Ask Paul: August 21 (Premium)

Happy Friday! For the penultimate Ask Paul in August, we have another great set of reader questions to kick off the weekend.

The inventors of the Internet

ErichK asks:

Paul, I think we all agree the Internet was/is a revolution. Do you think its inventors will be remembered centuries from now (assuming humankind is still here)? Or does it not have the same weight as, say, electricity or the light bulb.

I’m sure Al Gore will be remembered for decades to come, yes.

Kidding.

It absolutely has the same weight as electricity, in fact, I think it should be treated as an essential service like electricity, water, and plumbing. As to whether we’ll remember the people responsible for this, I’m not sure most people even have a handle on that today, so the future is unclear. Even I’m not that up on this part of history, though I’m into history generally and the history of personal computing specifically.

Nest Cam

cottonwood asks:

How are the Google Nest Cam Outdoor cameras working out? Any interesting wildlife spotted since installation?

They haven’t really worked out at all. I was never able to configure the backyard camera to not see cars driving by despite multiple attempts, and I lost interest in trying to sift through the many records it made each night. The most I ever saw was some cool insects. We never bothered putting up the one in the front, and we’ll probably just sell them soon.

Obviously, this kind of thing is mostly for home security and I have no interest in that type of usage. The quality was good, as was the software. But just not for what I wanted.

Surface Duover

christianwilson asks:

We don’t know how well Surface Duo will do in the marketplace but I have noticed a lot of people like the idea but the cost of the device and people’s attachment to their current phone of choice are the considerable barriers to entry … If Surface Duo was launched as something more of a productivity companion that complemented your phone and computer instead of being the phone, do you think more people would take a chance on it?

I hope to someday learn the real motivation behind Microsoft’s weird fixation on dual-display mobile devices and I hope it’s more sophisticated than a blind desire to invent/formalize a new personal computing form factor. But I have a bad feeling that that’s all it is.

I still don’t understand the point of Surface Duo, but I do feel that Surface-branded Android devices could make sense. I’ve mentioned a Surface Pro form factor before, but a Surface Neo form factor—basically a larger Duo—would also make more sense if Microsoft insists on sticking for dual displays for some reason.

Both device types have a few problems, however. They could be used to replace Windows PCs, run Android, and could hasten the decline of Windows. And there’s no such thing as a successful Android tablet, so either would require lots of third-party support, not just Microsoft. But Microsoft optimizing its Microsoft 365 apps for large-display Android tablets is certainly a start. Assuming the firm doesn’t care about hurting Windows. (Which it might not since these devices would float Microsoft 365, at least theoretically.)

Future moves

bschnatt asks:

So…. these are follow-up questions to my inquiry about living in Phoenix.

1) What are the pros and cons to living in Dedham vs Emaus?

We first started thinking about moving after our roof and several windows were destroyed during a historically bad snowstorm in early 2015, but it seemed like any move would coincide with a post-high school downsizing or whatever (so 2020 or later) at the time. But when my daughter got interested in real estate between 2016 and 2017 and started bugging us to consider moving in early 2017, we had a long conversation with her during a road trip in which I figured I’d overcome this desire with financial reality. But as we talked about it, I realized that moving, even at that earlier and unexpected time, could make sense. I think I’ve told this story elsewhere, but we sort of started planning to look around in the Maryland/Delaware area later that year with an eye towards maybe moving in 2018. But part of that trip took us to Pennsylvania for a family event. And my stepmother (really, my father’s second wife, but whatever, I’ve known her since I was 3 or 4) was getting ready to sell the house she’d be living in for about 20 years. And here we are. It happened very quickly.

We thought the math of this move was obvious, but we made two mistakes. I would still do it again given what we learned since. But we would do one thing very differently.

The first mistake was to not just pay cash for this new house. We had enough to do so given what we had made from the house in Dedham, but after doing an inspection, we realized there were 10s of 1000s of dollars of work we wanted to do, especially to the electrical system, and we ended up getting a very small mortgage (less than $50,000) plus a home equity line of credit. We then quickly racked up 10s of 1000s of dollars in home improvements in the first six months we there. If I could do this all over again, I’d have paid cash for the house and made the improvements over a longer period of time and paid for each with cash as we went. I really regret that. Instead, we have about $100,000 in debt on the house now between the mortgage and equity line, and that’s just stupid. To break even, the house would need to rise in value by about that much by the time we sell it. It has risen in value by about $45,000 on paper. So chances are that we’ll lose money on it. We’ll see.

The second mistake was to assume that taxes in Pennsylvania were lower than they were in Massachusetts, a place that is so infamous for taxes that its nickname is Taxachusetts. But as it turns out, our property taxes here are higher here, in part because we live in an expensive school district. In Massachusetts, our house sold for $637,000 and the property taxes were $6000 per year. Here, we bought a house for $365,000 and the property taxes are $8000 per year. I literally assumed they’d be under $3000. That was our fault: We never even checked. If we moved outside of this school district, we could conceivably cut our half taxes in half assuming it was a house of the same value, or less. But … Whatever. We’re here.

Overall, the cost of living here is probably lower, but it wasn’t the bonanza we expected. We’ll move again, but it’s not clear when or where. We like this area a lot, we’ve made friends, we have family here, we have favorites restaurants, and so on, and there have been some nice surprises like the quality of some of the wineries (at least two are as good as anything on the west coast). This is a much rural area than suburban Boston—we see deer and hawks and bunnies every day walking the dog—and where we live in particular is unbelievably quiet and thus ideal for me. The noise in Dedham—dogs barking, general neighbor stupidity, etc.—-was an ongoing problem. I honestly don’t miss Dedham per se, or even the general area. I certainly don’t miss the weather, the idiot drivers, or the density of the population.

We do miss our friends from Boston, of course. But aside from the pandemic, we go back and visit several times a year, and our friends have visited here many times too. It’s a five-hour drive, so it’s doable.

I’ve been researching other cities to possibly move to, and Sedona is one of them (the altitude brings some relief from the scorching heat and some welcome snow in winter, and the views are nice). I’ve also thought about Coeur D’Alene, ID, Grand Rivers, KY, New Smyrna Beach, FL and Grand Haven, MI (yes, they all have one thing in common – a water view!). Any thoughts on any of those places?

I’ve been to Sedona, and one of the weird things about Arizona is that it has a surprisingly diverse set of ecosystems—grasslands, forests, tundra, desert, and so on—and isn’t just a desert as many imagine. Sedona is unique, for sure. And not as brutally hot as Phoenix or Tucson. But if I were going to move out west again, Colorado would be my choice. And that’s certainly a possibility.

But we want to at least think about and investigate some places on the east coast too. The Maryland/Delaware area is still on the list, and we have family there, plus it’s close to here (where I have family) and Washington D.C., which I love but probably can’t afford to live. We’re interested in Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina as well.

The water view thing is a nice coincidence. We’re interested in that—and that, plus the cost of living, explains Maryland/Delaware—as well. We’ll pay more attention to the total cost of living whatever we do next, for sure. I’m really bothered by the mistakes we made here.

Major changes to Windows?

madthinus asks:

Heard any more titbits on the Windows 10 refresh/changes coming? Any indication of when this will show up or is a 2021/2022 timeframe?

No, I have a source whom I could kind of press on this, but I try not to do that and I’ve honestly been avoiding them on purpose for this reason. But as Brad and I discussed on First Ring Daily today, I’m starting to wonder if some of the changes we’ve seen recently—the shift to fake feature updates for the H2 releases, the move of WSL 2.0 into older Windows 10 versions, Project Reunion and WinUI 3, and so on—aren’t part of a broader push towards a new Windows updating/servicing strategy. I’ll probably air this out a little more formally in a post soon.

The Apple problem

Vladimir asks:

I completely agree with you position about Apple practices in the App Store and the need for regulation. However, it struck me that you believe that the problem is the cut Apple takes on app sales and subscriptions and not so much their role as sole gatekeeper for installing apps on the phone. The amount of money they take is absurd, no question there. But, it seems to me that forcing them to reduce the cost would only be a temporary solution because they would substantially retain their monopoly. Allowing apps to be sideloaded and alternative stores seems a much more permanent solution because it would allow competition. It would be a bit like what happens with games on pc where you can choose between steam, epic, gog etc. I would be very interested in understanding the reasons for your position.

It’s not so much my belief about what should happen as it is me trying to guess what might be reasonably expected of Apple going forward, either by regulatory action or by self-imposed change because of the fear of that (or other legal) action. Is there an acceptable compromise that Apple, its developers, and its users could all agree on even if it’s not as extreme as any one party may prefer?

More specifically, Apple says that it doesn’t want to allow sideloading of apps for security reasons. Instead, it wants to make sure that all apps go through the one store that it provides and controls. And that’s a dual-edged sword. Apple’s closed system is inarguably safer than the “wild west” of app installs on more open platforms like Windows and Mac. But it’s also too tightly controlled, with non-transparent rules that are arbitrarily enforced, no other choices for both app distribution and payment systems, and the easily-proven abuse in which Apple simply enters markets that it knows to be popular and then unfairly tips the balance in its favor. And that’s before we even get to the crazy 30 percent vig.

So how do we balance the outcome such that it still has all the benefits that Apple claims its system provides but without the abuses? What I wrote last week was the following, with some minor expansions:

Lower fees. Apple’s 30 percent vig is way too high, and this needs to be brought down to a more acceptable level. Epic charges 12 percent in its own game store. Maybe that’s the right level, but I think Apple can go lower because of the efficiency and scope of its operations. Single-digit fees would be best, just like the credit card companies charge.

No more fees on subscriptions. Taking a cut of in-app purchases is OK under two conditions—it’s only on one-time purchases and Apple offers a way for app makers to use other payment systems—but charging fees on subscriptions (Microsoft 365, Spotify, etc.) is not OK. Those fees need to disappear. Apple shouldn’t get $30 every year when I re-up on Microsoft 365 Family; that’s ridiculous.

Apple needs to let app developers communicate with their own customers. This would include directing those customers to a website where they can pay for something and not incur Apple’s fees.

Apple needs to let app developers use their own or other third-party payment systems.

But the part you take exception to is my comments that Apple should not be forced to let users side-load apps (as is possible with Android) or forced to allow third-party app stores on its devices. I probably should have expanded on that second bit at least, but let me expand on both now, if briefly.

Side-loading apps on iOS would compromise the central promise of the platform, which is that it is a safe haven for its users’ security and privacy. Any legitimate app should be able to go through the Apple App Store, and if the changes noted above are in place, they can do so without fear of retribution or unfair treatment.

By third-party app store, I literally mean standalone apps that are just stores. There’s no need for a “Joe’s App Store” on iOS. But apps can still sell to their customers. Amazon should be able to sell ebooks to its users in the Kindle app, and so on, but that’s just content. I don’t see any reason why Epic needs to have a game store in an app, but if the changes above happen, it can communicate about that store to its customers, and they could reach it on the web.

As much as I feel that Apple’s unbelievably unfair and anticompetitive behavior needs to be reined it, I also feel just as strongly that there’s no reason to tear down what the firm has built. The App Store has its merits, for sure. The problem isn’t that it exits, it’s that Apple abuses it.

Android on Surface Pro X?

peterc asks:

Hi Paul. Do you think we will see an android option for the Surface Pro X? or will any further android surface options come in the smaller surface go format?

I do think that there should be an Android-based Surface Pro device. But offering Android on the existing Surface Pro X is something I’d not considered. I’m going to guess that this would problematic because the chipset it uses isn’t exactly in the same family/class as the ARM chipsets used in Android handsets and tablets, but maybe I’m wrong. If that could be done with any degree of reliability, that could be interesting.

Xbox Series X pricing

macadder1980 asks:

Considering your long history with Xbox launches, do you have any idea how they might price the Series X?

Everything is so different this time, it’s hard to say. We do know that when the Xbox One launched at $500, there was outrage all around, but it’s hard to imagine Microsoft selling a flagship console like the Xbox Series X for less than that today. They were able to knock the Xbox One price down to $400 when they removed the Kinect, and the Series X won’t have a Kinect, so… $400?

Maybe that’s a fantasy given its high-end components. And the latest rumor I’ve seen said it could actually be $600. Ugh. I hope not.

Keep up the great work. As an Apple guy, love listening to and reading your stuff. As a Dutchman, I relate to your sense of humor.

🙂 Thanks!

 

Google’s business model

AnOldAmigaUser asks:

It seems lately, that despite your preference for Android, that you are getting more concerned about Google’s data collection: In Praise of iOS 14 being a case in point. Is this a fair assessment?

I don’t see it as recent, or as a change, just something that comes up from time to time. For example, I moved to Edge from Chrome in early 2019 for this reason, and I’ve been advocating that no one should be using Chrome regardless of what other browser they choose. I do happen to prefer Android to iOS, but I also realize the compromises there, and were I to switch, I’d just have other things I didn’t like. Every choice has a pitfall.

With DHS, the Secret Service, and other federal, state and local government agencies now buying data that would have required a warrant before, do you see the surveillance economy as a threat to our rights.

Yes. It feels kind of inevitable in a way, but I’ve always been bothered by the argument that if you have nothing to hide, then you have nothing to be worried about. Everyone has something to be worried about in an authoritarian regime that doesn’t value personal privacy rights.

The point of targeted ads does not seem terrible, but the idea of a free market for this information scares the willies out of me. We all have nothing to hide, until we do; until that one search for a legal, or medical term, not necessarily related to yourself, that really needs to be private. Most readers here probably know how to make that so, but the majority of people do not.

I hope that one day we look back on this period as a time of technological immaturity. That it will be like when you see everyone smoking in a black and white movie and can’t believe it was ever really like that. But we live in a world in which drug companies can market directly to consumers and where fake news and fake facts are determining elections. This is a huge problem, and I’m worried that it’s just going to keep getting worse.