The PC market has now suffered from five straight years of decline, with PC sales hitting 265 million units for calendar year 2016.
In calendar year 2011, PC makers sold about 365 million PCs, so annual sales have contracted by almost 100 million units over those five years. Or by almost a third.
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The question, as ever, remains: How low will it go? That is, will the PC market simply continue declining, or does this level off at some point?
Let’s see what the analysts are saying.
Gartner notes a “stagnation” in the PC market, and a “fundamental change in PC buying behavior.”
“The broad PC market has been static as technology improvements have not been sufficient to drive real market growth,” Gartner’s Mikako Kitagawa says. “There have been innovative form factors like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth.”
IDC, for its part, says that commercial (e.g. business) demand for PCs is “stabilizing” and that the contraction of the consumer PC market has “slowed,” thanks to phone and tablet sales slowly or falling as well.
“The fourth quarter [2016] results reinforce our expectations for market stabilization, and even some recovery,” IDC’s Loren Loverde says. “The contraction in traditional PC shipments experienced over the past five years finally appears to be giving way as users move to update systems. We have a good opportunity for traditional PC growth in commercial markets, while the consumer segment should also improve as it feels less pressure from slowing phone and tablet markets.”
So there’s no agreement there. Gartner believes that the PC market will remain where it is, basically, while IDC sees room for modest growth in 2017. The good news? Neither of those is technically a decline, though of course reality has a way of catching up with these firms and their predictions. And it is perhaps notable that neither Gartner nor IDC elected to predict what PC sales will look like going forward.
That could still come. But my position, outlined a quarter ago in Health of Tech: The PC Industry, hasn’t changed: I expect the PC market to continue to contract over the long term, and the question isn’t whether that will happen, but rather at what speed it happens. Hopefully slowly.
5510
<p>LOL…I have stated this time and time again. Computing technology is always changing and evolving. PC’s are not declining and neither are tablets. Isn’t it obvious here? PC’s and tablets are converging. I said this before and I’ll say it again, but this time, differently. The most popular form of computing is mobile, which is the ability to take and control all your data with you. That’s why laptops are more popular than desktops, and why smartphones are more popular than laptops. From desktop computers, came the laptop. From smartphones came the tablet. Laptop and Tablets are clearly converging.</p>
<p>The questions is this: Which platform will come out on top? Windows or Android/iOS?</p>
<p>Isn’t this obvious? Back when version 1 of Surface/Surface Pro came out, it floundered in sales and usability, while the iPad continued to prosper. Like I mentioned (about a month ago), you can see evidence of the market forming for these 2-in-1 forming when some of the most popular accessories for iPad and Android tablets were covers with built in (bluetooth) keyboards. LOL…if this hard to believe, go to Amazon and search for one and see the number of reviewers who purchased these items. As time went on, the Surface Pros finally improved and then we get the iPad Pro, Pixel Cs, Chromebooks running Android, etc…</p>
<p>So if people are worrying about the health of the PC, stop it already. Like the Stages of Evolution, you can say Personal Computing technology is also evolving and worrying about the health of the (Windows) PC is ridiculous. Were we worried when the sale of CRT Monitors was fading? NO. There will always be a computing machine for all of us to play with. THAT, I can guarantee.</p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#35885">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Bats">Bats</a><a href="#35885">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>The primary purpose of a smartphone remains communication. The fact that smartphones sell better than laptops or PCs isn’t clear evidence that mobile is the most popular "form of computing". Laptops have been around a long time and aren’t really a fundamentally different platform than PCs. They have little in common with smartphones. </p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#35893">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#35893">:</a> What are the missing applications you would want to run on Win32? The fact is that most of what you’d want to do on a PC has been covered by applications for years, that’s why there aren’t many new Win32 applications. UWP has a few new features that have been purposely excluded from Win32 to boost UWP, but UWP is best considered a subset of Win32 functionality. Most of the non-communication-oriented apps on iOs and Android are just scaled-down alternatives to PC and Mac applications. </em></blockquote>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#35977">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#35977">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>Many Win32 applications haven’t been updated and many have, but that’s not really the issue. It’s really about capability, not specific apps. Although ARM chips are getting more powerful, that’s not the biggest problem with iOS and Android, it’s the form-factor. I think it’s safe to say that most Win32 users don’t really care about how well it works with touchscreens because touchscreens are the wrong interface device for the kinds of tasks one would want to perform on a PC. Touchscreens are great for gross selection or actions but our fingers are too big for fine work. </p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#36019">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#36019">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>You’re making assumptions about what I know or don’t know. MS has a very small niche of the PC market and sells only 2 in 1’s so naturally a touch-screen is a given for them. There are desktop monitors with touch and laptops without them. Most people don’t use a stylus on their tablet, phone, laptop or desktop although some people certainly do. A stylus is great for drawing or taking notes by hand but not very useful beyond that.</p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#36028">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#36028">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>Touch screen with stylus? That’s was the design approach for the Pocket PC. I know, I owned one. Didn’t really catch on. Overall Win32 and OSX are more capable than UWP, Android or iOS except in scenarios where high-mobility trumps functionality.</p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#37297">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/truerock">truerock</a><a href="#37297">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>While I think that a number of smartphone makers may eliminate an audio jack on certain models in the future, I’ll bet we’ll see audio jacks on some new models for years to come. Apple fans will pretty much accept whatever Apple decrees but other consumers are more interested in picking products that fulfill their individual needs.</p>
<p>Also you exaggerate Apple’s role in promoting new technologies. MS made non-flip phones years before the iPhone was created. </p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#38007">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/truerock">truerock</a><a href="#38007">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>Or one could say with as much validity that without Xerox, Apple users would still be running Apple 2’s OS. No company has a monopoly on innovation. </p>
<p>Backward compatibility has value no matter what the "new is always better" crowd thinks. Obviously the largest segment of the market has voted with it’s dollars against that philosophy. </p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#35937">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/CaedenV">CaedenV</a><a href="#35937">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>Perhaps you have too narrow a definition of "content creation". Preparing an email is passable on a phone but any writing more sophisticated than that is a hassle. And browsing on a phone remains a PIA for many websites. I don’t really get the excitement over "docked" scenarios which seem to just be a kludgy way to turn a tablet into a poor man’s laptop.</p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#35979">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Hoomgar">Hoomgar</a><a href="#35979">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>I think the definitions are well understood. With an overly-broad definition, a four-function calculator would qualify as a PC.</p>
8578
<p>In the history of PC sales 5 years is just a blip. It all depends on the interval chosen. According to the graphic PC sales have increased in the last 10 years. By my calculations the decrease in sales in the last 5 years is closer to 1/4 than 1/3.</p>
8578
<blockquote><em><a href="#36631">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/hrlngrv">hrlngrv</a><a href="#36631">:</a></em></blockquote>
<p>I don’t know if there’s been another 5-year decrease but I’m not sure it’s relevant anyway. 5 years represents about 15%, not a terribly significant percentage IMO.</p>