It Really is the Worst Time to Buy Anything ⭐

Everyone is familiar with the ongoing component crisis triggered by the AI gold rush and the stupidity of our government’s public policies. And everyone likely understands that prices for consumer electronics of all kinds, but most especially smartphones, tablets, PCs, and video game consoles, have gone up dramatically this year. And that these trends will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

If I’ve learned anything, it’s that knowing something and experiencing it are two different things. The most dramatic version of this is probably having a child, where you could read up on this topic for the entire 9 months leading up to the birth and it will in no way prepare you for what actually happens. The moment some doctor or nurse hands you this impossibly small and fragile living thing, wrapped in a tiny blanket and probably a tiny little cloth cap, and actually lets you walk out into the world with it unaided and unmonitored is potentially the scariest thing anyone will ever do. And yet many of us do or have done just that. And while life continues, it’s never the same.

But sticking to our little corner of the world, and lowering the stakes quite a bit, things are both familiar and terrible. That is, we’ve experienced what’s happening before to some degree, but we’ve also never really experienced this. There have been crashes–like the fabled video game downturn of 1983–recessions, pandemics, and bursting bubbles, the most recent major event perhaps being the Dot Com Bust of the early 2000s. There have been boom times intermixed with the low, of course, as we ride whatever waves in whatever eras, never quite knowing what to expect.

We’ve also seen how markets and products mature and change our habits. When the iPhone kicked off the modern smartphone era and Android responded as its perfect foil, we went through a period of several years in which it almost made sense to upgrade to a new phone every year because the advances were coming hot and heavy. That time frame slowed even for those who were most engaged in time, however, because the year-over-year advances slowed, as they must inevitably. You may recall the so-called “S years” that Apple instituted for the iPhone, a major/minor release cycle that mirrored the shifts of that time.

But then the time frames really stretched out. Two years became three and then four. Support time lines, vague at Apple and many Android vendors but more specific with Google, Samsung, and perhaps a few others, expanded to facilitate consumer expectations, helping us hold onto devices for longer. And then this component crisis landed and something interesting, a positive side-effect among all the terribleness, happened. Platform makers like Apple, Google, and Microsoft actually slowed down the introduction of big new features that many seemed to be railing against anyway, and worked to make the software running our devices work better. Our current devices.

In this new era, we can hold onto our existing devices for longer than ever before. In the sense that the best camera you own is the one you have with you at the time, the best choice for many devices is the one you already have. And even the market of those who are still foolishly clinging to this year-over-year upgrade cycle, most likely for phones, will likely shrink because of how much more expensive the new models are.

Here’s an example.

In August 2025, Google announced the Pixel 10 series of phones. The starting prices were as follows:

• Pixel 10 (12 GB of RAM, 128 GB of storage): $799
• Pixel 10 Pro (16 GB, 128 GB): $999
• Pixel 10 Pro XL (16 GB, 256 GB): $1099
• Pixel 10 Pro Fold (16 GB, 256 GB): $1799

For the past week or so, we’ve experienced several leaks about the Pixel 11 series, which Google will announce on August 12. And based on a pricing leak, the starting prices are as follows:

• Pixel 11 (12 GB of RAM, 256 GB of storage): $899
• Pixel 10 Pro (12 GB, 256 GB): $1099
• Pixel 10 Pro XL (12 GB, 256 GB): $1299
• Pixel 10 Pro Fold (12 GB, 256 GB): $1899

Basically, the base RAM on the Pro and Fold models is going down from 16 GB to 12 GB for the base models, though those who upgrade to 512 GB or more of storage will get 16 GB like last year. And the base model Pixel 11 and 11 Pro will not be offered with just 128 GB of storage, so the year-over-year price increase is real, but it’s same price for 256 GB.

A few things stand out here to me.

First, a roughly $100 increase isn’t great year-over-year, but given the situation it could be worse. I have a feeling that the coming price hikes on the next iPhones will be worse, for example.

Second, year-over-year Pixel upgrades tend to be minor at best, especially during the Tensor era, and all the rumors suggest that will be the case here.

Third and finally, Pixel devices are always on sale, so paying full price for anything Pixel is either just a bad decision or bad timing you can’t control.

More generally, one of the better bits of advice one can given in this area is to shop refurbished. I do this all the time with Apple in phones and other devices, and I do this with Lenovo and HP in the PC space, as both have incredible programs too. But with Pixel, that’s not as common or good, perhaps because the volumes are lower. So, here we must rely on two things to save money: Trade-ins, another mixed bag with Pixel, and the aforementioned sales.

And there are some terrific sales on Pixel right now, right as we’re learning about the price hikes for next-generation models that will not be major updates over the existing models. Interesting timing.

We’re not a deals site, of course, but for purposes of comparison, it’s useful to look at one that is. For example, 9to5Google reports that you can get major savings on Pixel series phones at Amazon right now. Looking at just the base models, it break down like so:

• Pixel 10: $599 ($200 off)
• Pixel 10 Pro: $699 ($300 off)
• Pixel 10 Pro XL: $949 ($250 off)
• Pixel 10 Pro Fold: $1499 ($300 off)

If you need a new Pixel, that all seems pretty reasonable, and the expected lifetime of these phones won’t be too far off from those of comparable Pixel 11 series phones because of the minor nature of every Tensor generational upgrade and Google’s support policies. Say what you will about Pixel, but Google does provide an endless stream of monthly and annual updates, and new features that debut only on the new Pixels invariably come to previous-generation devices in subsequent months. If you’re slowing down on the upgrades, this all makes sense.

As for me, I’m still on the fence when it comes to new phone purchases this fall.

Last year, I was lucky enough to get Pixel 10, 10 Pro, and 10 Pro Xl (and, later Pixel 10a) review units from Google, which helped me save some money that I then spent on a Pixel 10 Pro Fold. Which, yes, my wife is now using and loves. This year, I’m not sure if I will get anything from Google, and the Pixel 11 launch is coming up in mid-August. Assuming I get nothing from Google, I’m not sure that I can justify any Pixel 11 series purchase.

The same is true with the iPhone. Apple is expected to announce new iPhone 18 Pro and Pro models alongside the eagerly-awaited iPhone Ultra in September, and the former will be more expensive while the latter will be crazy-expensive and difficult to buy in a timely manner; given my less enthusiastic than expected reaction to the Pixel 10 Pro Fold this past year, I’m not sure a foldable makes any sense.

But Apple is also expected to release a non-Pro iPhone 18 and the iPhone Air 2 with two big upgrades–a second camera and improved battery life–in the Spring. And aside from it buying me some time, that is interesting to me. I came so close to getting the first iPhone Air, despite the many issues (which also include it having just a single speaker, bizarrely). And these upgrades might be enough for me to finally give the Air a shot. We’ll see.

Of course, by that time, the iPhone 18 Pro series will be available in Apple’s refurbished store. And while that’s always a good thing, the component crisis-triggered price hikes might make it even more so than usual.

Either way, I’m going to wait and see what happens. Try not to be compulsive and just throw money at any of these companies, some of which maybe could be swallowing some margin to help make up for issues for which they are all at least partially responsible for. But that’s not going to happen, we’re not getting carbon credit-style deals. We’re going to pay for AI, whether we want it–or use it–or not. And the only way to win that battle, may be to just sit it out.

The first gut-check moment comes in exactly one week when Samsung announces its latest foldables. That one should be easier on me, but maybe not for you. The Pixel and Apple events are generally a bigger pull. Wherever you land, good luck out there. Being able to say no is a major strength and advantage this year.