Three Years (Premium)

Steven Sinofsky once observed that three years is “about right” for each release of Windows. He may have been onto something if a new rumor is true: after a strange seven years of indeterminate updating, Microsoft appears to be moving back to the three-year release model again. Sort of.

It used to be so easy. Microsoft would release a major Windows version every three years, support it for ten years, with five years of mainstream support and five years of extended support. And despite its antitrust and Longhorn troubles, the software giant pretty much held to that schedule in the 21st century with Windows XP (2001), Windows XP with Service Pack 2 (SP2, 2004), Windows Vista (2006/2007), Windows 7 (2009), and Windows 8 (2012).

Of course, the world also changed in this time. Mobile systems like iPhone and Android displaced Windows as the mainstream personal computing platform, triggering some overreactions that we’re still dealing with today and, perhaps tellingly, the new rumored updated schedule does not correct. And while the web is an even bigger platform than mobile, it’s biggest benefit—the ability to update a service, site, or app once, in the cloud, and not require client-side updates—is somewhat offset by its ongoing limitations and the inability of mobile and desktop platform makers to successfully emulate it.

They tried. Microsoft’s reaction to these then-emerging competitors was to fire our friend Mr. Sinofsky and engage in a series of “rapid releases” that started with Windows 8.1 in 2013 and continue to this day. Microsoft shipped two more updates to Windows 8 and then Windows 10 in 2015, and that team’s original goal was to deliver three so-called feature updates—actually, major version upgrades—every year. They quickly toned that down to two per year, pleasing no one, but it is not coincidental that this team was previously responsible only for Windows Phone. Microsoft was trying to apply its learnings in mobile to the desktop.

It failed miserably. Windows as a Service (WaaS), as this initiative was called, proved only that updating a legacy desktop platform as if it were an online service was an unreliable mess and that, even if it were possible, it would be disruptive for customers. Microsoft didn’t care: over the intervening years, it has only accelerated the ways it can, and the schedule by which it will, update Windows.

By the time we got to Windows 11, we were fed the biggest lie of all: Microsoft has heard your concerns, we were told, and it will only issue one feature update—again, a major version upgrade—every year. But by this point, the shackles were off, and you can forget about all that messaging around A, B, C, and D updates every month: Microsoft can, will, and has updated Windows 10 and 11 arbitrarily and without warning at any time it pleases. It can update/upgrade the operating system at will. And does. That feature update schedule is meaningless.

What’s odd about all this, to me, is why Microsoft even bothers. Windows isn’t something that needs to be updated all that often, at least in general. But Microsoft addressed that uncomfortable reality by throwing a wrench into the works: it shipped a horribly incomplete Windows 11 in 2021 with a new user interface, incredible functional regressions, and bogus hardware requirements. See? Now Windows does need to be updated a lot. Microsoft did it again.

With all this in mind, this new rumor, from the credible Zac Bowden, is intriguing. It suggests that Microsoft now believes, as it did in the sad “Creator Update” days of Windows 10, that what this platform really needs is more major updating more often. That this mature legacy platform still needs to be shaken up for some reason. They will never learn.

While old-timers may smile at the thought that Microsoft might return Windows to a “traditional three-year recycle,” it’s important to put that in the context of the changes I noted above. Microsoft is not returning to a 10-year support schedule, during which it will update the OS only during its first five years of mainstream support, and then only fleetingly, if history were a guide. Remember: the point here is that Microsoft can update Windows at any time. And that they have. And will continue to do so.

And Bowden, sadly, confirms those plans: Microsoft will actually increase “the output of new features shipping to the current version of Windows on the market. Starting with Windows 11 version 22H2, Microsoft is kicking off a new ‘Moments’ engineering effort which is designed to allow the company to rollout new features and experiences at key points throughout the year, outside of major OS releases. I hear the company intends to ship new features to the in-market version of Windows every few months, up to four times a year, starting in 2023.”

Yeah. We’re all going to have a moment when that starts happening.