windows Mobile, both software and the hardware it's running on. I follow you for a reason.

            • 1377

              In reply to Travelrobert:

              . . . You can force them to Windows Central if you want to get rid of them. . .

              Indeed. You want next to nothing but positivity about Windows 10 Mobile and Windows phones, Windows Central is definitely the best site to read. Any other site may offer (GASP!) reality in the guise of criticism. Can't have that, can we?

          • 5349

            In reply to paul-thurrott:

            I know what my needs are. I'm here reading your site. So if after all your reviews, I am still fond of, and prefer, my 1520, and you consider me uneducated for that, then that implies my premium sub is a waste of my money.

            • 1377

              In reply to richfrantz:

              Always a risk you'd waste your money paying for Premium. However, had you followed this site for a while, you should have been aware of the frequency of articles critical of Windows phones. Myself, I don't want the articles to change just because most paying readers want everything to be sunshine and roses for all things MSFT.

            • 430

              In reply to richfrantz:

              The fact remains, though, that you are limiting yourself even if your phone/platform of choice meets your needs.  I still largely prefer the WP/WM UI and way of doing things, but a recent forced temporary return to my 1520 was a harsh reminder of the things I can't do in that ecosystem now, and that is something that's only going to get worse with time.  Honestly, I could get by with the Palm Pre3, the Bold 9000, the OG iPhone, or even the HTC Tilt II in the bottom drawer of my storage cabinet at work, but why would I do that to myself?  Every one of them had things I absolutely loved at the time, but time and technology has moved on.  With Microsoft abandoning WM in all but the most literal sense, how is this any different?

              • 4841

                In reply to bassoprofundo:

                Oh, please, one could say the same about Chromebooks, that you're limiting yourself by using that piece of crap, but I never, EVER, read a single article of Paul's telling me this. Worse, I've seen a few with him claiming ChromeOS with Android apps have the potential of weakening Windows' foothold in the desktop, completely disregarding the fact that phone apps in desktop environments work just as well as desktop/Win32 apps in tiny phone screens, that is, not at all, their UI and UX would have to be adapted to bigger screens, keyboard and mouse for Google's gamble to remotely work and no one is going to bother with that for the sake of Chromebooks' pathetic market share.

            • 1292

              In reply to richfrantz:

              Hey, the paying customer is not always right! ;)

          • 1377

            In reply to paul-thurrott:

            You're confusing needs and possibilities. No question possibilities are fewer on Windows phones than iPhones and Android phones, but needs are usually fewer. You seem to be assuming all phone users need the same things. That sweeping an assumption needs some foundation.

          • 591

            In reply to paul-thurrott: This position also misses that point that every phone has its limitations.  iOS users are limited to that 'whack-a-mole' launcher from 10 years ago.  When I do use my wife's iphone I scroll, and scroll before swiping down to type in the app name.  I can't find anything on that thing.  Not a problem on Win Phone - informative tiles and easily organized launch list.  My children have all moved to different Android phones.  I constantly deal with sudden lock-ups, dead batteries and even replaced one handset -- twice.  And then there are the fires (I know, too easy).  Most app services have a website equivelent.  Even the Airline mentioned above.  WP7 was way more limiting because it had no apps and no website compatibility.  We all make our compromizes and are limited in some ways.  I would rathe have the Windows Phone features and pin websites to replace apps than deal with iOS or Android every day.  And no, I'm not uneducated.
          • 4841

            In reply to paul-thurrott:

            Sigh, it's not always about apps, even if they do play a big role.

            What I look in a mobile OS first and foremost is an UI that allows me to open my most used apps with one touch if I'm at the home screen and two if I'm not. Windows Mobile gives me this - I fit 32 apps in my Lumia 950 XL start screen in various tile sizes without needing to swipe up or down to see more - but iOS and Android don't, not without using folders or app pages, both of which add extra steps to open the app I want and thus I abhor using.

      • 1792

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        I agree. I have 950 and so does my wife. I just like the camera. That's how I justify it in my mind. I do have an Android Samsung S6 too. The camera is pretty good too.

        My wife has limited needs; camera, facebook, spotify, email, calls and text. She has the tiles on the front and it works. BBC Sport also has an app so she can get her sporting fix.

        She actually like less complexity. I would say she is not unique but certainly on the minimalist side of smartphone purchasing. 

        For me the 950 isn't good enough. I do use it stubbornly every day with some kind of hope I shouldn't have that Microsoft may get their act together. Yes I know it's silly. Daft. No excuses. You are right. I knew that 18 months ago but what can I say.

        • 1377

          In reply to ponsaelius:

          . . . Microsoft may get their act together. . .

          That's the main point. At this point to fix the app gap, what would MSFT need to do? Perhaps BUY a dozen key app makers because those app makers may have made rational business decisions that with less than 3% usage share, the cost of developing and maintaining apps for Windows phones even with the iOS bridge may exceed the benefits from doing so. What else could MSFT do? Sell phones at a loss? At some point the MSFT board may object. OK, maybe a give-away, like sending a free 950 to 1-in-10 Office 365 subscribers. That might piss off the retail channel, but they're not doing much for MSFT anyway, so screw 'em.

  7. 289

    Paul, you just can't help yourself can you? In previous posts, and during several podcasts, you've continually reminded folks not to get too excited about the Elite X3 because it was targeted directly at businesses.  You talked about the need to re-think what it means to "succeed"- specifically noting that while the X3 might never be a big consumer hit, if looked at in the context of the PC market and this enterprise play, that in fact HP could have a successful product.  You reminded folks that while everyone talks about the "success" of Surface, there are in fact relatively few of them sold; that none of the top-selling PCs will ever approach the millions of sales seen by top phones.  And always, you noted that the X3 was not going to "save" Windows Mobile and suddenly catapult the platform back into relevance.  At best it would be a profitable venture for HP that found a small place of its own within the PC universe.  These were all sensible, well-reasoned points that coalesced into a relatively clear, and tempered, set of expectations. 

    Then we get the first usage numbers since the slow/stuttery release of the X3 and you immediately shout "FAIL".  Honestly, what kind of numbers were you expecting given the target market, the pricing and the timing and specifics of the launch.  This thing basically slipped out before it was ready, without the Anniversary Update, then was temporarily available through the MS store.  And did you expect that enterprise would jump on this immediately, or that they would do the enterprise thing and wait a few months to see how HP's pilot programs went and how MS advanced the platform with AU and then Redstone 2?

  8. 6067

    Wasn't the X3 released a few weeks ago?  So a device that was just released should be at the top as far as market share after being out for a couple of weeks?  Although Paul no longer uses Windows Phone (honestly neither do I) there are still plenty of people who can get along just fine with Windows Phone.  If your not interested in using your phone to post everything you do socially or play games on your phone then it's a fine operting system that does lots of things really well.  I wouldn't run around telling all my friends to go buy Windows Phones but there are plenty of people still plenty interested and happy with Windows Phone. Don't really understand the need to constantly hammer it the way Paul has been lately.  There is plenty of interesting stuff about WP and the X3 that it warrants a review... and there are plenty of people interested in the device and some of it's unique features... you're basically calling it total crap without reviewing it instead.

  9. 1488

    While I don't mind Paul not wanting to review a new Windows Mobile Phone, I would know if he is keeping up with it at all. If not, then don't use it in comparisons. A few times, IIRC he has mentioned a lack of a feature that is now in there.

  10. 443

    Paul, this comment is unlikely to reverse your decision... but it would be good to have some sort of a review of the x3 but solely from an enterprise perspective. There is value in Continuum over the iPhone or Android, we're just not sure what it is yet...

    • 4295

      In reply to MarkPow:

      I agree.  I'm honestly dissapointed that you're declining to review a flagship windows device, for whatever that's worth.  I can see this being something very useful for me, perhaps next year if the indication of app development for things like Mail improves with continuum, I think I may be able to use this for my work as a far more convenient means of emailing etc on the go, with something like a Next Dock.  The problem I have using my Surface Pro 3 on the go, and Desktop at work is that the full Outlook app takes a long time to sync, especially when tethered.

      Anyway, just my $0.02.

    • 2742

      In reply to MarkPow:

      Caveat, long time Msft fan and still using a Lumia 950, at least until Google drops the price of the Pixel, but I think your comment sums things up in a nutshell:  "There is value in Continuum over the iPhone or Android, we're just not sure what it is yet..."

      First, it's hard to understand how value can be seen when admittedly you’re “just not sure what it is yet”.  And second, this underscores the diehard hope many of us have/had: “There MUST be some value over the competition, but we aren’t able to find it, but we’ll still keep hoping”.

      I tried going Continium-only on a recent trip and carried my 950, a bluetooth travel keyboard and Miracast dongle.  The result?  It was a novelty exercise but demonstrated, esp for broad adoption, this is a technology in search of a real world problem to solve.

      Microsoft lost the phone business 7 years ago, the next wave of computing is AI and virtual Assistants, and I only pray Microsoft is not going to squander this market shift as well.


      • 443

        In reply to Clarkb:

        "this is a technology in search of a real world problem to solve." I agree, that and... I.... just... can't let go of the hope! Lol

        I am interested to see how virtual assistants make it into the enterprise, presumably we'll start mulling business decisions with coffee machines

      • 1292

        In reply to Clarkb:

        If you use any sort of remote access solution in your corporate environment you can instantly see the value of continuum. For me its replacing a WYSE Tx0 zero client and a Blackberry smart phone with one X3. As long as the remote stuff, mobile calendar, email, phone parts all work, we are good! There is no business value for endless amounts of fart apps found in the consumer app stores.  

    • 2

      In reply to MarkPow:

      There is no value to Continuum anywhere with phone. This thing has no native apps that people want and can only "run" desktop applications through remote sessions. So an iPad or Chromebook is just as viable. More, because they have real apps.

      • 1292

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        There has been a number of posters on this very site that have stated otherwise. One guy said their company was even doing a PoC with X3. Apps aren't the be all end all in Enterprise. Once you MDM the hell out of the said mobile platform and the user gets the I.T. view of the users app world, all 3 (or 4 if you count Blackberry) are all the locked down damn same!

      • 443

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        From an enterprise point if view it's hardly a bed of roses deploying Androids, iPads and iPhones. I don't feel there is a definitive mobile solution yet.

        If Microsoft focuses on security and device provisioning\management (particular in a Group Policy based way) then I think Continuum has some real potential, even an edge if you have any custom Microsoft based apps in your enterprise and you haven't developed the app for it yet. Also, you can deploy more display docks (or HP equivalent) in a hot desking environment or breakout area than you can desktops or surface pro docks. However, yes, its difficult to argue against the app gap. I just hoped you'd do a review - perhaps there's someone over at Petri who wouldn't mind kicking the tyres...

      • 4841

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        This thing has enough apps that enterprises heavily invested in the Microsoft ecosystem want: Office, Sharepoint, Power Bi, you can run them all there. That's the beauty of restricting marketing of Windows Mobile phones to enterprises for the foreseeable future: the lack of popular consumer apps like Snapchat and Pokemon Go doesn't impact their purchase decision.

        Also, Continuum with RS2 improvements will be better for real productivity tasks than iPads at the very least.

      • 691

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        But you claimed in a previous First Ring Daily episode that most enterprise "apps" are web-based now anyway so why wouldn't Continumm make sense.

      • 1377

        In reply to paul-thurrott:

        For remote virtual desktops, docked Android phones are just as viable as iPads and Chromebooks. The only advantage Windows phones with Continuum would have is running local apps under Continuum without a network connection. How much demand for that?

  11. 691

    Considering the x3 it's focused exclusively for the business market you should assume this product will take time to be evaluated by the enterprise. No one should expect a quick jump in sales after release. In fact this product is really waiting for Redstone 2.

  12. 250

    Maybe, maybe not on the x3. I don't think the targeted enterprise buyers are in the market yet, so the initial low number collapsing to an abysmal number in short order would reflect the enthusiasm of early adopters (like me) who are making personal purchases, not corporate buys. I have never seen an enterprise environment in which the purchasing department races to be among the first to get into a new system or commit to a new software release. The company I worked for last wouldn't even upgrade to a new version of Windows until it was at least 18 months old. I wouldn't think there would be enough evidence to suggest a fate for the HP system before the middle of next year at the earliest, and even that is possibly too early.

    Is there any way to read the AdDuplex data to estimate the number of units sold? At the weak end of the curve I have no idea whether we are talking about 10,000 Elite x3s moved or 100,000 -- or some other quantity entirely. The "this month" link in your article errors out so I can't see any of the data, and I couldn't find my way to that table on their web site.

    For that matter, do we know or can we guess how many units of the 950 series were moved? I gather from what you reference above that the basic 950 outsold the XL around two to one.


    • 1377

      In reply to MacLiam:

      IDG and Gartner both publish estimates of new smartphone shipments every quarter, so not that hard to find estimates of overall total units shipped. Unfortunately, Windows phone shipments are part of the Other bucket. OTOH, if the numbers of MSFT or HP phones shipped and/or sold were good news, do you expect either MSFT or HP would keep that a secret?

  13. 5496

    This doesn't mean anythng. From what I read from that report, if I' reading it correctly. It looks like a mess, and hard to follow.

    They are only looking at one day. They are just looking at Oct. 19th.

    You can just look at 1 day and come to a conclusion.

    It just came out a couple weeks ago, give it some time.

  14. 5539

    The Elite X3 is not intended as a mainstream device. This site, HP, and every other mention of it has made that point. Unless you hang out in tech forums or MS stores, you don't even know it exists. There have been no broadcast ads that I know if, though there are some online, linked from tech sites.  No US carrier supports it. In fact with GSM only, Verizon customers couldn't even use it. Sort of an odd choice for a business focused device, IMHO. Not Sprint either.  HP may or may not (anymore) have a plan for this, but it doesn't involve a massive, expensive, manstream ad campaign to make the public aware they can pay full price for it. So, what were people thinking would happen?

  15. 5663

    Its a pity Paul isn't going to review the X3, still I'm not likely to buy one. I'm posting this from my Spectre X360. My phone is a 930 but I've also got the 950 bought for £249 including the dock. I use it as my bedside tablet. I'm 57 and was a Sapper (Royal Engineer) from 16 to 40 and used a wide variety of equipment including some that was secret.

    Over the years have had a load of tech, starting with an Oric Atmos, then Atari STFM and STE, various PC's and Pocket PC's including a Compaq Aero 8000 which got stolen along with a Motorala GSM GPRS phone. Atari Lynx 2's, Playstation, PS2 and PS3. Various tablets, Nokia 770 Internet Tablet, Archos 101, Playbook 16 and 64 Gbyte, Surface RT and Galaxy Tab 2. Various phones, Sony-Ericssons and then Nokia Smartphones, 5800, N8, Lumia 800, 920, 930 and Microsoft 950. After all the programs, games and apps I've used on that lot I dont really need many more. On my 930 I've got Social, Video, Music, Games, Banking, Catchup and Live TV, Travel even Auto Trader and more. What I don't need are the myriad of apps that are there just to make it easier to spend your money.

    Most of the items mentioned were bought when they had been reduced in price.(not the Spectre). My first phones were on Contract but my N8 was bought at £399, 920 and 930 bought around £330 and 950 as mentioned £249. I can stick with the 930 and the 950 while they last, they've both got good cameras. I'm at the stage with phones that I was with my Atari ST's (I dropped my STFM so ended up with an STE), but i used them for years before I needed to go to PC. When I need to switch from Windowsphone, I'll probably move back to Sony if the phones are still being made, at least they look different

  16. 5842

    Paul, leave windows alone and go with Android and iPhone.

    HP build new phone and all we get is this whiny "lost", "over" and "failed" crap. Seriously I am not going to read anything you write about windows/azure again. Not a big loos for you but I would feel much better. Reading and listening to whining is so damn draining.

  17. 1294

    Looks like it was a good call changing the page name from winsupersite to Thurrott.   now that the information provided is "No one should be shackled by the Windows phone ecosystem", I guess the bulk of news from now on will just be Apple and Android with a remaining 8% of why we should not be in the Microsoft ecosystem

  18. 5981

    I hope HP received a big cash injection from MS for releasing the Elite X3. If they didn't then HP is going to lose soo much on this thing.


  19. 5411

    Paul please tell us all the apps you must have that windows phone does not have. That may sway me to your way of thinking. Your now soft approach on Google  Chromebooks is disturbing. I don’t like Google (even though I made $3000 a month with AdSense when it first started in 2003, then by 2012 with much more traffic $150.) I may have misunderstood but I paid for premium for a windows perspective, but more and more seeing games, iOS and android posts dominating the site. 

    For example today:

    Google Pixel XL First Impressions

    Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare Beta Now Available on Xbox One

    Anniversary Update is Now on 77 Percent of Windows 10 PCs

    Windows Device Stats: Windows 10 Mobile and HP Elite x3 Both Stumble in October

    Nintendo Unveils Its Mobile First Vision for the Future Video Games

    Google Ships First Android 7.1 Developer Preview

    And to quote another poster.

    “So if after all your reviews, I am still fond of, and prefer, my 1520, and you consider me uneducated for that, then that implies my premium sub is a waste of my money.”

    • 5411

      In reply to rortech:

      Update oct. 22

      I paid for premium for a windows perspective, but more and more seeing games, iOS and android posts dominating the site.

      HP Spectre x360 (2016) First Impressions

      Google Pixel XL: The Morning After

      Google Pixel XL First Impressions

      Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare Beta Now Available on Xbox One

  20. 7046

    Paul can be negative if he wants, guys. It's weird he's chosen to make a living off covering the daily goings on of something he now hates, and shits on the people that pay his salary, but that's his choice. Just like using and liking Windows is yours. 

  21. 7625

    In reply to rortech: Paul just doesn't like Windows anymore. All he does is posting how bad windows is and Windows phone in general. Maybe google finally paid him more...


  22. 6062

    Can't wait for Paul's analysis of MSFTs earnings report. If anyone can find the negative and throw a wet blanket on it, It's Paul.

  23. 326

    Windows 10 mobile, crap or good enough computing ?


    Fight !!!

  24. 7314

    In reply to paul-thurrott:

    Look guys, there was NO ONE who was a bigger fan of Windows Phone than me.  But I agree with Paul.   The platform is pretty much dead.  Throw some combi pads on that sucker, set the machine to 300 joules, yell "Clear!" and push the button!  The ONLY way for WP to come back from the dead is for Microsoft to simultaneously come out with a killer "Surface" phone, get Snapchat to publically announce that they are coming out with an app for the platform, and get Usher, Katy Perry, and Beyonce to appear together in an ad pushing the phone!  Come on guys!  The writing is on the wall.   No one wants the platform to succeed more than me, but you have to be realistic.  iPhone Phanboys and Android Zombies rule the celluar phone market.  Period.

  25. 7102

    I use a Lumia 950 from time to time, but went over to android for my daily driver for some months ago. And I must say Paul is correct. Windows Phone/Mobile are basicly dead at this point. I think it had some chance in some Europeans market where it had around 10 %. But then Nadella killed it off, especially the most important bridges to fork android apps to Windows 10 mobile. Not releasing a single new Lumia after the Lumia 650 was a bad sign to. In retro perspective I think maybe the best think would have been to not buy Nokia and let them to continue with the forked android version with Microsoft apps.

    And I suppose something like that are Microsoft strategy in mobile now, pre-install some Windows apps in Samsung and Lenovo devices. I have my doubt if any companies actually will buy the HP elite.

  26. 4959

    Paul, you often quote AdDuplex figures, but they only measure a small fraction of the Windows phone app usage (apps that display ads via Ad Duplex).  I have a couple of apps in the Windows store and I use the Microsoft ad service, not Ad Duplex. How many developers would choose Ad Duplex?

    Your usage of their stats assumes 1) that apps with Ad Duplex are representative of all apps (why would that be the case?) and 2) That every windows phone out there uses routinely at least one app instrumented with Ad Duplex -- very doubtful.  Many Windows Phone users mostly use the built-in apps - Outlook, OneNote, Edge, Maps, etc. and these are never counted by Ad Duplex. 

    Be careful what conclusions you draw from such limited data.

  27. 7071

    I use Linux on my work desktop PC. Linux on the desktop has a market share of 1 %, just like Windows Mobile.

    According to Paul, I must be uneducated or retarded or something like that.

    How about this: a tool that gets the job done is just the perfect tool. It is irrelevant what market share it has or what other things you can do with a tool.

    This whole talk about market share is just foolish.

  28. 6012

    My Grandpa likes WP because its easy to read. I'll pick up an X3 for him when they are $100 next year

  29. 5641

    so first things first. I don't se any issues with Windows Phone hardware vs iPhone \ android devices. All are capable. Next, the os. All provide a nice interface, usual functions like mail etc. They are fast, user friendly etc.

    One of the advantages Windows Phone has over iPhone or Android is Continuum. So how about this.

    Configure a Windows phone with a big screen, keyboard etc and give it to a modest tech user ( your mum, aunt, uncle etc) and see how they get on. A sort of PC replacement that doubles up as a phone.

    Id be interested in the reception of this type of use case. Note, the big screen is the point here. Run movies show pictures, try Netflix, browse the web. Etc etc.

    do people prefer this to a phone\ laptop experience? Is the app gap still an issue. Would it be useful to go to someone else house and drop your phone into a cradle to show of your pics on the big screen? Is it cost effective to do this?


  30. 5553

    Windows Weakly LOL

    Blah blah blah hadoop blah blah blah..let's do beer !l

  31. 4743

    I still think this phone fits for me in some sense.  I know it doesn't have the apps that the other 2 platforms do.  But, I want a 6" screen cause I'm blind as a bat as they say.  Actually, I have been eyeing the Mi Max from Xaiomi because I think 6.4 would be fine with me.   I know it's too big for most, but not me.  I have been dying with the "small" 950XL screen.  I loved my 1520, and to be honest, liked it better than the 950XL except for the camera.  If the camera were good on the x3 I'd pay for it, but I am at a crossroads because I'd like high end specs, a big screen, and a great camera.  And nobody makes one really.  The x3 is really the closest.   

  32. 5530

    lol, HP is getting burned by Microsoft just like Nokia. Remember how Nokia couldn't deliever on competitive specs because Microsoft was behind in adding support for higher resolutions and dual core CPUs? Now in 20-fucking-16 we see HP delivering a flagship (read: expensive) Windows Phone.........with the fingerprint sensor disabled out of the box. NOPE. As a former Windows Phone loyalist, I've seen this happen before. And i'm not going to get smoked by Windows Phone again. I'm not even going to start on how Microsoft rebooting their platform for the third time just means people, both the users and developers, on the older platforms are left behind, again. And which developer would want to re-arhitect/re-write their app over and over just because the platform keeps moving their goalposts? So instead, they end support and pull their apps from the Store. Seriously, is this even surprising anymore?

  33. 1377

    What I find notable is the 4% AdDuplex shows for 'Windows 10' usage, presumably 1507. That's either a measure of cussedness of those willing to do whatever it takes to avoid upgrades, or a measure of PCs with metered Internet. If the latter, it may show Windows 10 isn't going to be much of a presence outside OECD countries anytime soon.

    FWIW, StatCounter for September 2016 shows Windows 10 on desktops at 24.4% worldwide, 27.3% North America, 30.1% Europe, 18.6% Asia, 12.5% Africa. Fascinating that Europe is leading North America.

    As for Windows 10 Mobile phones generally and the HP Elite x3, what does a docked Elite x3 offer which a docked Android phone with a Citrix Receiver app or the VMWare equialent that can run Windows desktop software remotely doesn't have? If most phone docks would have wired networking (maybe a big if), what would Continuum provide that access to remote virtual desktops wouldn't provide? The ability to run without a network connection may not be compelling.

  34. 1792

    I agree pretty much with all of this. Blackberry made the move to the "business market" a couple of years ago having straddled consumer and business. It sounds a believeable strategic move if there is a "business market" as a differentiator. 

    I guess there are some businesses that buy specific phones these days. However I suspect that mostly people have gone past buying a separate business phone and go for dual use. From that perspective it means supporting iphone and android. 

    Continuum is great. It's largely a business feature. Unless there really is a business market it will largely be cool for demo but irrelevant to buyers. 

    Given the HP Elite X3 is more expensive than an iphone or Google Pixel it needs to be a compelling buy. Plus you need to add keyboard and screen to that price!

  35. 5496

    People complain about the price of this, but yet, they would spen the same, or more on an iPhone.

    Paul and others only brings up apps when it come to Windows Phone. Not everone cares about app. And Windows phone have the apps they need. That's why they use it.

  36. 6692

    The Elite X3 is just priced to not sell. I'd happily buy one; for £100. Quite happy with my 640 at the moment though. Even the 950 is just too pricey.

  37. 5553

    My Obama phone runs Android Minus4 

  38. 4094

    I would agree Windows phone/mobile for the consumer is dead, so move on.  MS is tired of throwing away money.   HP's Elite X3 is marketed for corporate customers, not consumers, and HP has the money for an investment like this even if it fails.   As much as I would love another Windows phone, I doubt we will see one for a long time, if ever, for consumers.   And as tantalizing as it might seem to buy an X3, the App Gap is just too big, and getting bigger.  A year or so from now when HP decides the X3 is not worth the expense because corporate customers are saying, "There are only 2 apps left for Windows phone, why would we buy this?", it could die too.   

    For now, I will suffer with crude Android phones (yuck), and think about what could have been for the Windows phone.

  39. 7037

    The Elite X3 tried to be the Nintnedo Switch of smartphones. Business people and individuals already have laptops, 2-in-1s or tablets and smartphones.

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