Ask Paul: February 17 (Premium)

Happy Friday! We have a busy weekend coming up with our house going on the market, but first, here’s a great set of reader questions to keep my mind off that.

Yin vs. yang

will asks:

Yin vs Yang.  It seems over the past couple of years Microsoft is doing both good and bad, but they never seem to excel much.  There are some recent examples of this such as the Bing AI post you did on how dark this new improved AI is supposed to help us but can lead down some very dark holes.  The other is Windows 11 with an updated UI, yet with the inclusion of more ads and data being collected.  Another is Edge becoming a good browser that works well on almost everything but includes so much junk/add-ons the basic browser is lost.  Or how about how my premium version Outlook.com email gets several spam mails in my inbox daily, yet the same platform that powers O356 business users can block pretty much everything?

Ah boy. It’s like you’re scratching at a scab that I’m desperately trying to avoid to preserve my sanity. Where to start?

I guess there are two forces at work here.

The first is the broader strategic shift at Microsoft, which has been promoting its cloud computing efforts over all else because that has driven the stock price to stratospheric levels. And it’s not just public posturing: we’ve discussed before how Terry Myerson was given the horrible task of making Windows make sense in this cloud-focused Microsoft back when he ran that business. And that one result was Windows as a Service (WaaS), a method by which Microsoft updates this monolithic, legacy software stack as if it were an online service. There were other byproducts, of course, one of which led to his ouster: Windows only makes sense at a certain volume, and so Terry was bullied into getting Windows 10 to one billion users more quickly than was possible. (Announcing that goal was probably his fault/responsibility, but the shifty methods he used to try and reach this unobtainable goal were absolutely his fault.)

Tied to this, of course, is the reality that Windows is not the place to be at Microsoft now. If you are anyone who’s anyone or seek to be, you work on high profile/high reward businesses or you try to create them. This is the opposite of a virtuous cycle: when you drive the best people away, the product suffers, and as the product becomes less desirable, the best people stay away. Etc.

The second point is related and the best description of this problem I’ve seen comes from Corey Doctorow, who describes the effect you’re seeing as “enshittification.”

“Enshittification is a seemingly inevitable consequence arising from the combination of the ease of changing how a platform allocates value, combined with the nature of a ‘two-sided market,’ where a platform sits between buyers and sellers, holding each hostage to the other, raking off an ever-larger share of the value that passes between them,” he writes. “When a platform starts, it needs users, so it makes itself valuable to users … Surpluses are first directed to users; then, once they’re locked in, surpluses go to suppliers; then once they’re locked in, the surplus is handed to shareholders and the platform becomes a useless pile of shit. From mobile app stores to Steam, from Facebook to Twitter, this is the enshittification lifecycle.”

And to Windows as well. For many years, Windows was a platform we paid for and Microsoft sold it to developers as the place for apps. But with the rise of mobile, especially, Windows became less desirable to developers, and Microsoft’s various efforts to woo them all failed. And so Windows evolved (devolved?) such that it was no longer a paid product. (That was part of that strategy to get to one billion Windows 10 users, as noted above.) But Microsoft still needs to monetize it and that user base. And so we have more and more ads, tracking, crapware/sponsorware, and subscriptions. It’s the enshittification of Windows.

There are many, many more of these examples from Microsoft and it got me thinking as to why?  Why can one of the most powerful tech companies do so poorly on making what I would call great products, not just ok or meh products, but great ones that everyone likes or wants to use?  Why can’t the direction from the top, being Satya, be more direct and involved with his managers to ensure the products they have are best in class and what people actually want?

Maybe this is just a natural process for a company as big and diversified as Microsoft. One could probably make the case that the enshittification of Teams is well underway, for example, and that product is core to today’s company. Even Apple has suffered from this, as anyone stuck with a butterfly keyboard-based MacBook could tell you. I’ve often wondered about how any company so full of smart people can make so many bad decisions, but maybe there are forces beyond their control. This is the dark side, the underbelly, of being so big. There’s corporate inertia.

I’m also reminded of that old argument around whether it’s best to get all your solutions from one company or to cherry-pick the best solutions, each from whatever company. The idea here is that one company can provide seamless experiences (Apple, classic example) but that maybe betting on the company that does just that one thing (Dropbox, perhaps, Spotify) is smarter because they will listen to your complaints and react accordingly. There are good reasons to go in either direction. (And let’s not forget that disruption will rarely come from a dominant company; that usually happens elsewhere unless that company is so dominant it can prevent that. This is one of the big issues with Big Tech today, of course. They’re holding back innovation.)

It seems like we get 1-2 steps forward, and then 1-2 steps backward with Microsoft and almost anything they release.  Xbox seems to be an exception to this, but it took a leadership change a few years ago for that to happen.

I agree but then we’re hyper-focused on Microsoft here. Looking at some of the crazy issues we’ve seen with Google, Amazon, or other companies, I suspect we’d see as much dysfunction. It’s kind of like meeting someone else’s family and realizing they’re as screwed up as yours.

I now step off the soapbox.

No need. You’re onto something.

You’re getting an update! And you’re getting an update!

wright_is asks:

One of this month’s zero-days, CVE-2023-21823, seems to need, at least partially, updates from the Microsoft App Store. It looks like the core of the update comes over the normal Windows Update/WSUS route, but the in-box apps need to be updated over the store. Given that in every company I have ever worked at, the Store is blocked by policy, that is going to leave a lot of devices vulnerable.

My understanding of this vulnerability is that it’s tied to a component used by mobile apps that are serviced through the Store. (It is also a problem on Android, where Microsoft has issued an update for OneNote for Android for the same issue.) This is interesting on a number of levels, but it suggests that hackers have discovered what now appears to be an obvious downside to Windows having multiple vectors for updating software that ships as part of Windows: some are updated through Windows Update and some are updated through the Store. Which, let’s face it, has never been accused of being high quality.

With regards to your blocking of the Store by policy, this is an interesting wrinkle because there are some system-level bits that are updated that way. The Microsoft advisory notes that customers that disable automatic updates through the Store can check manually, but I’m guessing your organization blocks this completely?

I guess we are going to have to start removing Notepad, Paint, Calc etc. from the PCs we prepare and find some third party equivalent – any chance of a site-license for your notepad replacement? ?

Ha. Well, yeah, increasingly those kinds of apps are updated through the Store, which makes sense generally because they might be updated more frequently than Windows. But it’s a problem for organizations that lock down their environment.

Seriously though, there are a lot of apps which can’t even be deinstalled, such as the Xbox Game Bar, why on earth a business user would need this is beyond me… Those apps are never going to get updated and it sounds like they could pose a security threat.

I agree. Maybe this event will trigger a rethinking.

As installing software without permission is a disciplinary offense, it has never been an issue, until now, that the Store is blocked. But with more and more of the in-box apps moving to the Store for updates, it is going to cause major headaches in terms of security management. Is the new Windows Explorer going to go the same way?

I watched the WinUI community call I wrote about yesterday and then spoke with Rafael Rivera about what the switch to the WinAppSDK really means. And between us, I think we arrived at the truth: the current implementation of File Explorer is what I wrote it is, a classic Win32 app with a WinUI 2 front-end, created with XAML Islands, that helps it look more native in Windows 11. On the call, the WinUI team admitted they were using a special internal version of XAML Islands that will never be made public to make that work, and Rafael believes this to be the case for the coming WinAppSDK version. But here’s the thing: you can’t “migrate” a desktop app to WinAppSDK, so Microsoft is almost certainly doing here what they did with XAML Islands, using code that will never be made public. It’s a kludge of some kind.

(Also, Rafael told me that the only WinUI bits in File Explorer now are at the top of the app—the tabs/title bar, command bar, navigation controls, the address bar, and the search bar—and that the rest is still native code. We haven’t seen the new version yet, but I bet that doesn’t change. Either way, it’s a weird hybrid app, almost like Edge.)

To your question, no, I don’t think you need to worry about File Explorer being updated through the Store (though, never say never, I guess). This app has been updated three times since the initial release of Windows 11 (well, twice, plus that original version) and it will be updated again this year. But each of those updates came via a cumulative update in Windows Update. I don’t see that changing. Indeed, I don’t think it’s needed to change as much as it has already.

Movies & TV

helix2301 asks:

Paul, I have been reading the book, and it’s great by the way but it got me thinking. My question is about movies and tv shows the app is on both Windows and Xbox and they are even available on the app on phone. Microsoft got out of music, books, streaming, and other products that they were losing money on. Do you think this app and or service has stuck around because people watch movies on their laptop or more likely there Xbox that is connected to the TV?

Thanks! That’s a good guess, but I’m still curious why Microsoft bothers with this service since there are so many places—Apple TV, Amazon Prime, etc.—to buy and rent movies. It just seems so off-brand.

A couple of other points about Movies & TV, one of which is related to the conversation above.

As we move forward in time, it’s becoming more and more obvious in Windows 11 which apps/UIs are “new” (have the Windows 11 look and feel) and which are old, and have a Windows 10 or even a Windows 8.x look and feel. And Movies & TV is an example of a Windows 10 UI: this app has not been updated for Windows 11 and I’m curious when it will be. Or, maybe if it will be: Microsoft explicitly stated that it is moving local video playback out of Movies & TV and into Media Player (which is “new” in the sense that it is obviously just the old Xbox Music and Groove Music app updated to look more native in Windows 11 and to add video support). So Movies & TV will either be updated to look like Windows 11 and to remove the local video stuff, making it a front-end for the buying/renting service. Or it goes away. We’ll see.

Secondly, Movies & TV dates back to the old “One Windows” strategy where the Universal Windows Platform (UWP) was used to create apps that could run across multiple Microsoft platforms. When first announced, this included Windows PCs, Windows tablets, Windows Phones, Surface Hub, Xbox (One), and HoloLens. But today, Microsoft has moved past UWP to the Windows App SDK. The cross-platform dream is over. What this means to Movies & TV is that these will be two separate apps in the future (one for Windows and one for Xbox). Or, again, that it goes away.

I don’t believe Windows needs Movies & TV. And that it not being on mobile is everything you need to know about Microsoft’s seriousness here. That said, the firm will need to do something to accommodate those who purchased content from them. So closing the service could be costly. Some of that would be handled by Movies Anywhere. But some would require Microsoft to pay some service to take on those purchases.

Microsoft + Activision Blizzard

christianwilson asks:

The Microsoft/Activision challenges are mounting. It’s not looking too positive for the acquisition to occur. How are you feeling about the likelihood it eventually gets approval?

I still feel like this happens. These regulatory concerns were all predictable with the exception of the United States, which has taken on the wrong company to show that it’s serious about Big Tech. But yeah, I do think it goes through. The question is what Microsoft has to give up. To date, I’ve always thought that was obvious—promises for various franchises being made for other platforms, etc.—and it is easily shown that Microsoft’s rivals are much worse at keeping important titles on their platforms already. But the UK raised the specter of excluding Call of Duty from the deal. That’s an interesting wrinkle that I think betrays a lack of understanding of what’s important here. But interesting nonetheless.

We’ll see. But should this deal go through, Microsoft will have successfully gained entry into mobile gaming and will not have moved its third (or fourth) place standing in the industry in the slightest. Which is exactly why the deal should go through.

Honestly, I’m curious when the cost of defending the deal becomes so great it just gives up.

Bad Bing

cwfinn asks:

Am I the only one experiencing frequent “Bing not responding” messages? It just freezes then after a minute or so, recovers life.

I have not experienced that, but it is perhaps not surprising that this service is getting hammered right now. This is obviously why there’s a waiting list: Microsoft is trying to see what the demand looks like so it can provide the appropriate resources.

For whatever it’s worth, I have not been invited into the preview, nor have I taken the steps Microsoft says might place me closer to the top of the list. But when I use Bing with the Dev version of Microsoft Edge and choose the Chat function, I can use it all day without restriction.

Gates and Jobs

sabertooth920 asks:

Since Bill Gates still has at least a curator’s role at Microsoft, what do you think the modern Apple would look like had Jobs lived?  Also, did anyone ever figure out what Jobs meant when he remarked to Isaacson that he had finally cracked TV?

Regarding Gates, I have heard from multiple sources that he is still very much engaged at Microsoft and still does “Billg reviews” with product teams. This, despite public announcements about him no longer playing a role at the company. I find this curious.

But it’s hard to know how Jobs might have reacted to the market forces that occurred since his passing. But I think it’s fair to say that his string of back-to-back (to-back) successes would have ended regardless. And he was about the same age as Gates and surely would have lost his fervor as Apple grew more and more successful. If anything, he would have been more spiteful than Tim Cook has been, and Apple would likely have gone down some dark paths. (Let’s not forget that he started an illegal price-fixing cabal with book publishers to defeat Kindle at the same time Apple launched the iPad. This was one year before his passing.)

Regarding the TV strategy, the consensus on that seems to be that “cracking” the TV amounted to getting content publishers in that market to agree to do what music publishers had done with the iTunes Store. This was never going to happen, however. And you can see the results today in all of the niche online video services like Paramount+, Peacock, and the like. These guys can’t get past the cable model, even though cable TV usage is falling through the floor. There will be a reckoning in this market.

It’s hard not to wonder what Jobs might have done with Siri and the Watch, and whether he would have allowed mistakes like the butterfly keyboard, which reads like a “what would Steve Jobs do?” moment gone wrong.

Windows Weekly

wunderbar asks:

This is as much a comment as a question.  Can we please get Windows Weekly back down to 2 hours?  I’ve been listening/watching to it since somewhere around 2008 and the last few weeks of shows around 3 hours is just too much, to the point where I just can’t listen to them.  I know part of it is getting a new rhythm with a new co-host, and I’m all for the brown liquor talk, but please, 2 hours not 3.

So, this is something I’ve been fretting about for months. One thing people might not have considered is how this impacts me. But Windows Weekly has historically run from 2 to 4 pm my time, and it now runs from 2 to 5 pm my time, which is problematic. This show was already very taxing for me, and I’m wasted when it’s done, and that’s even more true now than before.

But I guess on the one hand, I would argue that a longer show can simply be enjoyed over more sessions. In the early days, especially, I often got requests to make the show longer, often from people like truckers who spent hours and hours on the road. But yeah, I think two hours is enough. Leo did comment on the length this past episode, which suggest that he’s gotten complaints about it. That said, this episode was 10 minutes shy of 3 hours.

Ultimately, this is up to TWiT. We have never discussed it, but if a longer show is somehow better for them, then that’s that. It’s not something I can control. Well, unless I sabotage the notes, I guess. And I am not doing that. But I will ask about this next week.