In Defense of Windows 10 on Snapdragon (Premium)

With Snapdragon-based PCs suddenly looming on the horizon, there’s been a lot of discussion about the new platform’s viability. This is a conversation worth having, but my take on Windows 10 on Snapdragon is simple: This is the push that Windows needs to drive its a new decade of innovation and change.

Yes, I’ve written a few “this is the future”-type posts recently. And I hope it’s obvious that I believe that some combination of Windows 10 S, the Always Connected PC initiative, and the unique benefits that Qualcomm and Snapdragon bring to the table forms the basis for a modern, always-connected, and highly-mobile future in which Windows 10 can thrive.

But there are doubts. And doubters. So I’d like to address some of the concerns and explain why none of our short-term complaints matter all that much.

For example, Brad recently wrote about what he sees as the big problems for Windows 10 on Snapdragon. His post was focused on the enterprise, but the complaints should resonate with any PC user. They are:

Always-connected functionality already exists on today’s PCs. And more are coming: Though some still seem to not understand this, the Always Connected PC initiative includes both Intel/x86 and Qualcomm/Snapdragon-based PCs.

Battery life. The two Windows 10 on Snapdragon PCs that we know about so far both deliver battery life in the 20-22 hour range, as rated by the manufacturers. But these figures are probably inflated, and the best Intel-based PCs today already deliver excellent all-day battery life. It’s not hard to charge a PC (or phone) overnight; we do that already.

Performance will be terrible. Based on our hands-on experience with the first two Windows 10 on Snapdragon PCs, performance will be middling, and possibly somewhere in the Intel Atom/Core m3 range.

Security should be more of a push. The biggest advantage of Windows 10 on Snapdragon that neither Microsoft nor Qualcomm seem to be focusing on is security. “[These] machines should be immune to malicious Win32 applications,” Brad writes. That’s a big advantage.

To be clear, these points are all valid. But I’m looking at this from a bigger picture perspective. That is, the arrival of the Asus NovaGO and HP ENVY x2 next Spring, alongside whatever other Snapdragon-based PCs isn’t really the point. The point is that the underlying PC platform is finally benefiting from some very real improvements that can only come about because Microsoft decided to open up Windows in an unprecedented way to the world’s best mobile chipset designers.

Unprecedented, you say? But Paul. Microsoft made Windows RT before. And that was a fricking disaster.

Right. But that’s why this new push, this combination of Windows 10 S, Always Connected PC, and Snapdragon will not be a disaster: This time, Microsoft and its partners are getting it right. They’ve learned from the mistakes of the past.

First, let’s talk about Windows 10 S. I’ve savaged this OS because it is too much of a hard-line take on where Windows should be headed, delivered ahead of schedule. But Windows 10 S is the future of Windows, because the decision makers at Microsoft who decide such things have told me so. My issues with Windows 10 S are of timing. This is the correct destination. It’s just not ready today.

By comparison, Windows RT was the wrong idea, in retrospect, because it was even more hard-line. It was a one-way dead-end street, and if you got to Windows RT and decided that what you really needed was “real” Windows—desktop applications and drivers—well, tough: You were out of luck. Worse, Windows RT was based on Windows 8, which was the most ill-conceived version of Windows ever, and a poster child for why Satya Nadella today demands that the different parts of Microsoft work together and not be openly hostile to each other. Windows RT and Windows 8 were basically a F$%k you to the Windows phone team. And it set back Microsoft by many years.

Second, we need to address the elephant in the room: Intel. Intel is a lot of things, but for all its successes, it is still very much a bored monopolist with no real reason to compete in the PC space. And the one area where Intel has really let down Microsoft, and Windows, and users of Windows, is mobility. Instant On PCs based on Intel’s platforms do not come on instantly and in many cases don’t wake up properly at all. Power management is the weak link.

Over in the mobile world, chipset makers like Qualcomm deal with a scale that Intel can’t even fathom: The size of the smartphone market alone is many times bigger than that of the PC (or server) market. These devices are expected to work all day every day, to wake instantly when picked up, to be connected at all times and switch seamlessly between different networks and different network types, and to perform every manner of task.

By bringing Qualcomm’s know-how to the PC space, we can collectively benefit from their years of experience across billions and billions of always-connected mobile devices. Windows itself will become better, and that’s true even if you decide to stick with Intel hardware. Over time, the learnings that Microsoft makes from working on leading-edge ARM hardware will inform the design decisions it makes. And Intel—and AMD, too—will need to address the new expectations in their own chipsets. Speaking to experts at the recent Snapdragon Tech Summit, I was told to expect Intel to catch up in many ways within two years.

I also know from my off-the-record conversations with upper-level Microsoft executives that Intel is, in fact, the number one reason that Windows 10 on Snapdragon is even happening. Microsoft, perhaps better than any company, understands the danger of a monoculture in which the primary technology provider has no real competition to speak of. That is not a world in which innovation happens quickly, if at all.

Third, consider Brad’s—and others’—complaints more directly. We already have Always Connected PCs, sort of. We already have pretty good battery life, and we absolutely do have excellent performance. Windows 10 security is arguably excellent already, but I agree that further protection from Win32/desktop-based malware is desirable. (In fact, I believe that Win32/desktop compatibility needs to be phased out completely, but over time.)

The first Windows 10 on Snapdragon PCs are aiming for the middle of the market. They will cost in the $500 to $700 range, above the “burner” low-end PCs and Chromebooks, but well below the premium PC segment inhabited by Surface, MacBook Pro, HP Spectre/Elite, Dell XPS, ThinkPad, and other brands.

This is purposeful. It’s purposeful because that is where the value proposition of Windows 10 on Snapdragon PCs hits today. In the same way that Microsoft can argue—thanks in part to its telemetry—that Windows 10 S today does make sense for some group of users, it can argue similarly for Windows 10 on Snapdragon. That is, some people will prefer the epic battery life and standby of such PCs over all else. They will be OK with the performance. Will appreciate the security, and the reliability (assuming they stick with Windows 10 S).

But these PCs, even in this first generation, are not dead-ends, are not one-way roads. If a user of a Windows 10 on Snapdragon PC wishes to run even a single desktop application, they can do so. No, it’s not the solution I personally would choose, but the upgrade to Windows 10 Pro is immediate and is free. And it solves that problem. Microsoft’s x86 emulation software for ARM is a key reason why this scheme makes sense at all.

That desktop apps will more slowly on Snapdragon—and they will—is immaterial. Anyone buying a PC to run Photoshop, Premiere, a modern game, or whatever will very specifically choose a high-performance PC. And today, for the foreseeable future, that PC will be based on Intel (or AMD) chipsets. And not just Intel/AMD but high-end chipsets from one of those companies.

This diversity, this choice, isn’t a weakness, it is the central strength and advantage of the PC ecosystem. And the introduction of Qualcomm and Snapdragon will only make it better. For all of us.

On that note, I can’t wait to own a Snapdragon-based PC. I know it probably won’t meet my needs. Or your needs, for that matter. But enthusiasts, professional creators, and power users are not the markets Microsoft and Qualcomm are shooting for. This is about the mainstream future of the platform. This is bigger than us. And it is so desperately needed.