Ask Paul: April 8 (Premium)

Happy Friday! Not surprisingly, given the events of this past week, we have a lot of questions. Actually, I do too.

Panos, Windows 11, and you

will asks:

I know you have talked about the Microsoft Hybrid Work event from this week, but overall I felt like this was just an odd marketing job for Windows and more specifically Windows 365.

Yeah. I found this event curiously unsettling for several reasons: Windows 11 shipped in incomplete form last October and this was a chance to make for that, but instead, they pretend that it’s the greatest release ever shipped. This was an opportunity to explain exactly what will be in the first feature update, but they didn’t do that. Panos Panay has always come off as a bit fake to me, and this event is maybe the best example. (Seriously, the rehearsed little chuckle when he said “security” one time made my skin crawl.) But the biggest issue I have with the Windows team, in general, is communication, and this event took that to 11 (sorry) by never once explaining when/where/how any of these features will ship; one of the Windows 365 features (offline) was literally described as something they “envision” coming to this product. What.

Personally I did not get excited about anything Panos was saying and he has that same “sales” approach for Windows that he did for Surface…and it is starting to get old.

Panos has always been divisive as a speaker. Some people really like his style and some people don’t. But more importantly, I don’t believe he has any particular interest in, let alone expertise with, Microsoft’s business offerings at all. I would point out how crazy it is that the guy running Microsoft’s least successful hardware business was promoted to run Windows, but then his predecessor was the guy who previously ran Windows Phone.

Not everything I do sitting at my Windows desktop is a passionate thing, it just is not. I am reading emails, updating work documents, using a line of business app, or fixing some driver that decided to go on a kamikaze mission deep inside Windows and mess $^&@ up.

Exactly. But you know what? Reading that, I feel like you might have actually explained why Panay is running Windows. At least from Nadella’s perspective: he likes the guy’s passion. Which I sometimes feel is manufactured.

But, I digress and wanted to ask two questions: First, do if you think the future Microsoft is going toward is Windows 365 in that the desktop Microsoft would like you to have is hosted, and you just launch it from an app or from a thin client? Second, do you think Microsoft will position ARM/mobile devices as the thin clients used to connect to Windows 365?

So, those are related. No, I don’t think the future of Windows is literally ARM-based thin clients accessing Windows 365. But this is Microsoft: these things will be among the choices available to customers. Some will go that route. Some will use their own personal and more traditional Windows PCs to access Windows 365 for work activities. Some will continue to just use separate PCs for each. Some will mix and match locally, etc. These are all choices now, and they will be in the future. And we’ll see how the usage mix changes in the future.

If you look at Office, Microsoft still makes traditional on-premises versions of the products because some customers demand it. But in the same way that it has made Microsoft 365 subscriptions a no-brainer for most/many users, it has likewise made the on-prem Office offerings less desirable/viable with each version. So we should look for that happening to Windows.

And then think about Windows 11 and how it’s prettier but dumber, and Windows 365, and wonder to yourself: is this shift already underway?

I noted one time of Terry Myerson that he was given the horrible and almost impossible task of making Windows make sense in Microsoft’s cloud-focused world, and that he was rewarded for succeeding by getting fired. You might view what’s happening now as the second phase of that work, that the functional regressions and annoyances in Windows 11, plus Windows 365 and its ongoing improvements, represent the next step.

Related to this, anoldamigauser asks:

What grade would you give Panos Panay?

I don’t understand where this guy even came from.

Part of the Steven Sinofsky story, which is part of the Programming Windows series that’s coming up, is that he felt very strongly that Microsoft needed to make its own hardware, and he felt that way because of Apple envy. This accelerated over time pretty quickly. His team designed a netbook convertible with Acer that they gave away at PDC 2008 and he spoke then about how much they had learned about designing hardware that would integrate well with Windows. They then co-designed a tablet PC with Samsung, which they gave to early Windows 8 reviewers so they could be sure that they would experience this new OS on a touch- and pen-capable slate. And then he went all-in and convinced CEO Steve Ballmer to greenlight Microsoft’s own PCs with Surface.

I guess we could still debate whether Microsoft competing with its own partners is/was smart or whatever. But from where I sit, this was one of the dumbest things Microsoft has ever done to Windows; that it happened simultaneously with Windows 8, one of the other dumbest things it has ever done to Windows is interesting. But this decision drove all PC makers to seek alternatives in the form of Chrome OS. And it’s not like Surface has set the world on fire. There are multiple examples of reliability issues and other problems. And let’s not get started on the slowness thing, and the delays in adopting USB-C and then Thunderbolt.

I’m not sure how fair this is, but these problems are all on Panos Panay. Who isn’t just the last Sinofsky-era holdover still at Microsoft today but is, incredibly, the only Sinofsky-era executive who now sits on the Senior Leadership Team and runs one of Microsoft’s biggest businesses. That’s very interesting when you think about it.

Short of the Surface Pro 3 and its follow up, I am not sure that the Surface team has delivered amazing devices. The Duo is not seeing huge uptake, the Neo has not come to market, and none of their other designs is compelling. Windows 11 sort of speaks for itself.

Ten years later, Surface is very much a boutique PC maker, not a major player. I suspect this helps keep PC makers at bay, because if Surface was too successful, there would be more complaints. What Surface has done is formalized (not invented) a single form factor, the Surface Pro design that, as you note, really started with Surface Pro 3. (Just like the MacBook Air form factor that we all celebrate actually started with the second version, not the first.) Is that … good? I guess.

Tech snowflakes

jasecutler asks:

Elon Musk bought enough shares of Twitter to be the largest individual shareholder and then land himself on the board.

It couldn’t have happened to a better online service.

I know you’ve shared your distaste of how large these tech companies get, and have talked many times about the needs of regulation and enforcement of anti-competitive/monopoly breaking stuff. But what I’m more curious is what you think of what some of these vast wealths the “tech industry” has minted on individuals in the past few decades. Elon bought a seat on his favorite platform to troll people, Bezos bought himself a rocket to take him to space, Zuckerberg bought most of a Hawaiian island… I’m sure there’s more examples. It doesn’t feel… like it’s going to end well. And do you have thoughts on how some of us should be talking about these people, as I feel like there’s really some unnecessary idolization of these wealthy tech owners as well.

Few people are going to like my opinion of this.

There is no such thing as a single human being who is worth millions of dollars a year, let alone billions. And the fact that we’ve minted more and more of these tech billionaires in recent years is just evidence that the vast gap between the rich and the poor in the U.S. in particular has just gotten worse. (Yes, this isn’t just about tech billionaires. This is true of sports stars, entertainers, whatever. The overvaluation of the few is a huge problem. But tech is the worst.)

This is something I could easily rant about but let me just use one example. I happen to live in a part of the country that was and still is a nexus for the shipment of goods. In the past, this was done by barges in canals and by trains. Today it is done by trucks. Trucks that drive to and from the thousands and thousands of warehouses, many run by or on behalf of Amazon, that now litter this area. These trucks are ruining local roads and highways. And they are causing huge traffic problems everywhere because the infrastructure was not designed for this level of activity.

So. Do we celebrate Jeff Bezos or Amazon because we can get something as superfluous as a candy bar, an iPhone case, or whatever the next day or even the same day? Or do we demonize them because they have littered our roads with trucks, devalued our property, ruined the scenery, and polluted the world? We do the former. But I think a huge chunk of his wealth, and Amazon’s wealth, should be going towards fixing the problems this company created. And not in propping up an individual.

Big Tech is a problem because it’s so big, and these companies are rich enough and powerful enough to say no to governments now. And that needs to stop. They need to be stopped. I would tax the shit out of any individual who is worth billions of dollars if it was up to me. And then use that money to make things right at a federal level. Imagine how much infrastructure work could be done. How many poor people could be fed and housed?

I know. Bleeding heart, etc. But seriously, think about it. How much would your life be transformed if someone handed you just $1 million right now, on top of whatever you have already, or will have? That is a more secure retirement. No fears about health costs as you age. College tuitions. Whatever. And now try to imagine—though you can’t, not really—that sum being $1 billion. Or several billions of dollars. Or hundreds of billions of dollars. You can’t. But this is what the few or playing with. It’s not right. And no, they do not deserve it. None of them do.

Programming Windows

oasis21 asks:

Hey, I’m a new subscriber, been following you, Mary Jo, Twit since I was a teenager – since the windows 8 days. I’ve been enjoying the programming windows series, I think you’re doing some great work there.

Thank you!

Wait, that’s not a question. 🙂

I have found this series fascinating to write, and I keep surprising myself by stumbling on information I’d completely forgotten about. I’ve been trying to figure out what the overreaching narrative is, if there is one, but I think the logical conclusion—which, go figure, I wrote almost two years ago—can be found in Programming Windows: We Fought the Web and the Web Won (Premium). Which is that Microsoft has tried to embrace and extend, and then replace and improve on, web technologies since there were web technologies. And that may have been the single biggest tactical mistake it ever made with Windows. It should have just embraced web technologies and open standards. It came so close so many times.

Related to this, helix2301 asks:

What are your thoughts on future of programming going forward? With Python, Javascript and so many opensource languages where does Microsoft land I know c# is huge.

I think that open technologies win in the end, and that’s true on mobile as well as desktop.

But that doesn’t mean that C# doesn’t and won’t have a role. Or other languages and frameworks. Today, you can target the web, mobile, and desktop with Flutter, for example. You can use .NET and C# to write web apps, Windows apps, and mobile apps. You can use pure web technologies—JavaScript/TypeScript with whatever frameworks—to write web, mobile, and desktop apps. You can run web apps locally on mobile or desktop as if they were native, etc.

What do you think of the developer programs for example with Microsoft its 10 dollars life time to join dev program and you can sign the programming using your own self signed cert and you just have to validate with your Microsoft Dev account. With Apple its 100 dollars a year and they have to sign the program using there cert or gatekeeper will not let you run the app unless you and disable gatekeeper. I myself have a few small free apps on my website and I am not paying 100 dollars a year to Apple for something I give away for free. While I do like the mac I use Windows as my platform for all my dev work just because I find it more open and less complex.

These things can’t last, though there will always be some cost associated with them, and it’s not unreasonable for a company providing a service to get paid for that service. What’s unreasonable in some cases is the cost. Apple’s Developer Program is too expensive for sure. And Microsoft charges a lot for Visual Studio, which is semi-unique and curious. I think the costs have to come down in all cases: platform makers should make it as easy as possible for developers to adopt their work. It just feels inevitable.

I know you have issues with Apple and while I like their platform I wonder if Microsoft cheaper cause they want to draw developers over to their platform. Apple despite the price we know they have a lot devs on their platform.

I once said of the iPhone that Apple’s greatest success was getting people to adopt a phone that had horrific battery life compared to the phones they had previously used. But really, Apple’s greatest success was getting developers to use the crappy NeXT-era developer tools they needed and still need to use to make iPhone apps. This says more about how important and lucrative this platform is than anything else.

Smart App Control

justme asks:

Regarding Smart App Control – if I understand your post correctly, if a user upgrades to a version of Windows 11 that has SAC, they will need to reset their PC. While possibly less of an issue on brand new PCs, how will the user know they need to reset the PC? Will the PC function at all if it isnt reset? If a user upgrades, will the reset happen automatically? Will this be rolled out through Windows Update or will this only affect people who upgrade, say from 10 to 11 (and new boxes, obviously). Is there a timeline for when this is to be rolled out?

These are all excellent questions. That Microsoft has not answered publicly to my knowledge. I watched the hybrid event and all three of the breakouts again yesterday. And the timing of these new features is not clear.

So I will speculate. I do not believe that Microsoft will promote or notify users about Smart App Control. (In fact, I’m not even sure this will be offered to individuals, but it could and should be.) Instead, PCs that are upgraded to the first Windows 11 feature update (or whatever) will continue to operate normally as they did before. If they are reset, Smart App Control will then be enabled.

That I have to speculate, and that you have so many questions, points to the issues I have with the Windows team these days and how vague their communications are. This isn’t under-promise, over-deliver. It’s promise vaguely and then remain silent for months at a time. It’s not good. But I suspect we will learn more in the future from blog posts, industry events, or whatever.

Huawei

Shane asks:

I decided to buy a Huawei MateBook 16. Now, this comes with Windows installed which I find strange being a US company when they cant use the Google Play Store another US company. Am I missing something?

Microsoft petitioned for and received a license to export software to Huawei for use in PCs. The U.S. government is clearly concerned about Huawei’s cellular networking-based activities, and the smartphone business got caught up in that. The PC was basically collateral damage during the overreach, but that’s been corrected.

Do you ever see a time when the phones are able to get the Play Store again?

At one time, yeah, I did. Now I’m not so sure. The anti-China/anti-Huawei policies of the U.S. government predated the previous administration, and they have continued since, and I didn’t expect that. I would like the U.S. government to be more transparent about what, if any, evidence it has against Huawei. And an explanation or justification of why these policies remain in place. But the damage has pretty much been done.

Do you miss trying out the latest Huawei phones?

I miss what they did with camera systems, for sure, though modern Apple, Google, and Samsung flagships are arguably good enough. (And the iPhone now supports Photographic Styles; the rich contrast styles kind of emulate the Huawei cameras’ HDR effects.)

Huawei’s hardware was decent overall, but their Android skin was terrible. I can’t imagine Huawei’s in-house Android replacement is any good.

Pets and Mexico

helix2301 asks:

Paul, on personal note what are you going to do with your pets when your in mexico once your settled in the apartment?

Two things are at play here. One, we’re not moving to Mexico, at least not anytime soon. And two, our pets are getting old and won’t be around forever. So in the short term, we’ll be visiting Mexico, and we have people locally who can feed the cats when we’re away, and we board the dog. We’re not ever going to bring them to Mexico.

Long term, we’ll see.