The PC Market Has Now Declined for Five Years

The PC Market Has Now Declined for Five Years

The PC market has now suffered from five straight years of decline, with PC sales hitting 265 million units for calendar year 2016.

In calendar year 2011, PC makers sold about 365 million PCs, so annual sales have contracted by almost 100 million units over those five years. Or by almost a third.

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The question, as ever, remains: How low will it go? That is, will the PC market simply continue declining, or does this level off at some point?

Let’s see what the analysts are saying.

Gartner notes a “stagnation” in the PC market, and a “fundamental change in PC buying behavior.”

“The broad PC market has been static as technology improvements have not been sufficient to drive real market growth,” Gartner’s Mikako Kitagawa says. “There have been innovative form factors like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth.”

IDC, for its part, says that commercial (e.g. business) demand for PCs is “stabilizing” and that the contraction of the consumer PC market has “slowed,” thanks to phone and tablet sales slowly or falling as well.

“The fourth quarter [2016] results reinforce our expectations for market stabilization, and even some recovery,” IDC’s Loren Loverde says. “The contraction in traditional PC shipments experienced over the past five years finally appears to be giving way as users move to update systems. We have a good opportunity for traditional PC growth in commercial markets, while the consumer segment should also improve as it feels less pressure from slowing phone and tablet markets.”

So there’s no agreement there. Gartner believes that the PC market will remain where it is, basically, while IDC sees room for modest growth in 2017. The good news? Neither of those is technically a decline, though of course reality has a way of catching up with these firms and their predictions. And it is perhaps notable that neither Gartner nor IDC elected to predict what PC sales will look like going forward.

That could still come. But my position, outlined a quarter ago in Health of Tech: The PC Industry, hasn’t changed: I expect the PC market to continue to contract over the long term, and the question isn’t whether that will happen, but rather at what speed it happens. Hopefully slowly.

 

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  • 442

    12 January, 2017 - 9:32 am

    <p>I expect decline for another 5 years.&nbsp; Why?&nbsp; Old school thinking was a new computer every 3 to 5 years.&nbsp; Now, people can expect a good system to last 5 to 10 years, maybe more.&nbsp; So for that 10 year cycle, we could easily see a 10 year long decline in sales.&nbsp; I think it should slow over those 5 years and finally level off, and only increase on availability of more consumers willing to purchase.</p>
    <p>Only thing that could change that is some disruptive PC innovation that pushes sales up again.&nbsp; I can’t see that short term, but who knows.</p>

    • 5234

      12 January, 2017 - 10:19 am

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35858">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Narg">Narg</a><a href="#35858">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>Sorry, but working in computer repair, I just don’t see your lifecycle estimates. &nbsp;Computers are still disposable after about 3 years. &nbsp;I see lots of Windows 8 machines that are just dead – especially laptops whose motherboards just don’t last. &nbsp;Some of these are high-end machines too. &nbsp;Even a few Mac machines which are about proportional to the usage of Mac vs. Windows PC’s. &nbsp;Drives are also failing inside what would be otherwise an extended warranty period, i.e. between 1 and 3 years old. &nbsp;People get really pissed off when they’re paying ~$200 for a drive replacement (which includes labour, I might add), especially if their backup isn’t up-to-date, if they even have one (there are still Luddites out there that don’t even know that they should have a backup because they don’t know how unreliable computers can be).</p>

      • 442

        12 January, 2017 - 10:33 am

        <blockquote><em><a href="#35868">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Waethorn">Waethorn</a><a href="#35868">:</a></em></blockquote>
        <p>Are you taking in the count of machines you don’t see or need repair?&nbsp; Probably not.&nbsp; Probably not taking in a lot of sources.&nbsp; Cheap computers will always need updating sooner rather than later.&nbsp; And, high end machines are known for "cooking" themselves to death.&nbsp; I too see machines only get about 3 years, but those are becoming fewer and fewer.&nbsp; I also recommend well built machines to people so they don’t have to update so often.&nbsp; In my 30+ years of IT, that’s starting to pay off more and more.</p>

      • 5349

        Premium Member
        12 January, 2017 - 11:48 am

        <blockquote><em><a href="#35868">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Waethorn">Waethorn</a><a href="#35868">:</a></em></blockquote>
        <p>I’m glad I’m the odd ball. 10 year old 17 inch Toshiba laptop running just fine on the insider fast ring.</p>

      • 1377

        Premium Member
        12 January, 2017 - 4:47 pm

        <p><em><a href="#35868">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Waethorn">Waethorn</a><a href="#35868">:</a></em></p>
        <p>Old laptops are rare because they’re often mishandled and their power connections are designed to break after a few years. OTOH, immobile machines which aren’t moved often but are cleaned regularly can last for several years as long as they can still run the desired software.</p>
        <p>That’s the big problem: since Windows Vista, there hasn’t been any new broadly appealing Win32 software for which people would have needed new PCs to run. That didn’t affect Vista because its sales were anemic, but it did affect Windows 7. There’s next to nothing on the Win32 side which requires Windows 8.x or 10 and can’t run under Windows 7. That also means that Modern/UWP apps matter so little to most PC users that they haven’t moderated the decrease in PC sales.</p>

  • 3309

    12 January, 2017 - 9:59 am

    <p>Some of the decline, I suspect, is that there is no compelling reason to upgrade.&nbsp; Programs that require more power is really in niche markets and the vast majority of people don’t need more power than a 5-7 computer can deliver.</p>
    <p>I’m running Windows 10 on a 7+ year old second hand machine and it works just fine (only one annoyance).&nbsp; The only time it shows its age is when I am using Visual Studio, but how many people are using Visual Studio?</p>
    <p>Meanwhile it is harder to justify getting a computer when you can use the desktop (laptop) computer for what it is good at, and the tablet for what it is good at, and have the best of both worlds.&nbsp; If the desktop were the ONLY computer, then when there are issues with performance it gets a higher priority than when I can swap out and see how it is on another device.</p>
    <p>Also, so much is going on in the cloud that the power required by a computer is very little.</p>
    <p>I remember reading (sorry, no source) that the tablet market sales has slowed to some degree.&nbsp; It hasn’t stagnated but the slowdown sounds like it’s coming to a point where a large portion of the population has their computer, and their tablet (and their phone) and don’t need anything more.</p>
    <p>I wouldn’t be surprised if one feature of desktops that helps to keep it alive for people is the overlooked piece we are using right now… the keyboard.&nbsp; Tablet keyboards are OK, and I could get used to using touch to navigate (some) but I suspect I am not alone in preferring a full laptop or desktop keyboard to bang the keys with.</p>
    <p>I predict that desktop sales may dip a bit more before leveling off.&nbsp; I also predict tablet sales will continue to rise but not at the same rate.</p>
    <p>Some things that I think could change the layout</p>
    <p>=&gt; Tablets sales (for Windows) could increase in sales if Microsoft can package that capability of running x86 software on ARM devices without any changes.&nbsp; Giving tablets the ability to run desktop apps gives a more compelling reason to get a tablet and shrinks the niche market that may prefer desktops.</p>
    <p>=&gt; Continuum isn’t going to make a big impact, not for a long time, but can eventually change the layout or bring in a new market to eat away at the other markets.&nbsp; This will be a fun one to watch.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>I still think the future (way future, like right before I die) will be your watch is your computer; you sit down and the KVM connects to your watch and displays the watch.&nbsp; You get up to go to the bathroom, step out of range and KVM auto-disconnects so don’t have to worry about anybody logging in while you are away.&nbsp; Pull out a laptop (in a meeting), desktop (at home or office), camera (while on vacation) or tablet (while on train or Uber) which all connects to do your computing but it’s all the same device and always with you.</p>
    <p>(you heard it here first) ;)</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

    • 6447

      12 January, 2017 - 4:31 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35863">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/hometoy">hometoy</a><a href="#35863">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>"but how many people are using Visual Studio"</p>
      <p>full applications like visual studio are exactly the sort of thing people are running windows for. Those who don’t need such applications are not using windows.</p>

  • 185

    Premium Member
    12 January, 2017 - 10:46 am

    <p>I am still seeing &nbsp;passengers carrying a tablet, phone, and laptop when traveling.&nbsp; They watch a movie on the tablet but switch to the PC to do work.&nbsp; Two years ago it would have been a phone and tablet. I expect the tablet to disappear and just be phone and a 2-in-1 laptop.&nbsp; It has to be that productivity is still important and a tablet just isn’t cutting it. So lets see how this turns out.</p>

    • 230

      Premium Member
      12 January, 2017 - 11:24 am

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35880">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/RonV42">RonV42</a><a href="#35880">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>I’ve noticed that too.&nbsp; Lots of folks that used to have an iPad (often a personal device) on a plain with a bt keyboard triaging e-mail.&nbsp; That seems to be going to the wayside, with people having a laptop with a proper keyboard out, and if they use the iPad at all, it’s to watch movies during the flight.</p>

  • 5510

    12 January, 2017 - 11:01 am

    <p>LOL…I have stated this time and time again. Computing technology is always changing and evolving. PC’s are not declining and neither are tablets. Isn’t it obvious here? PC’s and tablets are converging. I said this before and I’ll say it again, but this time, differently. The most popular form of computing is mobile, which is the ability to take and control all your data with you. That’s why laptops are more popular than desktops, and why smartphones are more popular than laptops. From desktop computers, came the laptop. From smartphones came the tablet. Laptop and Tablets are clearly converging.</p>
    <p>The questions is this: Which platform will come out on top? Windows or Android/iOS?</p>
    <p>Isn’t this obvious? Back when version 1 of Surface/Surface Pro came out, it floundered in sales and usability, while the iPad continued to prosper. Like I mentioned (about a month ago), you can see evidence of the market forming for these 2-in-1 forming when some of the most popular accessories for iPad and Android tablets were covers with built in (bluetooth) keyboards. LOL…if this hard to believe, go to Amazon and search for one and see the number of reviewers who purchased these items. As time went on, the Surface Pros finally improved and then we get the iPad Pro, Pixel Cs, Chromebooks running Android, etc…</p>
    <p>So if people are worrying about the health of the PC, stop it already. Like the Stages of Evolution, you can say Personal Computing technology is also evolving and worrying about the health of the (Windows) PC is ridiculous. Were we worried when the sale of CRT Monitors was fading? NO. There will always be a computing machine for all of us to play with. THAT, I can guarantee.</p>

    • 8578

      12 January, 2017 - 11:31 am

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35885">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Bats">Bats</a><a href="#35885">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>The primary purpose of a smartphone remains communication. The fact that smartphones sell better than laptops or PCs isn’t clear evidence that mobile is the most popular "form of computing". Laptops have been around a long time and aren’t really a fundamentally different platform than PCs. They have little in common with smartphones.&nbsp;</p>

    • 4949

      12 January, 2017 - 1:11 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35885">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Bats">Bats</a><a href="#35885">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>… except that the tablet market is worse off than the PC market… so, ya. &nbsp;Not the most sound theory as to where the PC sales are going.</p>
      <p>PC sales are declining because PCs last longer, so they are not replaced as often. &nbsp;That is about it. &nbsp;Even with that single fact alone I am amazed PC sales remain so relatively high.</p>

  • 5394

    12 January, 2017 - 11:25 am

    <p>What Microsoft is doing in the hardware space is not matching their software. They are selling 2 into 1 convertibles and tablets, but the software apps haven’t caught up. They are trying to move to ARM chips that run Win32 applications, but there’s no attempt to modernize Win32 to make it run better. No new Win32 applications&nbsp;since developers moved on to mobile. Win32 needs a modern interface and modern features.&nbsp;UWP apps are non-existent and mostly games that don’t run well on tablets. At least be more consistent in how they present their productivity applications and Skype on Windows. So the consumer is caught between a lackluster experience with Windows versus a more polished yet still incomplete iPad or Android experience. Will someone take my money?</p>

    • 8578

      12 January, 2017 - 2:05 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35893">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#35893">:</a>&nbsp;What are the missing applications you would want to run on Win32? The fact is that most of what you’d want to do on a PC has been covered by applications for years, that’s why there aren’t many new Win32 applications. UWP has a few new features that have been purposely excluded from Win32 to boost UWP, but UWP is best considered a subset of Win32 functionality. Most of the non-communication-oriented apps on iOs and Android are just scaled-down alternatives to PC and Mac applications. </em></blockquote>

      • 5394

        12 January, 2017 - 2:28 pm

        <blockquote><em><a href="#35965">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/skane2600">skane2600</a><a href="#35965">:</a></em></blockquote>
        <p>It is false to say every software that I need is already available. They clearly are not. Many Win32 applications haven’t been updated for years. This means photo, video, and music applications are outdated. People don’t stop using them, but this means they seek alternatives that are worse. You describe UWP as a subset. This means they are worse. While iOS and Android are scaled down, they aren’t necessarily less capable. In fact, they are getting more capable in each generation as iOS and Android scale up with more powerful ARM chips.</p>
        <p>Bring it full circle, Windows is stuck with Win32 indefinitely. It’s time to modernize it for the touch&nbsp;2 in 1 Surface devices. Win32 just doesn’t work well with touch screens. Not as responsive and the on-screen keyboard is often in the way and you can’t adjust for that. UWP is stillboard and often "Designed for Windows 10" which mean it is for desktop monitors and it just works terrible on touch tablets. There’s no suitable transition between the mobile and desktop.</p>

        • 8578

          12 January, 2017 - 2:47 pm

          <blockquote><em><a href="#35977">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#35977">:</a></em></blockquote>
          <p>Many Win32 applications haven’t been updated and&nbsp;many have, but that’s not really the issue. It’s really about capability, not specific apps. Although ARM chips are getting more powerful, that’s not the biggest problem with iOS and Android, it’s the form-factor. I think it’s safe to say that most Win32 users don’t really care about how well it works with touchscreens because touchscreens are the wrong interface device for the kinds of tasks one would want to perform on a PC. Touchscreens are great for gross selection or actions but our fingers are too big for fine work.&nbsp;</p>

          • 5394

            12 January, 2017 - 3:45 pm

            <blockquote><em><a href="#35983">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/skane2600">skane2600</a><a href="#35983">:</a></em></blockquote>
            <p>It’s not always a choice to select a touchscreen for many Windows laptops already have them. 2 in 1 convertibles have increased marketshare. Whatever you say about fat fingers, it doesn’t matter. There’s the stylus if you care to draw or take notes so you can avoid using a mouse. I’m surprised that you have no idea that Microsoft sells a digital stylus (Surface Pen).&nbsp;It still requires a touch screen. As more people expect to use such touch devices like the Surface dial and pens, they expect a touchscreen. What you’re saying is contrary to where the market is going. Microsoft only sells touchscreen Windows PCs. The only PCs that don’t have touch are the desktop PCs with regular monitors.&nbsp;Windows need to bridge the gap better or they will continue to lag the market.</p>

            • 8578

              12 January, 2017 - 4:08 pm

              <blockquote><em><a href="#36019">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#36019">:</a></em></blockquote>
              <p>You’re making assumptions about what I know or don’t know. MS has a very small niche of the PC market and sells only 2 in 1’s so naturally a touch-screen is a given for them. There are&nbsp;desktop monitors with touch and laptops without them. Most people don’t use a stylus on their tablet, phone, laptop or desktop although some people certainly do. A stylus is great for drawing or taking notes by hand but not very useful beyond that.</p>

              • 5394

                12 January, 2017 - 4:15 pm

                <blockquote><em><a href="#36022">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/skane2600">skane2600</a><a href="#36022">:</a></em></blockquote>
                <p>It’ll solve the fat finger problem. Stylus are useful for the intent that they’re made for. Do you want it to bake bread?</p>
                <p>I can see that you don’t really care whether Win32 works well or don’t. That’s what’s holding back PCs.</p>

                • 8578

                  12 January, 2017 - 5:48 pm

                  <blockquote><em><a href="#36028">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#36028">:</a></em></blockquote>
                  <p>Touch screen with stylus? That’s was the design approach for the Pocket PC. I know, I owned one. Didn’t really catch on. Overall Win32 and OSX are more capable than UWP, Android or iOS except in scenarios where high-mobility trumps functionality.</p>

    • 5496

      16 January, 2017 - 2:36 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35893">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#35893">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>Win32 or 64 aren’t going nowhere. You need it to run Windows. Lots of program run and depend on it. So it’s not going anywhere.</p>

    • 5629

      17 January, 2017 - 8:17 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35893">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/glenn8878">glenn8878</a><a href="#35893">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>The problem is that applications designed for touch screens (e.g. Windows 10 Mail) have completely different interface requirements for applications designed for keyboard and mouse (e.g. Microsoft Outlook 2016). &nbsp;Apparently you can’t have an app that is good at both – or, Apple would be trying to do it. &nbsp;But, Apple is on record as saying it can’t be done. &nbsp;Thus, Apple has one OS for keyboard and mouse and another OS for touch. &nbsp;IMO Apple knows what it is doing and Microsoft does not.</p>
      <p>Thus, it is fascinating to watch Apple experiment with things like the Touch Bar and iPad Pro.</p>
      <p>I just purchased 2 HP&nbsp;17t Y7C72AV Windows 10 notebook PCs. &nbsp;They are traditional Windows notebook PCs &nbsp;- but, they have touchscreens. &nbsp;It is interesting to see how this combination of interfaces compete.</p>
      <p>To me – the important point is… that I am grateful that Apple exists and is dragging the world into the future. &nbsp;Without Apple we would still be using flip-phones, mini-USB Type-A and USB 3.0. &nbsp;It’s so ridiculous to watch people bitch and moan about Apple removing the audio-jack when even an individual with any intelligence knows every manufacturer will be copying that initiative in 6 months. &nbsp;How is it possible people are so incredibly dense?</p>
      <p>So, yes… my main PC was built in 2012. &nbsp;I would love to upgrade to a better PC – but, there isn’t a better one to upgrade to. &nbsp;I’m hoping that perhaps in 2018 or 2019 it will be reasonable to upgrade my 2012 PC. &nbsp;Yet, over and over dim-witted individuals complain that Apple does not upgrade their PCs fast enough. &nbsp;Upgrade to what… a PC 5% better than one 2 years old? &nbsp;What would be the point? &nbsp;</p>

      • 8578

        18 January, 2017 - 9:51 am

        <blockquote><em><a href="#37297">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/truerock">truerock</a><a href="#37297">:</a></em></blockquote>
        <p>While I think that a number of smartphone makers may eliminate an audio jack on certain models in the future, I’ll bet we’ll see audio jacks on some new models for years to come. Apple fans will pretty much accept whatever Apple decrees but other consumers are more interested in picking products that fulfill their individual needs.</p>
        <p>Also you exaggerate Apple’s role in promoting new technologies. MS made non-flip phones years before the iPhone was created.&nbsp;</p>

        • 5629

          20 January, 2017 - 3:53 pm

          <blockquote><em><a href="#37437">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/skane2600">skane2600</a><a href="#37437">:</a></em></blockquote>
          <p>Sure, most individuals feel the way you express. &nbsp;But, for whatever reason… Apple is able to pull foot-dragging technological dinosaur consumers in to the future against their will… when no other manufacturer seems to be able to do so as effectively.</p>
          <p>It just blows me away when I see a discussion where consumers passionately argue how their 2017 PCs absolutely must have USB 2.0 ports. &nbsp;Thank god Apple ignores those customers. &nbsp;Apple’s new PCs do not have USB 2.0 ports. &nbsp;Apple’s new PCs do not have any type-A ports.</p>
          <p>I am so, so grateful Apple exists. &nbsp;I shudder to think what the current world would be like without Apple. &nbsp;I swear I think perhaps we would still be using Microsoft DOS.</p>
          <p>I can only suggest that proof of my thinking will be demonstrated at how rapidly audio ports die out as other manufacturers copy Apple – after 99% of technology pundits endlessly bitched and moaned about how that obsolete technology was an absolute requirement and that Apple did not know what it is doing. &nbsp;I can’t understand how universally dense people are in regard to innovation.</p>

          • 8578

            21 January, 2017 - 2:05 pm

            <blockquote><em><a href="#38007">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/truerock">truerock</a><a href="#38007">:</a></em></blockquote>
            <p>Or one could say with as much validity that without Xerox, Apple users would still be running Apple 2’s OS. No company has a monopoly on innovation. &nbsp;</p>
            <p>Backward compatibility has value no matter what the "new is always better" crowd thinks. Obviously the largest segment of the market has voted with it’s dollars against that philosophy.&nbsp;</p>

  • 289

    Premium Member
    12 January, 2017 - 12:28 pm

    <blockquote><em><a href="#35855">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/karma77police">karma77police</a><a href="#35855">:</a></em></blockquote>
    <p>Can you clarify this with some hypothetical numbers? &nbsp;So you’re saying <em>OEM</em> PCs may have declined by 19 million units from 2015 to 2016, but this decline was more than offset by an increase in <em>home-built</em> PCs? &nbsp;Really?</p>
    <p>In 2016, enthusiasts built 19MM more PCs than they did in 2015? &nbsp;That would mean home-built PCs would have accounted for <em>at least</em> 7% of all PCs created/sold last year &nbsp;That seems high. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

  • 4949

    12 January, 2017 - 1:09 pm

    <p>I personally don’t understand how PC sales have remained so stable. &nbsp;I mean,&nbsp;the whole issue at hand here is PC market saturation. &nbsp;The number of active devices continues to climb, even as sales slow down. &nbsp;And why? &nbsp;Because you don’t need to buy a new PC every 3-5 years anymore; It is more like 10-15. &nbsp;A midrange (read Core2Duo) 10 year old PC works just fine for mainstream workflows. &nbsp;Heck, even my 5 (nearly 6!) year old gaming rig just needs a new GPU every few years to keep up… and I would love to buy a new rig, but cant justify the performance gains for the money.</p>
    <p>And in the laptop world, devices last an easy 5 years now… provided you don’t trash your battery or drop your laptop. &nbsp;Gone are the days of the 2 year laptop. &nbsp;They don’t have legs quite as long as desktops, but they are plenty durable for most workflows.</p>
    <p>The thing I want to know is: why are PC sales still so high? By all rights PCs are the trucks of our day, and should really only be for content creators and gamers. &nbsp;Almost everyone else would be better off with a phone (which they already own, and that market is also slowing down), or a tablet of some sort (even if docked to a display and keybaord).</p>

    • 8578

      12 January, 2017 - 2:12 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35937">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/CaedenV">CaedenV</a><a href="#35937">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>Perhaps you have too narrow a definition of "content creation". Preparing an email is passable on a phone but any writing more sophisticated than that is a hassle. And browsing on a phone remains a PIA for many websites. I don’t really get the excitement over "docked" scenarios which seem to just be a kludgy way to turn a tablet into a poor man’s laptop.</p>

  • 5553

    12 January, 2017 - 1:34 pm

    <p>And us PC users couldn’t care less.</p>
    <p>WinVidiaTel 4 life !</p>

  • 5553

    12 January, 2017 - 1:37 pm

    <p>With WOA PC will be back…with new form factors and portability.</p>
    <p>WOA will change what a PC is.</p>

    • 6447

      12 January, 2017 - 4:11 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35957">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Joe_Blo">Joe_Blo</a><a href="#35957">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>smartphones and tablets&nbsp;and smartwatches already happened, the &nbsp;"new form factors and portabilty" you speak of. It didn’t take windows running on ARM to accomplish that. Windows is about professional desktop computing and I’m not sure how much of that you can do on small portable form factors, when you get beyond the novelty.</p>
      <p>I still question the latest form factor "innovations" – the hybrid /360 degree hinge tent/tablet mode laptop, or detachable screens (regardless of what OS). All the detachable screen did was make surface book a compromised laptop.&nbsp;</p>

    • 1377

      Premium Member
      15 January, 2017 - 11:21 pm

      <p><em><a href="#35957">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Joe_Blo">Joe_Blo</a><a href="#35957">:</a></em></p>
      <p>Remains to be seen what batterly life will be for Windows on ARM PCs running Win32 desktop software via Intel/AMD emulation. Unlikely it’ll match the same batteries and chips running Android apps.</p>

  • 5553

    12 January, 2017 - 1:42 pm

    <p>A PC can last 7 years or more with upgrades…mine did.</p>
    <p>Phones are throw away devices people change like underwear &nbsp;</p>
    <p>Cant really compare the two.</p>

    • 1377

      Premium Member
      15 January, 2017 - 11:18 pm

      <p><em><a href="#35958">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Joe_Blo">Joe_Blo</a><a href="#35958">:</a></em></p>
      <p>They can last longer than that. I have a 12-year-old ex-gaming PC (formerly my son’s) with just 1GB RAM which I still use because it has 2 things which I depend on for a few more years: a 3.5" floppy drive and a parallel port.</p>

  • 5553

    12 January, 2017 - 1:46 pm

    <p>PC…Turbodiesel 4×4 2500 truck&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Smartphone…Yugo</p>
    <p>Both will get you there but the PC can do a lot more.</p>

    • 1377

      Premium Member
      12 January, 2017 - 4:56 pm

      <p><em><a href="#35959">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Joe_Blo">Joe_Blo</a><a href="#35959">:</a></em></p>
      <p>The Yugo is easier to park.</p>

  • 125

    Premium Member
    12 January, 2017 - 1:55 pm

    <p>The traditional PC is dead.&nbsp;Other than high-end gaming rigs, many of us can get by with just a smartphone.&nbsp; This will become even more pronounced as wireless connections to display devices become more ubiquitous.&nbsp;A swoosh of the hand over your smartphone transfers display to another screen. I still recall the scene in Avatar when one of the tech’s grabbed a screen and transferred it to a portable display device with a wave of his hand&nbsp;- it was at that time that it dawned on me that&nbsp;PC’s as we knew them may never be the same.</p>
    <p>This will also be accelerated by expansion of computing in the cloud – I see a&nbsp;day in the not to distant future where my&nbsp;personal computer is not in my house at all – but out in the cloud – waiting for me to call it up on whatever display or device may be handy at the time. Not to mention the BOTS out there that may be doing tasks for me.</p>
    <p>The trend will&nbsp;continue.</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

    • 8834

      12 January, 2017 - 3:13 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35962">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/jrswarr">jrswarr</a><a href="#35962">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>Heh, I always get a kick out of people who say things like "The PC is dead!" ….. because IBM CEO Lou Gerstner said that the PC era was over in 1998, and how correct did he turn out to be?</p>
      <p><a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/ibm-the-pc-is-dead/">https://www.cnet.com/news/ibm-the-pc-is-dead/</a></p&gt;
      <p>&nbsp;</p>

      • 125

        Premium Member
        13 January, 2017 - 12:01 pm

        <blockquote><em><a href="#36010">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/warren">warren</a><a href="#36010">:</a></em></blockquote>
        <p>The <em>traditional home </em>PC is dead. Emphasis on traditional. I am reasonably sure the days of having a dedicated box sitting under a desk&nbsp;are coming to an end. I still have two myself – but given the right mobile hardware and OS I could very easily carry that same power around in my pocket and really work anywhere.&nbsp;</p>

  • 8340

    12 January, 2017 - 2:34 pm

    <p>I know it sounds nit-picky but really the PC market continues to explode year over year.&nbsp; PC stands for "Personal Computer".&nbsp; It’s just we carry them in our pockets now.&nbsp; What the article is really talking about is the decline in sales of "Desktop Computers" and of course it would given the previous.&nbsp; Isn’t this all kind of a moot point?</p>

    • 6447

      12 January, 2017 - 3:56 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35979">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Hoomgar">Hoomgar</a><a href="#35979">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <blockquote><em>What you say is true but, PC sales are more interesting from the perspective of how well windows is doing. We know it&nbsp;has no presence in smartphones so that’s why its not a moot point from&nbsp;that perspective.</em></blockquote>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>

    • 8578

      12 January, 2017 - 4:11 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#35979">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/Hoomgar">Hoomgar</a><a href="#35979">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>I think the definitions are well understood. With an overly-broad definition, a four-function calculator would qualify as a PC.</p>

  • 5615

    12 January, 2017 - 2:48 pm

    <p>For what it’s worth, and I realize this is a sample size of n=1, neither I nor my&nbsp;business bought a single PC in 2016. We didn’t need to. As others have said, most PCs less than 6 or 7 years old are still adequate enough for typical home and office (with a small "o") work and, unless they die, there’s no reason to get a new one.</p>
    <p>As I sit here, I’m looking at a 6-year old spare desktop PC sitting on my desk (not the one I’m using at the moment) with a dual-core AMD Athlon-class CPU that is perfectly usable with Windows 10, even for watching HD video and doing fairly rigorous number-crunching (although, that beast definitely uses more juice than four of our newer fanless jobs combined).&nbsp;</p>

  • 5462

    12 January, 2017 - 3:07 pm

    <p>My last PC lasted 6 and a half years as my main rig (Q9450). It is now my stereo. My "new" system was put together with used parts (I7-3770K). I’m not itching to upgrade.</p>

  • 5553

    12 January, 2017 - 5:45 pm

    <p>Let me know when a smartphone can game A+ titles at 1440p &gt;60 fps with all settings maxed.??</p>

  • 7063

    12 January, 2017 - 7:05 pm

    <p>Well there is such a thing as market saturation. You can’t expect any market to see sales climb forever. Otherwise you’d eventually have to take it to an extreme and have every human on the planet buying a new computer every year&nbsp;(or even every month or every day). The question is where will it stabilize. I mean 1/4 billion PCs a year is still pretty good I think.</p>

  • 8578

    12 January, 2017 - 8:22 pm

    <p>In the history of PC sales 5 years is just a blip. It all depends on the interval chosen. According to the graphic PC sales have increased in the last 10 years. By my calculations the decrease in sales in the last 5 years is closer to 1/4 than 1/3.</p>

    • 1377

      Premium Member
      15 January, 2017 - 11:14 pm

      <p><em><a href="#36070">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/skane2600">skane2600</a><a href="#36070">:</a></em></p>
      <p>Name another 5-year period which has shown year-on-year decreases in annual PC sales.</p>
      <p>The last 5 years have been quite unusual. And even if you start the PC era in the mid 1970s rather than early 1980s, 5 years is 1/8 or more of the whole era, so not really an easily dismissed blip.</p>

      • 8578

        16 January, 2017 - 1:19 pm

        <blockquote><em><a href="#36631">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/hrlngrv">hrlngrv</a><a href="#36631">:</a></em></blockquote>
        <p>I don’t know if there’s been another 5-year decrease but I’m not sure it’s relevant anyway. &nbsp;5 years represents about 15%, not a terribly significant percentage IMO.</p>

        • 1377

          Premium Member
          18 January, 2017 - 7:43 pm

          <p><em><a href="#36778">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/skane2600">skane2600</a><a href="#36778">:</a></em></p>
          <p>Except that it’s the LATEST 15% and unprecedented.</p>
          <p>Not that it means much (maybe even a counterindication), but Gartner is predicting no growth in devices (PCs, tablets and phones) through 2018.</p>

  • 191

    Premium Member
    13 January, 2017 - 11:34 am

    <p>Just being nitpicky, Paul, but your representation of the five-year decline at almost a third should be more like a little over a quarter.&nbsp; 100/365 = 0.274</p>
    <p>Even so, it’s a major decline that is continuing, there’s no denying it.</p>

  • 5724

    15 January, 2017 - 8:12 am

    <p>So your desktop OS continues a downward trend. Your browser continues a downward trend. Your global smartphone market share is nearly non-existent. It’s going to take you three years to do a Surface Phone. And you’ll have zero products in the $100, $200 and $300 categories. Brilliant, MS, just brilliant! Azure or bust, that’s for sure.</p>

    • 1377

      Premium Member
      15 January, 2017 - 11:06 pm

      <p><em><a href="#36509">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/worleyeoe">worleyeoe</a><a href="#36509">:</a></em></p>
      <p>MSFT is IBM 2.0 plus a gaming division.</p>
      <p>To date have there been any financial reports which show the profitability of the Surface line on a net income basis rather than just a gross margin basis? Lots of MSFT fans want to believe the Surface line is profitable, but is it? If it isn’t, it’s hard to believe MSFT would make it a long term commitment.</p>

  • 6171

    16 January, 2017 - 1:39 pm

    <p>Still the number is far, far greater than both Sony and Microsoft consoles sell in a year…it’s about 12x higher even at a low ebb.&nbsp; The same people have been counting PCs out since win8 for some stupefying reasons that cannot be rationally explained…because it wasn’t the PC that died–it was Windows 8 and the Metro-only GUI…;)&nbsp; That is dead as a door nail.&nbsp; And buried.</p>
    <p>Now that AMD is back in the competitive game with CPUs and blazing new trails with GPUs–there simply is no better value going for computer technology than *desktop* PCs.&nbsp; It’s a real shame that people are getting burned so badly with laptops in the beginning before understanding how superior the PC desktop form factor is.&nbsp; Mobility/wireless is highly, highly overrated, imo.&nbsp; It’s also a far more expensive proposition–much, much less bang-for-the-buck for the knowledgeable consumer who isn’t afraid of "Just saying ‘No!’" to mobile marketing departments seeking to lead them around by the nose in order to enjoy vastly increased profits while delivering vastly reduced goods and services to the computing consumer.</p>
    <p>Mobile today is quite the sucker’s game–always has been really. And of course, cell phones don’t even rate on the scale, etc.</p>

  • 5496

    16 January, 2017 - 2:29 pm

    <p>Because people don’t buy a new PC every year. People are you and Leo, who buys one every couple months. We have a PC that works and is plenty fast for them, so their’s no reason to upgrade.</p>

  • 514

    16 January, 2017 - 3:03 pm

    <p>I wonder if we’re not focusing too much on device classifications that don’t have much relevance anymore.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Processors are getting smaller and more powerful giving rise to all kinds of new form factors, and use cases.&nbsp; Rather than focusing on "PC’s", I think we should broaden the measurement category to include all devices involved in personal and corporate use cases.&nbsp; That means we need to focus not just on desktop and laptop PC’s, but all form factors including smartphones, tablets 2-in-1’s, IOT devices, and new "smart room" devices that include far field microphones such as the Amazon Echo, Google Home, or any device that talks to an Alexa/Cortana/etc. back end.</p>
    <p>The health of the tech manufacturing sector is going to increasingly focus on those UX scenarios that enable the biggest productivity bang-for-buck for least amount of end user UX complexity.&nbsp; The game moves from the classic PC to Smartphones (especially those with continuum-like capabilities), Intelligent "assistants" like Alexa, wearables, and IOT devices.&nbsp; Performance/size aspects are not (IMO) quite there yet for wearables, but they will come.</p>
    <p>Right now I think the game is shaping up between smart devices that you carry with you versus "smart room" devices like the Echo that are available to all who walk into an Alexa-enabled&nbsp;room.</p>
    <p>Since this is a Windows-focused site (:grin), I would be remiss if I did not mention that Microsoft’s design intent for Windows 10 that it run on all form factors, and support all UX use cases.</p>

    • 4964

      16 January, 2017 - 9:25 pm

      <blockquote><em><a href="#36796">In reply to </a><a href="../../users/edboyhan">edboyhan</a><a href="#36796">:</a></em></blockquote>
      <p>Agree. Is a Surface Pro a PC, a tablet or both by their judgment?</p>

  • 5724

    19 January, 2017 - 9:47 pm

    <p>Good luck, MS! The future is mobile and your mobile phone OS is dead. You killed it when you chose to ditch the Lumia line and not replace it with anything. If a SP is released, it’s too bad you’re unlikely to take a wide breadth of products approach as Samsung does its Galaxy line. You could have launched a line of SPs last summer. They wouldn’t of had to been revolutionary. That could have been saved for v2.0 launch. It’s sad to think that no U.S. carrier is likely to launch a W10M phone in 2017. If they do, it’s likely to be the same old high-end phone that costs way too much, hyped for business that no one is going to buy.</p>

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