Windows 10 is Now on 400 Million Devices

Windows 10 is Now on 400 Million Devices

It’s been three long months since Microsoft announced a new figure for Windows 10 usage. But the firm today said that there now over 400 million active Windows 10 devices around the world. So Windows 10 adoption has slowed dramatically since the free upgrade offer ended.

This is as expected. But I think the new number provides an interesting peek at the uptick rate we can expected going forward.

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So let’s review the math.

Microsoft last provided a Windows 10 usage milestone on June 29, when it said that there were 350 million active Windows 10 devices. At that time, I noted that the Windows 10 adoption had accelerated from the previous milestone, hitting an average of almost 29 million new devices per month.

But 50 million additional devices over three months is a much slower pace of about 17 million per month. This is the slowest rate since Windows 10 was first announced.

Again, no surprise there: Windows 10 was free for its first year, and over that time period it averaged roughly 31.25 million new devices per month (if you assume a figure of 375 million after one year, as I do).

Does this mean that Windows 10 will see fewer than 20 million new devices each month, on average, going forward? No, of course not. There’s no way to accurately gauge how things will go, given that most future devices will be new PCs purchased by businesses or consumers, or business PCs upgraded to Windows 10. Those systems will be added to the list according to seasonal variances and business deployment schedules.

That said, I’ve often discussed how Microsoft artificially reported Windows 7 license sales during that product’s lifetime, evening out the numbers so that it appeared that 20 million new licenses were sold each month. So while Microsoft no longer uses that kind of accounting, it’s still an interesting number for comparison.

So it’s less, sure. But 17 million new Windows 10 devices per month is a real world number, whereas licenses sold is more nebulous: Many of those licenses were never actually used, or were used to install other versions of Windows. (Some today are likely running Windows 10, too.) So while 17 million is technically less than 20, it’s not really less. This is a solid number.

If that 17 million number holds steady—which, it won’t month to month, though I wonder about long-term—how long will it take Windows 10 to hit the one billion milestone?

35 and a half months, or about three years.

That means that Windows 10 will hit the 1 billion milestone in roughly four years, which is about 25 percent longer than the 2-3 years that Microsoft originally expected. And to be clear, Microsoft does still expect to hit the 1 billion number: I was told last night that they had simply “shifted the time frame a bit.”

My expectation is that Windows 10 adoption will actually accelerate to about 20 million per month on average, as more and more businesses come online with the new system. But even at 17 million, Microsoft is in a good place.

Disclaimer. If you’re really paying attention to the math, you will have noticed that I expected to see 375 million active Windows 10 devices by the end of July 29; that would mean that about 25 million new devices came online in July alone. If true, the average for August and September is thus only 12.5 million per month. I’ll just say that this is a guessing game, and that the truth is in there somewhere. And heck, what’s a few million between friends?

 

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Conversation 95 comments

  • 2

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 7:40 am

    <p>First. :)</p>

    • 49

      Premium Member
      26 September, 2016 - 7:45 am

      <p>Is the worst.</p>

      • 699

        26 September, 2016 - 9:44 am

        <p>Brad, I notice the comment number isn’t updating correctly on the homepage (at least on my end.) For example, it shows 0 comments on everything, but when you click on the article it shows everything below it like it should. Good job, though, guys! Looks good. Can’t wait for the new podcast/s. Best of luck!</p>

        • 2

          Premium Member
          26 September, 2016 - 9:46 am

          <p>Thanks … Tim is on this now.</p>

        • 3958

          Premium Member
          26 September, 2016 - 9:46 am

          <p>I also noticed that the sorting buttons don’t seem to work.</p>

      • 5234

        26 September, 2016 - 10:07 am

        <p>Where can we send bug checks relating to the comment system to?</p>

      • 5234

        26 September, 2016 - 10:13 am

        <p>I found 2 bugs, plus 1 security problem so far.</p>

        • 1

          Premium Member
          26 September, 2016 - 1:24 pm

          <blockquote>
          <p>I found 2 bugs, plus 1 security problem so far.</p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>You can send bugs directly to me at [email protected]</p>

      • 907

        26 September, 2016 - 12:18 pm

        <p>Brad, are you going to continue with the Sams Report? Is Paul still planning on doing What the Tech and Windows Weekly as well as the podcasts?</p>

        • 49

          Premium Member
          26 September, 2016 - 4:31 pm

          <p>The Sams report will continue on like always, nothing will change with it.</p>

    • 639

      Premium Member
      26 September, 2016 - 4:34 pm

      <p>You just made me want to start a blog just so I can reply "first" to my own post!</p>

  • 2

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 7:40 am

    <p>Second. :)</p>

    • 49

      Premium Member
      26 September, 2016 - 7:45 am

      <p>I will ban you.</p>

    • 5475

      26 September, 2016 - 7:46 am

      <p>Are all the comments blue?</p>

      • 49

        Premium Member
        26 September, 2016 - 8:03 am

        <p>No they will not, only author accounts are blue.</p>

      • 5234

        26 September, 2016 - 9:54 am

        <p>Paul &amp; Brad haz sad comments.</p>

  • 538

    26 September, 2016 - 7:43 am

    <p>Fancy!</p>

  • 600

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 7:46 am

    <p>Not really anything to say on the post.</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Just wanted to try the new comments</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

  • 115

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 7:46 am

    <p>Second! ;-)</p>

  • 661

    26 September, 2016 - 7:51 am

    <p>what is the "p" link in the comment entry box ?</p>
    <p>it seems to select all the text in the text box – but "p"?</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

    • 1

      Premium Member
      26 September, 2016 - 8:25 am

      <p>That is just indicating that you are in a "paragraph". &nbsp;You’ll notice if you push the&nbsp;<em>I&nbsp;</em> in the toolbar it "p &gt;&gt; em" indicating that you are using the HTML tag "em" or Italics. &nbsp;It’s just to help you see what your text formatting is. &nbsp;You can learn more here:&nbsp;https://www.tinymce.com/</p&gt;

  • 1583

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 7:52 am

    <p>Fifth!</p>

  • 158

    26 September, 2016 - 7:53 am

    <p>&nbsp;Third?</p>

  • 5477

    26 September, 2016 - 7:57 am

    <p>"If that 17 million number holds steady&mdash;which, it won&rsquo;t month to month, though I wonder about long-term&mdash;how long will it take Windows 10 to hit the one billion milestone?</p>
    <p>35 and a half months, or about three years.</p>
    <p>That means that Windows 10 will hit the 1 billion milestone in roughly four years, which is about 25 percent longer than the 2-3 years that Microsoft originally expected. And to be clear, Microsoft does still expect to hit the 1 billion number: I was told last night that they had simply &ldquo;shifted the time frame a bit.&rdquo;</p>
    <p>My expectation is that Windows 10 adoption will actually accelerate to about 20 million per month on average, as more and more businesses come online with the new system. But even at 17 million, Microsoft is in a good place."</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Microsoft has killed any chances of reaching 1 Billion devices, by ending the free upgrade offer. Sure you can still&nbsp;do a digital entitlement, however, Microsoft is not naging people&nbsp;to upgrade to Windows 10. &nbsp;Additionally, people are not buying new computers, like they did in the past. So, Windows 10 reaching anything close the 1 Billion mark is implausible too.</p>

  • 5475

    26 September, 2016 - 8:04 am

    <p>OK these comments are looking good…and pics too!</p>

  • 2362

    26 September, 2016 - 8:04 am

    <p>I know they aren’t anywhere near their original goal but 400 million ain’t too shabby.</p>

    • 308

      Premium Member
      26 September, 2016 - 11:32 am

      <p>It doesn’t seem to be translating into any App growth for the platform. I am starting to wonder if its not the toal number of Windows 10 users but the device which they are using&nbsp;such as&nbsp;phone vs. PC. I understand that Windows Phone wasn’t ever gong to have the usage numbers of IOS or Android but I can’t help but&nbsp;wonder if Microsoft&nbsp;had&nbsp;not&nbsp;given up on Windows Phone before the&nbsp;UWP platform was even ready then&nbsp;we might be seeing&nbsp;more apps come to the Windows 10 platform. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

      • 907

        26 September, 2016 - 11:43 am

        <p>I feel MS massively midjudged how difficult it was going to be to coax traditional desk top users into the store and store apps. Those users who are the massive majority of users will stay with their traditional desk top programmes. This is why developers in general aren’t interested in UWP. MS has a battle on their hands and good luck getting these users talking to their pc.</p>

  • 5482

    26 September, 2016 - 8:08 am

    <p>New comment system looks awesome guys!</p>

  • 4083

    26 September, 2016 - 8:10 am

    <p>10th (?) ;-D</p>

  • 127

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 8:18 am

    <p>I am waiting&nbsp;to&nbsp;write&nbsp;comment no 112, just like my Alpha Member number. Oh wait….. ;)</p>

    • 699

      26 September, 2016 - 9:39 am

      <p>Me too, Bart. Oh wait… I thought my Alpha number was smaller, i feel like less of a man now, jk&nbsp;lol</p>

  • 5486

    26 September, 2016 - 8:19 am

    <p>What would be really interesting (and MS will never tell this) is how many of that 50m were aquired in the last 30 days of Windows 10 being ‘free’ knowing the last official announcement was on June 29th. That would give you a real idea about how much things have slowed down, because the figures from Aug/Sep would be purely people either paying for the upgrade or buying a new PC. Now those figures would be interesting, and I think they would show a real dramatic slowdown, and I mean substantial. The only real way of know would be if MS *ever* release any more figures.</p>

  • 224

    26 September, 2016 - 8:25 am

    <p>I do wonder how PC sales will fare going forward…20 million/month in the future is assuming they don’t flatline, which with Android apps on ChromeOS is something that might just happen. The bank that I work for is only developing web apps going forward, some of which already have Android apps…and this a heavily conservative bank, I imagine smaller businesses are taking a long hard look as to why they actually need Windows except for Excel…Brad had an excellent writeup on Excel, it truly is the one Windows app that is unmatched in power and complexity by competitors.</p>

  • 5234

    26 September, 2016 - 8:26 am

    <p>Has anybody done the math on how many newly-shipped computers are contributing to usage numbers?</p>

  • 129

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 8:29 am

    <p>ALPHA! (I’m done)</p>

    • 2

      Premium Member
      26 September, 2016 - 9:47 am

      <p>:D</p>

      • 907

        26 September, 2016 - 11:32 am

        <p>When do you show us our secret hand shake :)</p>

  • 5108

    26 September, 2016 - 8:34 am

    <p>Hmmm… I could use a measly 400 million customers. :-)</p>

    • 5234

      26 September, 2016 - 10:01 am

      <p>That have paid you nothing?</p>

  • 459

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 8:36 am

    <p>400 million is a great number. Now, let’s get going with those UWP apps!</p>

    • 650

      Premium Member
      27 September, 2016 - 5:46 am

      <p>No way, it’s already dead in the water. Time to polish up the win32 API again…</p>

  • 1792

    26 September, 2016 - 9:18 am

    <p>So he said "400 million active Windows 10 devices"</p>
    <p>PCs, Xbox, Hololens and phone. I wonder what the breakdown looks like…..</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

    • 5504

      26 September, 2016 - 12:24 pm

      <p>"Devices" is mostly marketing, the vast majority are PCs.</p>

      • 5508

        26 September, 2016 - 2:30 pm

        <p>At this time PCs are ~85%. Overtime the non-PCs will increase.</p>

    • 5508

      26 September, 2016 - 2:25 pm

      <p>Yes, definitely HoloLens. :)</p>

  • 447

    26 September, 2016 - 9:18 am

    <p>&nbsp;Just posting to see what my Alpha # is…. :)</p>

    • 124

      Premium Member
      26 September, 2016 - 2:25 pm

      <p>Not a bad idea JWayneG Alpha Menber #421.&nbsp; So now I get to see mine.&nbsp; Thanks!</p>

      • 709

        Premium Member
        27 September, 2016 - 12:47 pm

        <p>In that case, let’s figure out what mine is :)</p>

  • 230

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 9:20 am

    <p>Clearly, their numbers are wrong.&nbsp; 400,000,002 as of yesterday.&nbsp; Thanks to the "you actually still can upgrade to Windows 10…" advice that Paul has given in various arenas, I upgraded my girlfriend’s two HP laptops yesterday (also removing an incredible amount of cruft).</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>As to the new comments… I like them, and sure hope the twerps who snipe at each other didn’t become premium members… of course if they could afford THAT, they’d probably also be able to afford moving out of their mom’s basements… :)</p>

  • 1063

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 9:30 am

    <p>One has to wonder what these numbers would have been without the forced get Windows 10 campaign. &nbsp;Would it be more or less. &nbsp;I feel less, because it gave the FUD some crediblity.</p>

  • 3061

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 9:36 am

    <p>Last?</p>

  • 442

    26 September, 2016 - 9:41 am

    <p>Seems to me that a billion users in 4 years is not too bad.&nbsp; Anyone have data on how long other tech has taken to get to this number?&nbsp; Past Windows versions, smartphones sales etc etc.</p>
    <p>P.S. love the new comment engine.</p>

  • 5394

    26 September, 2016 - 9:45 am

    <p>What will 1 Billion installs mean to Windows?&nbsp;In 4 years, I expect the initial installers to have moved on to new computers so there wouldn’t be 1 Billion&nbsp;current users.</p>

    • 442

      26 September, 2016 - 9:50 am

      <p>Numbers like this are easy today for most companies.&nbsp; They usually report the current active license checks done in the last 30 days.&nbsp; So it’s probably pretty accurate.</p>

  • 5234

    26 September, 2016 - 9:50 am

    <p><em>"Does this mean that Windows 10 will see fewer than 20 million new devices each month, on average, going forward? No, of course not. There&rsquo;s no way to accurately gauge how things will go, given that most future devices will be new PCs purchased by businesses or consumers, or business PCs upgraded to Windows 10."</em></p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>I don’t think you can accurately say this. &nbsp;Last quarter only saw 62.4 million new PC’s, and they’re still in decline. &nbsp;They’re already at less than&nbsp;20 million per month when you consider that 7.1% of IDC’s worldwide quarterly totals are Mac’s.</p>
    <p>https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS41584116</p&gt;
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

  • 3118

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 10:04 am

    <p>just wanted to know what my menmber # was.</p>

  • 370

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 10:05 am

    <p>Team @Thurrott.com,</p>
    <p>This look and functionality is fabulous.</p>
    <p>Thanks</p>

  • 440

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 10:16 am

    <p>Nice jobon the new comment systems. The Premium articles have been great.</p>

  • 863

    26 September, 2016 - 10:22 am

    <p>Commenting just to try out the new system!</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

  • 1329

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 10:38 am

    <p style="padding-left: 30px;">only because everyone else is… Alpha! :D</p>

  • 5496

    26 September, 2016 - 10:58 am

    <p>Login isn’t complete. I signed in with twitter. So now when I sign in, I have to go back to the registration page. Then once I say sign in with twitter. It doesn’t redirect me back to the previous page.</p>
    <p>Login with twitter(and the others) should be an option at the top, when we click log in.</p>

  • 412

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 11:06 am

    <p>A little but on/off topic but someone stole my wife’s Samsung Note 5 yesterday…the only spare phone I had was a 950xl I was given (my work is on Verizon and I couldn’t use it). She LOVES it…so much she wants to sell her Moto 360 and get a Band 2, even if the future is uncertain…if Fitbit had notifications with Windows 10 Mobile, she would go that route.&nbsp;</p>

    • 235

      26 September, 2016 - 11:38 am

      <p>For all the complaints a lot of people, including Paul, have about the 950 XL, it’s really a very good phone. I like mine an awful lot, and the fact that it’s dual-SIM is more important to me than any apps I may currently be missing out on. Maybe I’ll find something that’s really painful to be missing out on, but for now I’m very satisfied.</p>

      • 907

        26 September, 2016 - 11:47 am

        <p>dbp, you said you may be missing out on apps. That’s the point, using WMobile is a compromise in one way or another.&nbsp;</p>

        • 412

          Premium Member
          26 September, 2016 - 12:05 pm

          <p>As nice as the 950xl is, I felt a little bad for putting her into it but that is all we had. Didn’t want to do a NEXT plan nor could we pay out of pocket for a phone. But after I loaded Facebook FB Messenger, GroupMe, Instagram, Wunderlist, Audible, Client for Google Photos, GMusic, Groove, OneDrive…she was simply OK with it all and loves the performance and look of the phone.&nbsp;</p>

  • 5496

    26 September, 2016 - 11:12 am

    <p>I think they should only be 1 commenst section. Not 2.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Non premis should be able to reply to premis.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Why do you have 2 different one anyway?</p>

  • 5496

    26 September, 2016 - 11:15 am

    <p>We can’t edit our comments.</p>
    <p>A new line is just like office. Where you have a big space between lines.</p>
    <p>We can’t block people, so I can’t block trolls.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>I prefer the old disqus.</p>

    • 907

      26 September, 2016 - 11:51 am

      <p>Give it a chance mate :)</p>

      • 5504

        26 September, 2016 - 12:26 pm

        <p>Well, there’s some value in making sure something works before you release it. You’d like the first version of a replacement to be at least as capable as the system it replaced and improve from there.</p>

        • 5496

          26 September, 2016 - 3:29 pm

          <p>Unlike disqus. I didn’t receive any email about and replies to my comment.</p>

  • 290

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 11:25 am

    <p>Looking good :)</p>

  • 907

    26 September, 2016 - 11:25 am

    <p>The problem with trying to predict the future growth of W10 is that it assumes no competitor will enter the market. Next month Google are announcing Project Andromena and if the rumors are correct then there may be genuine opposition for W10 on the desk top.</p>

  • 907

    26 September, 2016 - 11:29 am

    <p>Team, the size of theprint when typing out a comment is tiny. Any chance of making it bigger for us old guys. :)</p>

  • 907

    26 September, 2016 - 12:07 pm

    <p>Damn, I’ve got alpha number envy. I think that’s a thing :)</p>

  • 5504

    26 September, 2016 - 12:23 pm

    <p>So about 400 million PCs or hybrids.</p>

  • 5506

    26 September, 2016 - 12:40 pm

    <p>Nice!</p>

  • 305

    26 September, 2016 - 12:56 pm

    <p>nice layout guys.. looks much nicer..</p>

  • 5510

    26 September, 2016 - 2:37 pm

    <p>It’s not going to reach a billion in a few years. That’s too big a number on such a few number of years. It’s been over a year since Windows 10 was given away and over 50% of the Windows using population have chosen not to upgrade.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Businesses will only adopt windows 10 if it proves that productivity will increase by alot. That’s because Windows 10 isn’t really much different than Windows 7 and the time and expense to train people is too high. Fact is, businesses don’t want to spend. Alot of business have eliminated their IT departments and outsourced it to outside companies.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Not just that, but with the continued evolution of the Android/ChromeOS/Andromeda, as well as Macos and ios, consumers will choose a cheaper and simpler solution to get their serious work and recreation rather than the complex Windows OS.</p>
    <p>It’s not going to reach a billion.</p>

  • 389

    Premium Member
    26 September, 2016 - 3:56 pm

    <p>Interesting how Microsoft drawing the line at 1 billion Windows 10 users in 2 – 3 years created a situation where missing their prediction lessened positive Windows 10 news. 400 million Windows 10 users is impressive, especially for app developers, but unfortunately the message comes with an asterisk that user adoption is slower than predicted. How do app developers interpret this news? Imagine if Microsoft didn&rsquo;t forecast a time constraint prediction; they&rsquo;d be much more in control of their Windows 10 adoption message. App developers should see 400 million users as a positive to build UWP apps. Hopefully Microsoft learned a marketing lesson here. <br />Graduations on the new site. I&rsquo;m looking forward to all the new changes coming.</p>

  • 4450

    26 September, 2016 - 4:16 pm

    <p>Dang, my number is quite high.</p>

  • 650

    Premium Member
    27 September, 2016 - 5:50 am

    <p>On the comments system: Looks good. But, thread order doesn’t seem to work as expected (my frst post wa a reply, but got listed as a reply to the last post that was there (at all, in the forum) at the time). Also votes to one’s own post shoudn’t be allowed. :)</p>

    • 650

      Premium Member
      27 September, 2016 - 5:59 am

      <p>Update: Page refresh is sorting the reply correctly in thread-order.</p>

  • 680

    27 September, 2016 - 8:10 am

    <p>Not a bad, but the uptick should hit another spike over the next year or 2 as several large businesses start to upgrade and replace equipment. Every big organization I go into these days, I notice still has Windows 7 runnning the client computers. Even the origanization I’m affilated with, large government is still just testing Windows 10 with a look to start deployment in 2017.</p>

  • 165

    Premium Member
    27 September, 2016 - 10:13 am

    <p>Aren’t people supposed to be round?&nbsp; ;)</p>

  • 728

    29 September, 2016 - 1:22 pm

    <p>Checking my number.</p>

  • 6204

    07 October, 2016 - 2:28 am

    <p>I resigned my office-job and now I am getting paid &pound;59 hourly. How? I work over internet! My old work was making me miserable, so I was forced to try something different, two years after…I can say my life is changed-completely for the better! Check it out whaat i do</p>
    <p>&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &lt;b&gt;Netself30.Tk&lt;b&gt;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>

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