Intel Vulnerabilities Play Right Into Microsoft’s Hands (Premium)

The revelations about Meltdown and Spectre are like a slow-moving train wreck that just keeps getting worse. And while we will be debating, and dealing with, the ramifications of these security issues for months if not years, I’m more interested in how Microsoft has managed to come out on the other side looking vindicated, and on a number of levels.

Trustworthy Computing

In 2002, Microsoft halted all major software development in order to reassess and then overhaul its processes in the wake of massive security vulnerabilities in Windows XP. The resulting transformation, called Trustworthy Computing, is a model for all platform makers to follow. And yet today, a decade and a half later, mobile platform makers like Apple and Google have yet to adopt the basic principles that Microsoft created, and then honed over the years.

Well, we clearly need a Trustworthy Computing initiative for CPUs, too. And while it may take years to evolve Intel (and competing CPUs) to be completely safe from these recently-discovered vulnerabilities, the time to start is now. If Intel really wishes to maintain its market position and not just disappear overnight, it should announce such an effort immediately. And in doing so, reassure its customers and partners.

Monoculture and monopoly

As I exclusively reported previously, Windows 10 on ARM—or, as Qualcomm prefers to call it, Windows 10 on Snapdragon—exists only because Microsoft was worried about Intel’s monopoly in PC microprocessors. AMD was “circling the drain,” I was told, and Intel was not moving quickly enough to adapt its PC processors to the mobile and always-connected scenarios that users demand today and will do so, even more, moving forward.

So Microsoft had to look elsewhere. And ARM was the obvious choice, given its experience with the platform, both in mobile devices and with Windows RT. Qualcomm, as the dominant ARM chipset supplier, was also the obvious choice, though Microsoft has said that it plans to bring Windows 10 to competing ARM platforms over time too.

Windows 10 and Windows as a Service

Microsoft has been pretty shrill about the need for its customers—individuals and businesses alike—to upgrade to Windows 10 in order to remain secure. The Windows 10 upgrade is interesting, and unlike any previous Windows upgrade, because what you’re really upgrading to is “Windows as a Service,” a means by which Microsoft keeps Windows 10 updated at the speed of an online service.

Well, customers have routinely told Microsoft that they are quite happy with their Windows 7 PCs, thank you very much. Many have even cited better performance as a reason, though I think the real reason, generally, is that people don’t replace things that still work well.

But we now know that older Windows versions running on older CPUs will perform even worse than will newer PCs running Windows 10 after all the Meltdown and Spectre patches are installed. And that makes Microsoft’s marketing message suddenly sound less shrill. Unexpectedly, Windows 10 really is better, and that’s true for both performance and security. Especially on the latest hardware.

Will this trigger a sudden new round of PC upgrades? It should. And the best news here is that this one-off upgrade cycle will benefit everyone in the industry. It’s a win-win.

Consider:

Intel will win because people and businesses will buy new PCs with new their latest CPUs. So will rival chipmakers like AMD and Qualcomm, of course.

PC makers will win because we suddenly have an answer to the reality that most people don’t need to upgrade their PCs all that often. Well, now they need to upgrade.

Microsoft will win thanks to all those Windows 10 sales. It will likely get to one billion Windows 10 devices much more quickly now, too.

And users will win, too, since Microsoft will finally realize its dream of moving the entire user base (basically) to the latest platform. (One astonishing fact in today’s Microsoft announcement is that the software currently supports 45 different editions of Windows across all versions and platforms. 45!) We’ll all be more secure because everyone is up-to-date. Today’s situation, with a mix of Windows 7, 8.x, and 10, is like letting non-vaccinated kids into schools; it’s just not safe, including for those who are protected.

It’s not just Microsoft

Microsoft isn’t the only winner here, of course.

AMD should be able to parlay these events into improved market and usage share, assuming, of course, there aren’t ugly revelations waiting in the wings there, too. But AMD is kind of hapless, in my opinion. And unlike with Microsoft, you can’t make the argument that AMD has been doing the right thing for years and that they are now vindicated. After years of, well, doing basically nothing, AMD only got competitive again this past year. I’m not convinced they have what it takes.

And Qualcomm’s offerings are looking better now too, aren’t they? Fears of a performance hit when running x86 code on ARM look a bit less painful when we’ll be taking a performance hit when running that same code on x86 chips too. Suddenly, the Qualcomm value proposition—better battery life, standby performance, and connectivity—has swung back in its favor. When you remove performance/compatibility from the equation, all bets are off.