Thinking About the Next Wave of Personal Computing (Premium)

During his Build 2017 keynote address, Microsoft's Terry Myerson referred to Mixed Reality as "the next wave" of computing. But I don't see it this way. And I'm not sure Microsoft does either.

That said, I don't begrudge Terry (or Microsoft more broadly) for this characterization. There's no doubt that Mixed Reality is "a" next wave of computing, an important milestone.
But when I think about computing waves, particularly in the personal computing space, which is what we're talking about here, there are waves ... and then there are waves. The PC was once the biggest wave, but it was recently outdone by smartphones or, more generally, mobile computing. And on that note, Microsoft should be credited for pushing Windows boldly into the mobile computing era with new innovations in Windows 10 and 2-in-1 PC form factors. Instead, the software giant is perhaps better known for its failure in smartphones. Two years ago, after a decade of work, Microsoft finally capitulated the smartphone market to Android and iPhone and began winding down that business.
That retreat is being completed as I write this, and in keeping with the plan that Microsoft outlined in 2015. Less well remembered, perhaps, was the promise that Microsoft made at that time: It would not miss the next wave of personal computing, we were told.
And yet, I feel like Microsoft has, in fact, already missed the next wave as well.
That wave---which I feel will eventually dwarf mobile computing in the same way that mobile computing out-performed the PC---is called ambient computing. And today, it is most clearly seen in home-based appliances like the Amazon Echo. But it will progress quickly, and to a Star Trek-like future in which we can walk around our homes, and eventually public spaces, and speak and otherwise indicate to unseen AI- and machine learning-backed sensors what it is that we need and want.
The obviousness of ambient computing, the sheer inevitability of it, is indisputable. That Amazon is the company that jumpstarted that wave is, alas, is a mystery.
Like Microsoft, Amazon completely failed in the smartphone space, though it only took one generation of attempted innovations for the online retailer to figure out the hopelessness of the situation.
But unlike Microsoft, Amazon never made any bold promises about not missing the next wave. Worse, and again, unlike Microsoft, Amazon simply took matters into its own hands and created that wave. Amazon. It boggles the mind.
Microsoft's lateness to this wave is not unprecedented, but then Google and Apple, the two companies that dominate mobile, are also late to this game. In late 2016, Google finally released its Home appliance in unfinished form, though it appears to be improving rapidly. Apple still hasn't released a Siri-powered appliance, though it is rumored to be prepping an announcement for next month. Microsoft, as you know, is finally readying its own partner ecosystem for Cortana-powered appliances which will...

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