Ask Paul: October 14 (Premium)

Happy Friday! For the second time this week, I’ve raced back and forth to Philadelphia to get my passport renewed ahead of Sunday’s flight to Mexico. But that hasn’t stopped this from being another mammoth edition of Ask Paul. So let’s dive right in…

Late to market

wright_is asks:

Why is Microsoft always last to market with old Intel and AMD processors? Every year, it seems that Intel and AMD announce their new processor line-ups and a few weeks later, Microsoft launch “new” Surface devices using processors that had just been replaced.

I’ve always thought it was because of what happened in 2015 with Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book, the event I refer to as Surfacegate: Microsoft for the first and only time was first to market with a new generation of Intel processors and it really bit them hard.

There’s a whole story of Microsoft and Intel blaming each other for the issues, but I take Intel’s side on this one because I discussed it off the record with executives from the top two PC makers, and they told me the same thing: there was nothing particularly problematic about the Skylake generation of processors, and they shipped many more PCs with these exact chipsets and never had any issues. Microsoft, meanwhile, responded so poorly to Intel not taking the blame and doing the work to fix the problems that it literally refused to support multiple generations of Intel processors with Windows 10. It was a huge mess.

Why don’t they skip a generation and be the first to bring out new devices with new processors, or release them 6 months earlier, when they are still relevant?

I just think they don’t want to get burned again. But this hesitancy to be leaders in any way cuts to the heart of my Nothing But Questions (Premium) from the other day: Surface releases product updates sporadically but still manages to mostly just ship evolutionary updates, so it’s the wrong combination of uncertainty of timing and lackluster upgrade appeal. That it ships many of its new products with previous-generation internals is nothing new, but it’s never not been a problem too. I’ve long argued that underdogs in whatever market need to do more than the market leaders, not less. That could make many forms, but Microsoft doesn’t utilize any of them. Pixel devices, for example, have various issues, but they do at least undercut the flagship market leaders on price, and that’s a key way to compete effectively.

On a related note…

I know it’s hard for fans of whatever company, product, or service to listen to criticism of that thing because it feels like a personal attack. But for those who are freaking out about my criticism of Surface in this case (and, to be clear, the person who asked this question is not doing this, at all), please consider the intent. I want Surface to succeed, and I actually like the product designs for the most part. But for that to happen, Surface needs to make sense first. And shipping the same tired designs again and again, and regularly with older technology, does not make sense.

I always use this example, but it’s apt: I love my kids, of course, but when they came home with bad report cards from school, I didn’t celebrate them, I complained. And then we tried to fix the problem. I can’t fix the problems with Surface, of course, I’m on the outside. But I can point out the problems. And if you love that thing, that should be considered a good thing. Pretending everything is OK is not smart. More importantly, it’s not right.

About this week

OldITPro2000 asks:

It certainly was an interesting week for Microsoft news. Unfortunately most of it was underwhelming. The Surface event could have been a press release and I can’t imagine anyone actually wanting to have a Teams meeting with a VR headset strapped to their face while using Edge Workspaces in front of someone leafblowing.

I agree completely. It is perhaps telling that Apple is likely not going to have an event this month for whatever other products (iPad Pro update, etc.) it will soon release because they don’t warrant an event. Microsoft should be that smart. And more to the point, it should consider what having an event like that telegraphs about what they’re doing. It just makes them look bad.

One thing I noticed in this round of announcements is the trend of more 365 features becoming paywalled. It used to be that a Microsoft E5 license got you nearly everything you could want, but now there are all these add-on licenses, especially for Teams and Priva. Even in cases where an add-on license was previously required, such as for Teams Rooms, the licensing has become more expensive (one example is Teams Rooms Standard being discontinued and replaced by Teams Rooms Pro at more than two times the cost). Do you expect this to continue for new features like Loop?

I’m not sure about Loop specifically because I think this notion of Loop components existing throughout the Microsoft 365 ecosystem (in Teams, Outlook, etc.) is too pervasive to limit it to an extra paywall. But yeah, one way you can tell the pandemic is over is that Microsoft is suddenly charging extra for stuff again. That stopped during the pandemic, but now everything they announce is either available now at cost or coming later and available now in a public or private preview. This is what I call a “licensable moment,” where Microsoft examines what it has and determines what it can charge extra for. I riffed on this on Twitter yesterday:

“Introducing Microsoft Teams Premium, the better way to meet”

Sorry, we meant the paid way to meet.

Also, any thoughts on why we haven’t heard anything else about Project Volterra? I thought we would hear something this week at Ignite or at the Surface event but it’s been radio silence since Build as far as I know.

I would be surprised if Microsoft shipped Project Volterra as announced. This company just shipped a Surface Pro 9 model with the most advanced Windows on Arm chipset yet (SQ-3) and Volterra will supposedly be powered by a (potentially mid-level 7-series) Snapdragon compute platform. That doesn’t make sense. We don’t really know what that chipset is/was, but Microsoft said only that “it would deliver best-in-class AI computing capacity and efficiency.” The first part of that is all about the NPU (neural processing unit), but the efficiency bit could be any processor.

(And for whatever it’s worth, the original announcement includes this disclaimer: “Product features are subject to change and may vary by market when the product is released. Microsoft will share more details at a later date.”) My guess? It will ship later with SQ-3, not a Qualcomm part. It’s just a guess.

As for why it wasn’t mentioned in the Surface event, it’s a developer device, not something that Surface customers would want or care about.

Windows 12

JustMe asks:

This is less a question and more of a rant.  Was presented with an unwelcomed Windows Update experience recently.  Go to Windows Update and there is a big box at the top telling me Windows 11 is ready for me.  After reading, the smallest text on the page was the “Stay on Windows 10 for now” text – which I dutifully clicked.  I was then presented with a series of three splash screens, all extolling the virtues of Windows 11 and telling me to upgrade.  All three times, the smallest text was “Stay on Windows 10 for now”.  After the third screen, I was back at the desktop.  However, the system tray had the Windows updates available icon with a blue dot.  Clicking on it, I was back at windows update, with the original big box at the top.  Once again, the smallest text was “Stay on Windows 10” and after clicking that, Windows update acted normally.  The thing is – if you wanted to stay on W10, you really had to pay attention to what you were clicking.  “Normal” users would likely have missed it.  It is behavior like this that keeps me on my W10 partition and Pop_OS.  When will they understand that the more Microsoft try and force a behavior, the less likely users like myself are going to choose their products?

I don’t mean to be cynical per se, but this is classic Microsoft. It went too far with Windows 10 upgrades back in the day, but this is as bad as it can be now given the past. It’s terrible, but they really want people to upgrade.

I run W11 in a VM, and generally am not impressed.  For every experience like the one above, I continually ask myself where else are Microsoft doing this and I’ve just missed it?  There are a couple new features that are great (I am thinking specifically of Snap layouts and live captions), but I see zero reason to upgrade.  I really dislike Microsoft’s attitude towards enthusiasts and power users.  I want to like Windows.  I just dont anymore – and thats down to Microsoft.

I hope this is just a temporary shift, but we’ve seen this in the past where Microsoft ignores its enthusiast base and tries to reach mainstream users directly. This never works—Zune is my favorite example; this thing was marketed to mainstream publications while Microsoft ignored tech blogs and sites—but it’s like the tide, it has always come back. We’ll see if that happens now.

I know this is impossible to answer, but what do you believe Microsoft will do with Windows 12 when it comes to the user experience?  Will they continue their oversimplification efforts?  Do you think they will lock down more of the OS to prevent workarounds?  Will they put more of the OS in the cloud?

It’s too early to say for sure, but I assume everyone has seen that supposed Windows 12 prototype shot with the Mac-like UIs elements (floating taskbar, transparent menu bar at the top with Widgets on the left, search in the middle, and the system tray on the right). And … I like it. It’s a natural evolution of the Windows 11 UI and an obvious further step into making Windows more like the Mac. But to your point, it’s also an easier step forward from Windows 11 than is Windows 11 from Windows 10 today. Less jarring, etc. But that assumes it’s the real thing and doesn’t change. Which we can’t assume.

Beyond the UI, it’s really hard to say. I still hold out some weird hope that Microsoft will figure out the container scheme it tried in Windows 10X. I see more integration with Windows 365, for sure, but that can’t possibly be a requirement and/or for all users. I don’t think we’re going to see further simplification because that went so poorly in Windows 11, if anything, we’ll probably see them adding back more and more of what they initially killed in Windows 11. But … this is all just speculation.

I said this on First Ring Daily today, but the thing I really like about the Windows 12 shot is that it shows (hopefully) that Microsoft is at least thinking about the future and where the OS will go. Windows 11 felt (still feels) slapped together, a rush. So that, at least, is progress.

Surface mojo

eeisner asks:

How does Surface get its mojo back?

Did Surface ever have mojo? 🙂 I ask semi-rhetorically. Obviously, there was a vision for Surface, which failed. And then a single product, Surface Pro, which succeeded to some degree with version 3 and has continued forward ever since with the most minor of changes. All other Surface products have either failed outright or just made no difference at all.

While Microsoft originally put its hopes poorly into an ill-fated RT OS, the original Surface/Pro, in my opinion, had a major influence on the computing industry. I truly do believe that OEMs felt a huge need to step up their game and pivot away from focusing solely on the cheap plastic $500 machines to Surface and Macbook competitors, and it did create a new form factor that other device manufacturers copied, most notably the iPad Pro. My Apple fan-boy graphic designer colleagues were jaw-dropped at the Surface Book and Studio reveals.

Yes, but all these years later, the Mac is experiencing record sales and market share gains, and it has never incorporated touch, smartpens, convertible form factors, or anything else that differentiates a Surface Pro. What Apple did do was create a completely different product line, the iPad, and then a more creator-focused version, the iPad Pro. And Mac and iPad each significantly outsell and financially outperform Surface. Each is quite profitable where Surface is not.

Here’s what’s interesting to me: Apple spent years mocking Surface. Two turkeys don’t make an eagle. The jab about combining a refrigerator and a microwave. And then it created exactly that thing: a convertible touch computer with a detachable keyboard and a smartpen. And that was literally Microsoft’s original Surface vision, where Surface RT—the device, not the computer—would be the volume seller. And it is. For Apple. Weird, right? Microsoft took a $900 million write-off. And then Apple copied that failed product and succeeded.

There are reasons for that, of course. The amazing success of the iPad apps market, for starters. But it is rather astonishing. And it has to rankle Microsoft and the Surface team especially.

Now Surface is so stale. Outdated hardware revisions of existing form factors. Poor product launch events that seem like Panos just enjoying his voice a bit too much. Reliability issues. What needs to happen for Surface to feel exciting again? Or are we just at peak PC and no new computer will feel exciting?

Late today I will publish my review of the HP Elite Dragonfly G3; I finished it last night but have to take photos, but I’ll be out in the middle of the day because I have to pick up my passport in Philly. This PC is so close to perfect it hurts, and it really belies Microsoft’s contention that Surface exists in part to inspire PC makers to do better. PC makers are already doing better than Surface. And I’ve reviewed a bunch of those products this year.

So what can Microsoft do?

It can go down an even darker path and make certain Windows features available only on Surface, like Google does with Pixel. This would be a mistake, I think, but it’s an option.

It could kill Surface entirely because there’s no reason for it. And fold whatever work it’s doing directly into Windows for other PC makers to use (or not).

It could hold steady with the hope that some future form factor innovation (which it is either working on now or will suddenly appear one day) could retroactively “prove” that its strategy of innovating new form factors was always correct. This reminds me of Terry Myerson promising that while Microsoft had missed the smartphone wave it would not miss the next wave, all while having no idea what that next wave would even be. It’s just a blind bet on your capabilities in the future, I guess. A sucker’s bet, but … someone has to win the lottery, right?

But if Microsoft is serious about the PC maker, what it should do is more immediate. Have a predictable release cycle for all of its products. Plan and communicate that most revs will be minor, mostly internals, but that major updates will arrive every 4-5 years, in keeping with customer upgrade cycles (and similar to iPhone). Undercut the industry, including Mac, on pricing. And overachieve on functionality. Put simply, Surface is already losing money, but if Microsoft is serious, it needs to position Surface as a loss-leader: if this is what keeps people in the PC fold, so be it, we’ll try to make it up on Microsoft 365 and other subscriptions.

Otherwise, just stop pretending.

The Pixel ecosystem

sdboucher asks:

Google released the Pixel 7 & 7 plus and the Pixel watch. What are your thoughts about buying one of the phones or the watch? I did have the watch ordered since I have a Pixel 6a, but decided to cancel since I still use my Apple watch series 5 with my iPhone 12 pro max.

I will have to punt this one a bit because I am still working on a long ecosystem write-up that includes Pixel. But the short version is that I keep going back to the Google Store website and configuring a Pixel 7 or 7 Pro with various trade-in choices and thinking about it. And by the way, if you are in any way considering trading in an iPhone, Google just raised its trade-in values on Apple devices. This is the time to strike.

The Pixel Watch is more complicated. I suspect a future version will be better, with a more modern SoC, smaller bezels, and better health/fitness tracking. But this first iteration is far too compromised in each regard, and the Fitbit capabilities aren’t even on par with a Fitbit wearable. For example, Pixel Watch can’t even do automatic exercise tracking. What?

So apologies for not taking more time with this one. But I will have a separate write-up soon, hopefully. I had expected to finish it this past week.

Ignite disappointments

will asks:

I was able to attend Ignite this week in Seattle after it being on pause for the last two years.  I was honestly excited to be back networking with people and learning new things.  However, this year’s event was not what I expected even though the cost was close to the same as years to attend in person for just a couple days.  There was no Expo Hall, no Microsoft booths with engineers to talk to and learn from, no store, no backpacks, no in person Satya, no after party, and worst no Thurrott Meet & Greet or podcast to be a part of.  Ignite felt more like a sales job, that I had to pay to attend, than a training and learning event.

It’s amazing that you went. I’m sorry it wasn’t better. But even looking at it from afar, it did have a weird vibe of a small thing inside of a huge venue. It reminded me of the last Macworld Expo, which was held in Boston’s then-new convention center, and the event was tiny and occupied this little corner in a cavernous space. It was … sad.

Then I noticed something in talking with other attendees, they felt the same way.  Some of them that had been at previous Ignites commented on how basic and limited this event was, but yet Microsoft was public saying how much people “loved the event”.  This got me thinking that this feels oddly familiar, sort of the same as Windows 11.  Microsoft tells us publicly that people love the product and they give us a OS they say we want.  But when you ask anyone, they generally do not want those things and want something else.  Where was the energy?  Where was the excitement?  Is this what the new Microsoft is? If so, it stinks (and that is putting it mildly)

To defend Microsoft with regards to Ignite, I think they were in a tough spot timing-wise, and they didn’t want Ignite to turn into the next Super Spreader event. Remember, these things have to be planned very far out in advance. But maybe we will just look back at this as a step between the terrible remoteness of the pandemic and a future of bigger hybrid events where attendees can decide to be there physically or just go virtual, and have the event they expect and want either way. We’ll see. But I suppose it’s remotely possible this could be like the last COMDEX where what we really learned is that doing this in person at the scale of the past no longer makes sense. Maybe the future of this kind of thing is smaller, regional events that are basically road shows for the speakers?

I will say this. After pining for big in-person events for the past few years, I may have lost my desire to even do such a thing again. I see people I know in the industry traveling for work on Facebook, sometimes domestically, sometimes internationally, and it’s just tiring to even think about doing it myself. I’m sure there will be at least some work travel in my future. But it will be a lot less than before, and not even close.

With regard to Windows 11, I’m with you. The claims, the excitement, it all seems fake and forced. Maybe we just need to come to grips with the fact that this is where the world has taken us. It’s not like I or anyone else has some magic bullet about what Microsoft should do to Windows. Heck, I’d argue to just leave it alone, and that wouldn’t get them anywhere. I have no answers.

Stadia, PUBG, and Xbox

helix2301 asks:

I am huge PUBG fan and it has been on Stadia since day one so I never got a console I just used stadia. That being said I am on Twitter a lot and since the announcement of Stadia shutdown I see A LOT of people myself included buying Xbox consoles. Even on PUBG Twitch / Discord channels I see a lot of people saying they are buying xbox so they can play PUBG now that Stadia shutting down. In my mind there must have been people using Stadia but not enough to cover the cost to Google or to keep it running. Plus PUBG was free to play on Stadia with no subscription as well as Destiny 2. I know PUBG on Stadia is not the biggest group but that was one game I saw a lot of stadia usage in the community. I am wondering if next quarter if Microsoft will see a bump in xbox sales not just from the holiday sales but because of the shutdown of Stadia and people going else ware.

Ha! I suppose anything is possible, but one has to wonder about production constraints. I do know that the Xbox Series S is much easier to produce for whatever reason, and that would be an ideal machine for PUBG and games like PUGB. So … yeah, that would be great. (I use a Series S every day.)

I know many people don’t be leave it but I know many people that were using Stadia they just have a phone and internet and set top box. Stadia was a cheap way for them to get into gaming on there big 4K TV. I think Microsoft needs something like a cheap wireless controller and dongle to help Xcloud grow or put app on Roku, Apple TV and Google TV.I know you already wrote about xbox wireless controller. I know many people who have said to me I would do xcloud on my TV if I did not need to buy xbox for my TV.

I know xcloud coming to TV sets slowly but this would make even older TV compatible. I think Stadia had right hardware and tech but never pushed it. Xbox, Playstation and Nintendos have there own sections in Gamestop, Walmart, Target there was no Stadia section lol.

I agree that they need a device of some kind. And they are working on one. So that will happen. But yes, put Xbox Cloud Gaming everywhere: Roku, Apple TV, Fire TV, whatever. That is the key to its success, and this strategy would make even more sense with my imagined Xbox Cloud Gaming Wireless Controller. I am curious that this hasn’t happened already.

Do you think Stadia hardware was not available in stores because of the no games and accessories to sell like xbox / playstaion and accessories? No incentives for the stores to sell it?

Interesting. I had never really considered that, but you do see some Google hardware (like Nest devices) in Best Buy and elsewhere, and Pixel is sold through wireless carriers, so it’s a valid concern. But I bet this was more tied to Google being Google, a company that was born on the web and has trouble making relationships with traditional retailers. And to be fair, if someone discovered that Stadia was a thing, they could quickly buy the products they needed (a controller mostly) online and go from there.

I’m going to try and spend some time experimenting with cloud gaming services when we’re in Mexico over the next few weeks.

Ecosystem envy

spacecamel asks:

Do you think that Microsoft not having an ecosystem like Google and Apple hurts Surface and Windows?  I think having a phone that works with a watch and computer improves all and brings developers/new capacities.

Yes, it hurts. Obviously, Microsoft has whatever ecosystem it has around Windows, though I’ve long argued that this audience is far less engaged than is the case with, say, iPhone or Android users, which in many ways nullifies the impact.

This is part of that coming ecosystem post that I keep mentioning and am thus overselling now, but Microsoft isn’t getting a halo effect from Windows anymore, as it did in the 1990s and 2000s. Apple gets it with the iPhone, and now its Services business—which relies on iPhone being popular—is now its second-biggest business. And Google gets it from Search, which led to Gmail, Maps, Photos, and even Android.

Amazon is an interesting case study: after seeing modest success with Kindle and Alexa, it tried its hand at smartphones and failed, and now it is almost spamming the market with Alexa-powered smart home products and services. In doing so, it has established a leadership role in this market. And it has outplayed Google, which I did expect.

Each of these companies is currently enjoying its successes by building off them in important ways. And this is something Microsoft really isn’t doing, certainly not in the consumer space. That said, introducing a phone, or a watch, or a smart home platform, wouldn’t magically fix the problem. (In fact, it did all three, with Windows phone, Band, and Cortana, and failed.) There’s just no pull from Windows anymore: no consumers are using Windows and thinking, wow, I’d like to get me some more of this. It’s just the nature of the product that’s work-focused and not fun.

Commercial/enterprise computing is, of course, another story. A boring story, but one where Microsoft is doing well. But I assume that’s of little interest to anyone here.

Mr. Popular

christianwilson asks:

I have a site question. I understand if you can’t share the details but it is something that I have wondered about for a long time. What are the most popular topics on Thurrott.com? I don’t think comment counts are indicative of article popularity but there are topics that always inspire more discussion than others. PC and Windows news usually have more comments than others but is there a silent majority that read a different topic (Google, Xbox, etc)? Laurent and yourself cover a variety of subject matter here and I’m just curious what gets the most attention from visitors. Thanks!

So, I had to ask about this because I honestly have no idea. Like many sites, we do some end-of-year-type roundups, of course, and at that time I usually ask for that data so I can write about what the year looked like. And we also do annual reader surveys where this comes up. And I should also admit that my being more on top of this is something George has been nudging me about for years. I’m not against it, but I feel like my detachment—which I think of as a sort of separation between editorial and advertising, if not church and state—seems to have generally worked for me in the past.

Anyway, I asked.

Predictably, the top category in 2022 so far is Windows, which lands at 33 percent of all posts by page views. And that’s bigger than the next two categories, Mobile (16.1 percent) and then Cloud (13 percent), combined. The only other category that’s in that general ballpark is Hardware (8.8 percent), which is basically reviews. And then there’s a steep drop-off. Rounding out the top 12 are Dev (4.9 percent), Microsoft (3.8 percent), Games (3.75 percent), Forums (3.48 percent), Google (2.4 percent), Podcasts (1.85 percent), Apple (1.6 percent), and Wearables (1.49 percent). (I chose 12 because Forums and Podcasts aren’t really the same sort of thing, but that’s how our taxonomy works, and so it’s really the top 10.)

Interestingly (or maybe obviously, I’m not sure), the top 10 categories by the number of articles posted maps almost exactly to the list above (excluding forums and podcasts), with just a few minor position shifts. And there are specific subcategories that do well, like Windows 11 as an obvious example.

And while I don’t want to preempt the inevitable end-of-year “top posts of 2022” article, it is with some amazement and much respect that I feel compelled to report that the most-read post of the year, so far, came not from Laurent or me, but rather from a reader, Waethorn, and his forum post “How to skip Microsoft Account setup in Windows 11 Home OOBE.” That title is an SEO win for sure, and well done. But what’s funny about this is that the post has only 6 comments. And over 51,000 page views.

Tip jar

DrewTX asks:

Is there any mechanism available where grateful consumers of your output could just spontaneously tip you? It struck me that, in a way, your current revenue model is perhaps self-limiting; once a person is a Premium member, what other way can they show their appreciation beyond just renewing each year (and supporting your TWIT content)? I’m not hinting at a huge windfall payment 🙂 But it feels like a ‘Tip Paul $x’ option would be nice. Kinda like the ‘Donate’ button during YouTube livestreams.

Well. 🙂 Thank you for that, it’s much appreciated.

But right now, no, nothing like that. But I will soon be making the eBook version of the Windows 11 Field Guide available for purchase, and while Thurrott Premium members will be getting that for free, one thing that I really would appreciate is anyone who still feels compelled to buy a copy. I hope it’s obvious how much work I’ve put into it so far, based on the web version, and the final version will be much, much bigger (and a lot more work). But I don’t expect that of anyone, of course.

Beyond that, I guess anything is possible, but that’s not really where my head is at right now. But again, thanks very much.