Will Windows 7’s Exit Trigger a Windows 10 Upgrade Wave? (Premium)

As you must know, Windows 7 will finally reach the end of its support lifecycle one year from now, on January 14, 2020. Yes, Microsoft will offer expensive paid support past that date for the biggest businesses. But Windows 7 usage is fairly ubiquitous with individuals and smaller businesses that will never even be offered additional support. So the theory here is that Windows 7’s exit will result in a massive wave of upgrades, with customers of all kinds buying new Windows 10 PCs.

That could happen. But it’s far more likely that the ensuing upgrade “wave” will be quite small, and much smaller than previous upgrade waves. It’s even alarmingly possible that Windows 7’s exit will have little to no positive impact on the PC market at all.

I know. That sounds awfully negative. There’s just one problem: It happened before.

Windows XP was finally put out of its misery in April 2014, 12 long years after the platform was first made available to customers. That’s two years longer than the typical Windows support lifecycle, but Windows XP’s ubiquity ensured that users of all kinds stuck with the system for years after support officially ended. And Microsoft was forced more than once---including an infamous hacking episode with UK-based hospitals---to keep patching XP for many years after that date.

I’m sure Microsoft intends to be more resolute this time around. But the Windows 7 support retirement comes at an even more precarious time for Windows and PCs. And it’s important to understand how this event if both different and similar to Windows XP’s early support end.

First of all, the Windows 7 installed base is massive, and is much bigger than was XP’s installed base as that system cruised toward retirement: With 41 percent usage share, there are approximately 615 million PCs out in the world running Windows 7 today. And those individuals and businesses that still run Windows 7 today do so for a very good reason: It just works, and they see no reason to spend money on a new PC when the one they’re using is fine. (This runs contrary to the thinking of most enthusiasts, but it’s important for us to collectively understand the most of the user base views Windows as a tool that is otherwise not central to their lives.)

That fact, coupled with Microsoft’s early promise to continue supporting Windows 7 in big businesses, suggests that this upgrade cycle will be as impactful, or less so, than was the case when Windows XP retired. Which leads to the question: What was the impact of Windows XP's retirements on PC sales?

Surprise: It was a non-event. PC sales fell that year by 1 percent.

As I just reported, PC sales have now fallen for seven consecutive years. The best-ever year for PC sales occurred in 2011, when PC makers collectively sold 365.4 million units to customers. Windows XP was finally retired in 2014, and if you look at PC sales that year---compared to PC sales during the years right before...