The Way Forward? (Premium)

Bear with me as I continue processing this past week's news and its ramifications for the future of Windows. Today, I'd like to stop worrying about what happened and think about what things might look like going forward.

Microsoft will continue investing in Windows 10, of course. There is a sizable audience there, and it's not going away anytime soon, if ever.

Let's discuss that audience.

As most people know, the Windows user base is largely made up of business customers. I estimate that about two-thirds of the total user base is business-related.

For this and other reasons, some fear that Microsoft will "abandon" consumers. I've been told repeatedly by company executives that this will never happen, that there are important synergies the individuals who use Windows and the businesses that license it.

But I wonder if the desire to serve a consumer audience isn't some vestigial leftover from the days when Windows was all things to all people, and all Microsoft had to do was show up to dominate a market. The Satya Nadella-led transformation that's currently underway at Microsoft has led to the unthinkable---Windows, for the first time in the firm's history, is no longer led by anyone who reports directly to the CEO---so why can't this mentality change?

There's no way to accurately predict the future. But given that Microsoft today believes it can still make a difference in consumer and that its core strength, arguably, is productivity, it's reasonable to consider how the company can serve both businesses and consumers going forward. And what role Windows might play.

It's likely, then, that Microsoft will step back from the consumerization of Windows---which is mostly nonsense features and terrible attempts at monetizing the product via advertising---and focus instead on productivity. This is a laudable goal, as it serves the needs of its core customer base (businesses) while staying true to how most individuals use the product: To get work done.

Windows 10's integration with smartphones and other mobile devices is another likely area of increased investment going forward. After all, the Windows user base uses smartphones much more than their PCs. Those phones are more personal and are with them all the time. And they are more engaged when using those phones than they are when using the PC. This is an area where Microsoft might make a difference.

It makes sense. By integrating Windows 10 with smartphones, Microsoft makes both devices better. More to the point, doing so makes the PC more relevant in an era in which it is otherwise fading. You can begin a task on the phone and continue it later on your PC, with its bigger screen, keyboard, and mouse. (I assume the reverse will be implemented in the near future as well, though those who work on Office documents stored in Office 365/OneDrive have basic "continue on phone" features today.)

I like this positioning: PCs are for doers, after all. But there are challenges...