Ask Paul: December 2 (Premium)

Happy Friday! After a busy holiday week, Ask Paul is back and this is another mammoth installment with some great reader questions. And quick a book update...
Update on the Windows 11 Field Guide eBook
I wanted to update you all on Premium members getting a free copy of the Windows 11 Field Guide through Leanpub: you should be receiving an email sometime in the next week with a code that will let you get the book for $0. I believe you will need to create a Leanpub account, which is free, to do so, so you might want to look into that now. I’ll write a formal post when this goes live.

Thanks!
The next wave
brothernod asks:

Microsoft seems to come out ahead of the next big thing then abandon it without becoming the next big thing. Tablets, AR and windows phone come to mind.

Yep. Terry Myerson used to call this the “next wave.” In his view, Microsoft had missed the smartphone wave, and despite being pretty quick to market with Cortana, had missed the intelligent assistant/voice control wave too. So it was intent on not missing the next wave, whatever that might have been/will be. Augmented Reality (AR) was a possibility. Maybe still is, in some people’s view. (I see AR like I see assistant/voice, as more of an add-on than a replacement. Actually, tablets are kind of like that too.)

And I’m curious, is there a world where Microsoft could have become a pillar in the smart phone space, or was it a forgone conclusion that only 2 phone platforms could survive. What do you think Microsoft could have done (with hindsight) to be an equal to iOS or android.

Well, since I’m quoting former Microsoft executives, I’ll point out that Stephen Elop, then the CEO of Nokia, asked the same question publicly: is there room for a third ecosystem in the smartphone market? History says there is not. And the list of failures there extends far beyond Nokia to include Palm, Motorola, Symbian, Amazon, Facebook, and probably many others.

But Microsoft (with Nokia) made, I think, the strongest case for a third ecosystem. But the problems were many. Windows Phone came to life in a world in which Microsoft’s executives couldn’t get past licensing fees and so it initially refused to give it away, as Google (sort of) does with Android, killing its chances with hardware makers. It innovated with a “people-first” user experience that put photos, games, videos, messages, and other content types above the popular brands that dominate those markets, ensuring that none would ever buy-in, making the platform unattractive to users. (Yes, Facebook gave it a shot briefly, but in the end, Facebook wants you to think “Facebook” when you post photos, for example, not think about a Photos hub on Windows Phone.) And it was late to market: by the time Windows Phone hobbled into the market in an unfinished state in 2011, its innovations were no match for its limitations compared to the market leaders.

Put another way, this was a market Micr...