From the Editor’s Desk: Hype (Premium)

I distinctly remember the story that caused me to buy into the hype around 5G, though I don’t recall which industry player was responsible or how or when this was communicated: you’d be standing in line waiting to check in for a flight when you suddenly realized that you had forgotten to download any TV shows or movies to watch in the air. No problem! Thanks to the magic of 5G, you could open whatever app you use for such things, tap the screen a few times, and that content would download before you even stepped onto the plane.

As a frequent traveler, this scenario resonated with me. Making sure I have content downloaded to my devices, most of which I will never need or access, is one of the many pre-flight tasks I subject myself to. And I’m compulsive enough that I’ve never found myself on a flight with nothing to listen to or watch. But whatever. I know that not everyone is prepared as me, and I could see this nearly instant downloading ability as the godsend that it was.

Except, of course, that it was a complete fantasy. Years after 5G launched nationwide and worldwide, it hasn’t materially changed anything as far as I can tell. Indeed, one of the most popular smartphone tips of the past few years has been to disable 5G access to achieve better connectivity speeds. 4G/LTE, that also-ran, apparently still works fine, thank you very much. In some areas, it’s still faster than 5G.

And since there’s no information quite like anecdotal information, I decided to test my connectivity speeds in what is admittedly a low-bar area for my carrier, T-Mobile. With 5G “UC” enabled—this is the best kind of 5G that T-Mobile offers, I’m told—my download speed is 13.6 Mbps, but it jumped to 21.4 Mbps when I disabled 5G and switched to LTE.

That one number is higher than the other is obvious. That neither speed will download a movie in an acceptable time frame should also be obvious: in fact, I could probably watch that movie more quickly than it would take to download. So much for that instant movie download fiction.

Granted, I wasn’t the only one who fell for the hype. When Verizon rolled out 5G, one of that carrier’s key advantages was a technology called mmWave that would offer the super-speed, low-latency downloads we were originally promised. The issues with mmWave, however, are multifold, the biggest, perhaps, being that it requires line of sight with a cell tower, making it unavailable in cities with lots of tall buildings. As it turns out, mmWave can’t penetrate walls and other surfaces.

So it was with some amusement as I saw reports coming in from various reporters, bloggers, and YouTubers, all of whom converged on the same park outside of New York City so they could try and replicate the promised instant movie download. Maybe we should all head there before our next flight. Or just be prepared and use Wi-Fi like normal people.

Three years later, 5G is … whatever. It works fine, I guess. I don’t really think about it. And I am absolutely not sure it’s any better than 4G/LTE, at least where I live. What I’m more interested in is why I even believed this nonsense to begin with. After all, this isn’t the only obvious example of hype failing to live up to its promises in our industry. It’s just one of many, and with 30-ish years of experience, it’s curious that I’m not immune to it. Maybe I just want to believe.

There are classic examples of unfulfilled hype like the so-called paperless office from decades ago. But looking at more recent hype cycles, I can easily point out such things as cryptocurrency and AR/VR/XR (or whatever we’re calling it this week). And it’s only natural to wonder whether AI (artificial intelligence) falls into this category too.

I bet it does.

Don’t get me wrong: AI will trigger a productivity boost the like of which we haven’t seen since the advent of personal computing. But the darkest fears about AI already seem overblown just months into this hype cycle, as do the most fervent predictions about its more positive impacts. And the more I talk to people about AI and how they are or might use it, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion: AI is like any new technology in that it will bring some advances and some setbacks, and its most likely net impact will be positive, not negative.

I’ve likened AI to monosodium glutamate (MSG), the unfairly maligned flavor enhancer that expands on the capabilities of salt by adding a unique umami sensation that makes eating more enjoyable. That is, it takes what’s there and it makes it better. And while I’m sure MSG, like salt, caused a sensation when it was first invented or discovered, I can’t imagine anyone was worried that it would lead to the end of the human race. I guess even hype evolves.

But is AI as radical a change as the hybrid work shift we’ve experienced in the wake of the pandemic? That is, when we look back 10 years from now, which of these things will have triggered more change? Honestly, I think hybrid work is the more profound change. And that it will take many, many years before we fully understand just how big a deal that is.

So, sure. AI will help you create a letter or a PowerPoint presentation more easily. But the fact that you’ll be doing that work from your home office, or by a lake somewhere, or at a café in some international destination, is surely the more interesting and impactful change.

So where’s the hype around hybrid work? It doesn’t exist because this isn’t a product or service that Big Tech can sell us. And maybe that’s the real secret here. Hype is always an upgrade, something that arrives with a price tag. But hybrid work is just about improving your quality of life. And when you think about it, that’s priceless.