The Biggest Threat to Microsoft’s New Mobile Strategy? Ambivalence (Premium)

Now that the PC's role in personal computing is diminished, Microsoft's new focus on mobile devices makes sense. But the software giant will need to attract two audiences---developers and consumers---that have in recent years shown little interest in its offerings.

Developers, are I think, the more crucial of the two.

And Microsoft's history with developers is complex. On the one hand, it makes the best developer tools in the world. But on the other, Microsoft's promises about new markets over the past few decades have never really materialized. This has been especially true in the mobile first, cloud first age, where there are 500 million Windows 10 users, essentially, but very few engaged users who are actively browsing the Store and downloading new apps.

But this isn't a new problem. Even when PCs were at the center of the personal computing world, were in fact pretty much that entire world, businesses, as two-thirds of that audience, were never particularly interested in upgrading to new Windows versions, and the new capabilities they provided, in a timely fashion. This meant that Microsoft's functional pushes never benefited developers quickly, if at all. It just didn't pay to keep up with the leading edge.

Mobile and web changed that. In both cases, updates would happen immediately or nearly so, meaning that developers saw immediate results. So developers ran to these new markets, creating a virtuous cycle: It's been a win-win for users, as well, as they benefit from all the innovation occurring in new apps and services.

For developers, the issue isn't hostility, but ambivalence: They like Microsoft, respect what it's doing. But they have to go to where there are users and engagement. And that's been happening on mobile and on the web, not on PCs.

Microsoft's ambivalence among consumers is likewise understandable. Here, too, the company is well-regarded, but then so is IBM. The issue is simple: Microsoft is most successful in business, and increasingly in the cloud. And of all the device types in the personal computing world, PCs are by far the least personal. Where virtually everyone has a personal relationship with their smartphone, virtually no one has such a relationship with their PC.

They used to. But all of the truly personal activities we do each day don't usually happen on the PC anymore. Now, the PC is only for work. And work is boring.

So what's a poor software giant to do?

It's obvious only in retrospect, because the first hurdle we need to get over, which Microsoft has, is accepting that it's no longer at the center of our worlds. And it goes like this: If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Meaning that the way Microsoft can drive more excitement around the PC is to make the PC an essential part of customers' mobile experience. All you'll need is one PC, which most people still have, and if you stick with Microsoft, everything will be better. Not just on the PC, but on your devices too.

The issue...

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