Last month, IDC reported that it expected PC sales to fall by 8 percent in 2022. But now Gartner concurs, forecasting a 9.5 percent drop.
“A perfect storm of geopolitics upheaval, high inflation, currency fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions have lowered business and consumer demand for devices across the world and is set to impact the PC market the hardest in 2022,” Gartner senior director analyst Ranjit Atwal says. “Consumer PC demand is on pace to decline 13.1 percent in 2022 and will plummet much faster than business PC demand, which is expected to decline 7.2 percent year over year.”
I had been expecting a post-pandemic PC sales decline, though I wasn’t sure about the timing. But with both IDC and Gartner now weighing in, I guess that time is now. Interestingly, the reasons for this decline are more varied than just the pandemic (sort of) ending. And though both firms agree that consumer demand, supply chain issues, war, and inflation are part of the mix, each also credits some other factors. IDC, for example, also noted ongoing China lockdowns, while Gartner, as noted above, cites currency fluctuations.
IDC at least offered some hope, adding that it expects PC shipments to return to growth in 2023. But Gartner has issued no opinions about the PC market after 2022.
The one thing both firms do agree on, however, is that PC sales in 2022—about 316 million units, based on an average of the IDC and Gartner numbers—will still be above pre-pandemic levels: PC makers sold just 264 million units in 2019.